stealing and more stealing

[rudoggy]

Is there a way to set a strategy for stealing 2nd, and not 2nd and third?

I watch every game, and while i do have stealing set high on players that have the ratings for it, they steal second and get into scoring position, but then try for third....alot. This also happens when a guy i have set to occasionally steal, somehow makes it to second, but then is off again and thrown out.
Just seems that stealing second and stealing third, from a base running/scoring positon are entirely different.

[Charlie Hough]

This is something that I requested as a change for OOTP 2007, but it didn't make it in the game. It's a pretty serious problem for anyone who likes to set strategies to steal bases fairly aggressively. Your best bet may be to set individual player settings to override the team settings when it comes to stealing bases. Maybe you'll only want to allow your players with really good stealing ability to have a higher setting, because they would at least have a better chance of stealing third.

[rudoggy]

yup, i set all players stratagies individually. So that helps with my slugs trying to steal too many. Just seems like the rate being thrown out at third is alot higher.
So it is really a chance they dont have to take, and get gunned down anyway.
Anyone know if it is in-fact harder in the game to steal third?

[Burgandy]

Of course it's harder to steal third because it's a significantly shorter throw for the catcher. I would be shocked if the success rates of stealing each base in OOTP are very different from real life.

I would definately like to see separate sliders for stealing each base, opposed to one "Stealing Bases" setting. (in both the team strategy and individual players' strategy). There are many things that could be done to the strategy sections that would make them more universal and useful. I'll hit up the suggestion forum for those.

[1998 Yankees]

Originally Posted by Burgandy

Of course it's harder to steal third because it's a significantly shorter throw for the catcher.

I was thinking that too, but that is partially offset by two other considerations. A runner at second is behind the pitcher and thus more likely to be out of his peripheral vision, thereby getting an advantage in being able to take off undetected just a bit sooner than a runner at first. Also, most batters are right-handed and potentially obstruct the vision and throw down to third by a catcher trying to nail the runner.

[Burgandy]

Originally Posted by 1998 Yankees

I was thinking that too, but that is partially offset by two other considerations. A runner at second is behind the pitcher and thus more likely to be out of his peripheral vision, thereby getting an advantage in being able to take off undetected just a bit sooner than a runner at first. Also, most batters are right-handed and potentially obstruct the vision and throw down to third by a catcher trying to nail the runner.

I agree, the key word you included was "partially". It still doesn't adequately make up for it. From a catcher's perspective, a right-handed batter is a very minimal influence. But a runner can definately get a better jump off of 2nd. IMO, a large majority of steals of third base are the pitcher's fault.. letting the runner get too good of a jump. Then again, that's from a catcher's perspective.

[Mattymo]

Originally Posted by Burgandy

Of course it's harder to steal third because it's a significantly shorter throw for the catcher. I would be shocked if the success rates of stealing each base in OOTP are very different from real life.

You're way off on that one...it's SOO much easier to steal third because it's much more difficult to hold a runner on second (the infielders don't get right on the bag like at first base), and you can get a much bigger lead, and in many cases, a walking lead. Especially if the pitcher doesn't change up his looks, its a gimme for the good base stealers.

[Elendil]

Originally Posted by Mattymo

You're way off on that one...it's SOO much easier to steal third because it's much more difficult to hold a runner on second (the infielders don't get right on the bag like at first base), and you can get a much bigger lead, and in many cases, a walking lead. Especially if the pitcher doesn't change up his looks, its a gimme for the good base stealers.

According to this site -
http://members.tripod.com/bb_catcher...olen_bases.htm
- the success rate of stealing third in the modern era is slightly less than the success rate of stealing second. When you consider that steal attempts are not random - players are less likely to attempt a steal of 3rd than of 2nd for a given expected probability of success - it seems that, all else equal, stealing 3rd is somewhat more difficult than stealing 2nd. However, stealing home is far more difficult than either.

[Mattymo]

Wow...then I guess I'm wrong.

I just know that many of the great basestealers have always said that it's easier to steal third than it is second.

[Burgandy]

This is one of those things Matty, that statistics are just not going to fully support my point. But my real life experience does. Statisticly, I could believe the rate of stealing 3rd may be higher because A) only the "better" basestealers do it.. B) people are more selective in doing it (because they're already in scoring position and making the 1st or 3rd out at 3B is a sin)... and C) a runner stealing second on a LHP cannot (or at least SHOULD not) take off until the pitcher commits towards home plate.

What you're factoring in is a LH pitcher's ability to hold runners... which is much better at 1B than it is at 2B. For RH pitcher's, it really doesn't matter which bag the runner is at... keeping them close is all a matter of technique instead of anatomy. If I'm stealing against Andy Pettite, I'd rather steal 3B than 2B, too, because I'm going to get a horrible jump on him from 1B. Give me a RHP, where I can take off as soon as his left foot raises, and the advantage is heavily in favor of stealing second easier than third.

Generally speaking, keeping all things equal..(the pitcher works just as hard as keeping the runner honest).. if you beat my throw by a hair at 2B, the same is less likely to happen at 3B. No one has ever debated that point with me on their way back to the dugout.