80 Stuff Rating, Zero Strikeouts

CBL-Commish · 06-06-2007, 11:24 AM

I have a pitcher in the Continental League named Brandon Lovett. Kind of a fictional version of Steve Dalkowski, or Brad Pennington, or maybe Mitch Williams as a starter. 80 stuff rating, but movement is 40-ish, control in the 30s (all on the 20-80 scale). He's playing in the majors and has a terrible year, 130 innings, 150 Ks, 140 walks, tons of homers given up.

So I trade him to the tiny, independent, Southern Maryland league. I'm playing along with the CBL, but then go check out the SoMd league to see how Lovett is doing. I find out that in his first 11 innings he's struck out no one. Zero. He still has the same ratings, is now playing in the equivalent of a rookie league, facing a lot of batters with 25 or 30 ratings across the board, but isn't striking anyone out at all. I look at his spring training numbers and he had almost no strikeouts in 30 or 40 innings. He's not hurt - he's 100% healthy.

This has to be a bug, right?

Tony M · 06-06-2007, 11:36 AM

Going on circumstantial evidence when I've messed around with pitchers and bumped their ratings up, some of the uber-pitchers led the league in Strikeouts, and some of them led the league in BBs. It was quite odd watching a match play out and a pitcher with ratings of 250 in stuff, movement and control, regularly walk 2 or 3 an innings!

CBL-Commish · 06-06-2007, 01:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by redsoxford

Going on circumstantial evidence when I've messed around with pitchers and bumped their ratings up, some of the uber-pitchers led the league in Strikeouts, and some of them led the league in BBs. It was quite odd watching a match play out and a pitcher with ratings of 250 in stuff, movement and control, regularly walk 2 or 3 an innings!

Ok, but did any of your uberpitchers strike out zero batters? That's what my guy is doing. I expect him to walk a lot - his history in higher level leagues is almost a walk an inning. But the minute he went to a low-level indy league his strikeouts have gone from 12 or 13 per nine to ZERO.

Tony M · 06-06-2007, 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CBL-Commish

Ok, but did any of your uberpitchers strike out zero batters? That's what my guy is doing. I expect him to walk a lot - his history in higher level leagues is almost a walk an inning. But the minute he went to a low-level indy league his strikeouts have gone from 12 or 13 per nine to ZERO.

Over the course of a full season, the number of strikeouts registered by the uberpitchers ranged from 8 to 514, so I didn't get a full season zero, but I did get 8 K, and this was on over 300IP.

The guys with low K's had monstrous BB - the 8 K guy had 359BB for the season, yet the 514 K guy walked just 12.

Perhaps I should check the pitch list for the 8 K guy. Maybe he had a tendency to throw a knuckler on a 3-0,3-1 and 3-2 count.

CBL-Commish · 06-06-2007, 03:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by redsoxford

Over the course of a full season, the number of strikeouts registered by the uberpitchers ranged from 8 to 514, so I didn't get a full season zero, but I did get 8 K, and this was on over 300IP.

The guys with low K's had monstrous BB - the 8 K guy had 359BB for the season, yet the 514 K guy walked just 12.

Perhaps I should check the pitch list for the 8 K guy. Maybe he had a tendency to throw a knuckler on a 3-0,3-1 and 3-2 count.

So you have seen what I'm seeing. Don't you think that's very wrong? A player with a stuff rating that nearly maxes out the scale should never, ever have 8 Ks in 300 innings no matter how bad his control. Steve Dalkowski had less control than a frat boy on Bourbon St., and he struck out 18 per nine in some minor league seasons.

In my case it's even more extreme. The pitcher in question is playing in a league where most of the ratings are in the 20s-40s, and this guy has 80 stuff, 40 movement, and 35 control, or thereabouts. His control is bad for a major leaguer, but probably average for the tiny indy league he's in. And he's striking out no one at all. Don't you think if Mitch Williams went to the Northern League in his prime he'd have a pretty crazy K rate?

Nutlaw · 06-06-2007, 07:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CBL-Commish

I have a pitcher in the Continental League named Brandon Lovett. Kind of a fictional version of Steve Dalkowski, or Brad Pennington, or maybe Mitch Williams as a starter. 80 stuff rating, but movement is 40-ish, control in the 30s (all on the 20-80 scale). He's playing in the majors and has a terrible year, 130 innings, 150 Ks, 140 walks, tons of homers given up.

So I trade him to the tiny, independent, Southern Maryland league. I'm playing along with the CBL, but then go check out the SoMd league to see how Lovett is doing. I find out that in his first 11 innings he's struck out no one. Zero. He still has the same ratings, is now playing in the equivalent of a rookie league, facing a lot of batters with 25 or 30 ratings across the board, but isn't striking anyone out at all. I look at his spring training numbers and he had almost no strikeouts in 30 or 40 innings. He's not hurt - he's 100% healthy.

This has to be a bug, right?

First off, which version of the game are you using?

Secondly, could you let the poor guy pitch a few more innings and report back to us? Anyone could have a bad couple of starts and not strike out anyone over only 11 innings. How does he do over 100 IP? Exactly how many Ks did he have over how many innings in ST?

CBL-Commish · 06-07-2007, 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nutlaw

First off, which version of the game are you using?

Secondly, could you let the poor guy pitch a few more innings and report back to us? Anyone could have a bad couple of starts and not strike out anyone over only 11 innings. How does he do over 100 IP? Exactly how many Ks did he have over how many innings in ST?

2007, latest patch.

I'll let him pitch some more and give you some better details and screen shots. But I find it highly unlikely that a guy who averaged 13 or more K/9 in the majors could go to a low-level indy league and pitch 40+ innings between spring training and the regular season and strike out almost no one. In 40 innings I'd expect at least 50 or 60 Ks. His actual results would have to be, like, 20 standard deviations from normal.

Nutlaw · 06-07-2007, 06:28 PM

Okay, thanks. Could you also enter the Player Editor and let us know what his Stuff rating is on the 1-250 scale?

CBL-Commish · 06-08-2007, 09:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nutlaw

Okay, thanks. Could you also enter the Player Editor and let us know what his Stuff rating is on the 1-250 scale?

I'll try to do that tonight.

Nutlaw · 06-09-2007, 10:46 AM

If he is set to 250, could you try editing him to 249 to see if that drastically increases his K output?

CBL-Commish · 06-09-2007, 11:30 AM

Here's a few screencaps.

His stuff is 249. In the spring he actually had 11 Ks in 39 innings (in the rookie-level indy league). In the majors he has 770 Ks in 540 innings.

Nutlaw · 06-09-2007, 11:40 AM

Alright. Can you try letting him pitch more innings in this league, then let us know how he does? After half a season or so, does he rank among the league leaders in strikeouts? Maybe this new league he joined is set to have fewer strikeouts?

CBL-Commish · 06-11-2007, 02:36 PM

Minor update. One more start, five innings, zero strikeouts. Now up to sixteen regular season innings without a whiff.

Nutlaw · 06-11-2007, 07:00 PM

How many do the league leaders have?

CBL-Commish · 06-11-2007, 09:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nutlaw

How many do the league leaders have?

Tops in the league is a guy with 14 in 19 innings. His raw stuff rating is 58, to go along with a 13 movement and a 73 control.

Overall the league is pretty high contact - 257 Ks in 483 innings so far. That's a contributing factor, but still not an explanation.

Nutlaw · 06-12-2007, 07:10 PM

Well, again, this is rather small sample size. Let us know once you've progressed farther in the season?

If it's going to take you a while to progress that far, maybe you could quickly set up a test league and create a guy with an identical Stuff rating to play in an equivalent league and sim out a full season to see if the problem occurs there?

CBL-Commish · 06-14-2007, 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nutlaw

Well, again, this is rather small sample size. Let us know once you've progressed farther in the season?

If it's going to take you a while to progress that far, maybe you could quickly set up a test league and create a guy with an identical Stuff rating to play in an equivalent league and sim out a full season to see if the problem occurs there?

Sure, absolutely. I run a universe that generally progresses about one day for each real life calendar day, so it'll be an ongoing thing for several months.

Nutlaw · 06-14-2007, 07:45 PM

So, was that "sure" in response to creating a quick test league (or making a copy of this league to sim quickly) to gather more data? Waiting a few months will probably put us past the point of being able to do anything useful to fix the problem.

CBL-Commish · 06-18-2007, 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nutlaw

So, was that "sure" in response to creating a quick test league (or making a copy of this league to sim quickly) to gather more data? Waiting a few months will probably put us past the point of being able to do anything useful to fix the problem.

Oh, yea... guess if I want a solution I'll have to speed up time a bit. I will copy my league and sim out the rest of the year to get things going.

In any case, I do have a bit more data from my regular season. Strange data, too. Lovett has three more starts. Two of them totaling 9.2 innings, zero Ks. But he had one start in the middle where he went 6.0 innings and struck out 10. So, going back to spring training he has a string of 11 starts - 10 totaling 49 innings with no strikeouts at all. Then one start of six innings with 10.

Again, I realize this is still small samples in need of more data. But in all of baseball history has there been a starter who had 11 starts, ten with zero Ks and one with 10? In real life Steve Trachsel is striking out about three batters per nine this year - wouldn't it be a little stunning if he came out tonight and K'd 12 or 15 Padres?

zekester91 · 06-18-2007, 04:42 PM

could this be that when viewed against the people he's facing that his numbers are maxing out and being "rounded" to near zero. So his 80,40,30ish in the Majors is being translated into like 0, 60,55 in the Southern Maryland league. I remember we had some problem like this in 6.5 where it was possible for a person to devlope up to a place where he could loop. Thought it was taken care of in 2007 but could it be that the translated ratings loop.

06-06-2007, 11:24 AM	#1
CBL-Commish All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Maryland Posts: 1,999	80 Stuff Rating, Zero Strikeouts I have a pitcher in the Continental League named Brandon Lovett. Kind of a fictional version of Steve Dalkowski, or Brad Pennington, or maybe Mitch Williams as a starter. 80 stuff rating, but movement is 40-ish, control in the 30s (all on the 20-80 scale). He's playing in the majors and has a terrible year, 130 innings, 150 Ks, 140 walks, tons of homers given up. So I trade him to the tiny, independent, Southern Maryland league. I'm playing along with the CBL, but then go check out the SoMd league to see how Lovett is doing. I find out that in his first 11 innings he's struck out no one. Zero. He still has the same ratings, is now playing in the equivalent of a rookie league, facing a lot of batters with 25 or 30 ratings across the board, but isn't striking anyone out at all. I look at his spring training numbers and he had almost no strikeouts in 30 or 40 innings. He's not hurt - he's 100% healthy. This has to be a bug, right? __________________ For the best in O's news: Orioles' Hangout.com

06-09-2007, 11:30 AM	#11
CBL-Commish All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Maryland Posts: 1,999	Here's a few screencaps. His stuff is 249. In the spring he actually had 11 Ks in 39 innings (in the rookie-level indy league). In the majors he has 770 Ks in 540 innings. Attached Images __________________ For the best in O's news: Orioles' Hangout.com Last edited by CBL-Commish; 06-09-2007 at 11:31 AM.

06-11-2007, 02:36 PM	#13
CBL-Commish All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Maryland Posts: 1,999	Minor update. One more start, five innings, zero strikeouts. Now up to sixteen regular season innings without a whiff. __________________ For the best in O's news: Orioles' Hangout.com

06-12-2007, 07:10 PM	#16
Nutlaw Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 9,538	Well, again, this is rather small sample size. Let us know once you've progressed farther in the season? If it's going to take you a while to progress that far, maybe you could quickly set up a test league and create a guy with an identical Stuff rating to play in an equivalent league and sim out a full season to see if the problem occurs there? Last edited by Nutlaw; 06-12-2007 at 07:11 PM.

06-06-2007, 11:36 AM	#2
Tony M Global Moderator Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Here Posts: 6,156	Going on circumstantial evidence when I've messed around with pitchers and bumped their ratings up, some of the uber-pitchers led the league in Strikeouts, and some of them led the league in BBs. It was quite odd watching a match play out and a pitcher with ratings of 250 in stuff, movement and control, regularly walk 2 or 3 an innings!

06-07-2007, 06:28 PM	#8
Nutlaw Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 9,538	Okay, thanks. Could you also enter the Player Editor and let us know what his Stuff rating is on the 1-250 scale?

06-09-2007, 10:46 AM	#10
Nutlaw Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 9,538	If he is set to 250, could you try editing him to 249 to see if that drastically increases his K output?

06-09-2007, 11:40 AM	#12
Nutlaw Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 9,538	Alright. Can you try letting him pitch more innings in this league, then let us know how he does? After half a season or so, does he rank among the league leaders in strikeouts? Maybe this new league he joined is set to have fewer strikeouts?

06-11-2007, 07:00 PM	#14
Nutlaw Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 9,538	How many do the league leaders have?

06-14-2007, 07:45 PM	#18
Nutlaw Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 9,538	So, was that "sure" in response to creating a quick test league (or making a copy of this league to sim quickly) to gather more data? Waiting a few months will probably put us past the point of being able to do anything useful to fix the problem.

06-18-2007, 04:42 PM	#20
zekester91 All Star Starter Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,122	could this be that when viewed against the people he's facing that his numbers are maxing out and being "rounded" to near zero. So his 80,40,30ish in the Majors is being translated into like 0, 60,55 in the Southern Maryland league. I remember we had some problem like this in 6.5 where it was possible for a person to devlope up to a place where he could loop. Thought it was taken care of in 2007 but could it be that the translated ratings loop.