2007 League Totals over time - Page 2

RonCo · 04-17-2007, 07:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DougWyatt

For as long as I've played OOTP, I've thought it was as I stated; and thought I had read numerous confirmations of that theory.

This is one reason that I just can't bring myself to trust manually created rosters, btw. They are almost certain to not be tuned to league totals. When I hear someone complaining about stats output in a league with mod-ed rosters, my brain just turns off because there is no way to be certain you can help assess the problem.

Solonor · 04-17-2007, 08:15 PM

I spent like 2 weeks bitching and moaning about the league totals in 2006 not matching the output and arguing that the ratings were relative to the totals before Markus set me straight.

atlbrave1 · 04-18-2007, 07:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Curtis

atlbrave, my recommendation is to set your league total MODIFIERS to .747 for triples, 1.224 for homers and 1.148 for strikeouts. Don't touch the others. Try another 25 year sim (or a few) and see how close that gets you.

Alright, I had some time and ran two 50-yr sims w/ the modifiers listed above. Here were the results I got.
Test #1
167139 AB 42427 H 8146 2B 834 3B 5167 HR 15255 BB 1843 HB 31566 SO
Test #2
167277 AB 42850 H 8422 2B 843 3B 5340 HR 15534 BB 1753 HB 30975 SO

League Totals per OOTP
167353 AB 44522 H 8919 2B 898 3B 5451 HR 16222 BB 1850 HB 31828 SO

I also ran one 50-yr sim w/out any changes to any modifiers (all 1.000):
Test #1
167800 AB 43711 H 8891 2B 1231 3B 4330 HR 15665 BB 1756 HB 26392 SO

So the modifiers do get the results closer to the league totals - and the default modifiers still produce low HR's, high triples and somehat low K's.

One very interesting isue with the tests. Of the top 5 seasons for HR's in each test, all but one of those seasons occurred in the first 5 years of the sim (e.g. in Test #1 of the "juiced" sim, the HR's for the 1st 5 years: 5971, 5819, 5792, 5572 and 5614. Not once in the remaining 45 years did the league HR total exceed 5500. If I could figure out how to add a chart on here I would).

My question is still somewhat the same from the beginning. If I want to create a league that will mimic today's baseball (2000-2006) do I have to change the league totals? If the answer is yes, and it appears that way, why does the game come setup to not replicate today's baseball?

Solonor · 04-18-2007, 10:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by atlbrave1

Test #1
167139 AB 42427 H 8146 2B 834 3B 5167 HR 15255 BB 1843 HB 31566 SO
Test #2
167277 AB 42850 H 8422 2B 843 3B 5340 HR 15534 BB 1753 HB 30975 SO

League Totals per OOTP
167353 AB 44522 H 8919 2B 898 3B 5451 HR 16222 BB 1850 HB 31828 SO

I also ran one 50-yr sim w/out any changes to any modifiers (all 1.000):
Test #1
167800 AB 43711 H 8891 2B 1231 3B 4330 HR 15665 BB 1756 HB 26392 SO

2006 MLB Totals:
167341 AB 45073 H 9135 2B 952 3B 5386 HR 15847 BB 31655 SO

Sounds pretty spot on to the default to me. A little low on the HR and high on the 3B, but were you using all the same ballparks with the same park factors?

atlbrave1 · 04-18-2007, 11:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Solonor

2006 MLB Totals:
167341 AB 45073 H 9135 2B 952 3B 5386 HR 15847 BB 31655 SO

Sounds pretty spot on to the default to me. A little low on the HR and high on the 3B, but were you using all the same ballparks with the same park factors?

Agreed, it is pretty close. However, why do I have to modify the league totals to make it similar to 2006?

Also, why do HR totals reduce to below "modified" levels as the league continues. In one test I did with the increased modifiers (HRs = 1.224), the Avg Hr's for:
Yrs 1-5: 5753.6
Yrs 6-10: 5400.4
Yrs 11-15: 5303.6
Yrs 16-20: 5279.2
Yrs 21-25: 5145.2
Yrs 26-30: 5097.8
Yrs 31-35: 4803.2
Yrs 36-40: 4672.6
Yrs 41-45: 5112.4
Yrs 46-50: 5105
I realize the HRs are trending up toward the end (and I am going to sim to see if the trend continues) but i guess I am looking for a little more stability. I don't need every season to have x number of HR's to be hit, but I would like to see a little more stability.

RonCo · 04-19-2007, 06:07 AM

Your numbers:
Average: 5166.9
Standard Deviation: 301.5

MLB: 1997-2006:
Average: 5261.2
Standard Deviation: 304.5

This looks like a really great match from a pure numbers standpoint. HR just a little low, but the variance looking good. If, however, I take out your first 5 seasons (wher we traditionally see a little settling out as the league talent tunes itself...esp if you're using moded rosters), we get:

Average: 5101.7
Standard Deviation: 233.7

The reality is that your numbers are probably too stable rather than too variable. I note, though, that I'm taking 5-year data and compraing to 1-year data. I did it that way because I'm assuming your League Totals never change, so th e modern day number are more appropriate to use as measuring standards than values from 50+ years ago.

Solonor · 04-19-2007, 06:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by atlbrave1

Agreed, it is pretty close. However, why do I have to modify the league totals to make it similar to 2006?

Also, why do HR totals reduce to below "modified" levels as the league continues. In one test I did with the increased modifiers (HRs = 1.224), the Avg Hr's for:
Yrs 1-5: 5753.6
Yrs 6-10: 5400.4
Yrs 11-15: 5303.6
Yrs 16-20: 5279.2
Yrs 21-25: 5145.2
Yrs 26-30: 5097.8
Yrs 31-35: 4803.2
Yrs 36-40: 4672.6
Yrs 41-45: 5112.4
Yrs 46-50: 5105
I realize the HRs are trending up toward the end (and I am going to sim to see if the trend continues) but i guess I am looking for a little more stability. I don't need every season to have x number of HR's to be hit, but I would like to see a little more stability.

It looks like it's trying to settle into a groove that is near the real 2006 MLB totals to me. Are you sure you're not having it recalc league totals every year?

Solonor · 04-19-2007, 06:14 AM

Heh. I'll leave the fancy calcumalatin' to RonCo.

RonCo · 04-19-2007, 06:15 AM

Among the reasons why I'm interested in the variability comment is that all of our beta testing--and there's been a lot--has shown that OOTP has a tendency to be a little too stable from season to season when compared to MLB numbers. Most of our work is based on individual players rather than league-wide totals, but it follows naturally that the two would have a correlation.

atlbrave1 · 04-19-2007, 08:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RonCo

Among the reasons why I'm interested in the variability comment is that all of our beta testing--and there's been a lot--has shown that OOTP has a tendency to be a little too stable from season to season when compared to MLB numbers. Most of our work is based on individual players rather than league-wide totals, but it follows naturally that the two would have a correlation.

RonCo -- My overall point is that the default settings do not compare to MLB, but instead I have to change the league settings to reproduce such numbers. I will look into the individual players, but I am pretty sure that on an individual basis the career HR's numbers will be high (I believe approximately 880 was the all time career HR leader after 50 years.)

Thanks for taking a look.

RonCo · 04-19-2007, 08:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by atlbrave1

RonCo -- My overall point is that the default settings do not compare to MLB, but instead I have to change the league settings to reproduce such numbers. I will look into the individual players, but I am pretty sure that on an individual basis the career HR's numbers will be high (I believe approximately 880 was the all time career HR leader after 50 years.)

Thanks for taking a look.

Yes. I understand your overall point. I was responding to your sub-element of wanting less variation.

It is true that the default settings will result in fewer HR than you would expect out of a 2006 season. That is, per Markus, by design. You can adjust this a little whichever way you want--either lowering League Totals (changing the environment) or increasing PCM (improving the player skills). Either one of these approaches will work.

atlbrave1 · 04-19-2007, 11:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RonCo

It is true that the default settings will result in fewer HR than you would expect out of a 2006 season. That is, per Markus, by design. You can adjust this a little whichever way you want--either lowering League Totals (changing the environment) or increasing PCM (improving the player skills). Either one of these approaches will work.

Is this only for the 2007 settings or for all season settings? Let's say, for example, I wanted to get stats similar to the 2004 season, should I set up a fictional league w/ the 2004 settings or should I set up a league w/ the default settings and tweak them until I get 2004 results?

atlbrave1 · 04-19-2007, 09:29 PM

Dola,

Here's a challenge. Create a league using whatever league totals you want and sim for as long as you want, and then find a consecutive 5-year period w/ more HR's hit during it then were hit during the first 5 years of the league.

I've simmed multiple sets of 25+ year sims and every one of them has HR's start off high then taper off after approximately 5 years never to return to the first years totals (or the 2nd, 3rd or 4th years totals either if I recall correctly).

I am a big fan of the game, but I getting quite frustrated by the numbers it is producing.

One other question: In League Setup next to Traditional OOTP Player Creation Modifiers - it says 1.000 equals Modern-Day performance - what is Modern-Day performance? If I want to create a league that creates the stats I would like to see, what is the baseline I am working from?

TheeeeeeeeeYankeesWin · 04-20-2007, 05:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RonCo

Here's output from my last test league on the matter

Code:

 Division 1
Team    W    L    PCT    GB    AVG    HR    R    AB    H    2B    3B    BB    K    OBP    SLG    OPS    SB
Miami    90    72    .556    -    .246    4    580    5574    1372    354    41    488    1021    .309    .327    .636    106
Chicago    82    80    .506    8.0    .232    8    542    5463    1269    352    38    524    994    .304    .315    .619    35
New Y    65    97    .401    25.0    .232    2    533    5441    1261    321    63    557    1083    .306    .315    .621    39
Nashv    63    99    .389    27.0    .234    6    501    5638    1322    322    28    545    1059    .308    .305    .612    30
Division 2
Team    W    L    PCT    GB    AVG    HR    R    AB    H    2B    3B    BB    K    OBP    SLG    OPS    SB
San B    115    47    .710    -    .253    7    686    5548    1405    305    55    507    1042    .318    .332    .650    346
Staten    87    75    .537    28.0    .249    7    621    5536    1376    353    48    541    1158    .319    .333    .652    105
Jackson    74    88    .457    41.0    .233    10    491    5469    1277    309    34    477    1114    .301    .308    .609    91
Milwau    72    90    .444    43.0    .238    2    518    5631    1342    330    45    448    1058    .299    .314    .613    131
Sub League 1 Totals
Team    W    L    PCT    GB    AVG    HR    R    AB    H    2B    3B    BB    K    OBP    SLG    OPS    SB
TOTALS                    .240    46    4472    44300    10624    2646    352    4087    8529    .308    .319    .627    883
Sub League 2 Batting
Division 1
Team    W    L    PCT    GB    AVG    HR    R    AB    H    2B    3B    BB    K    OBP    SLG    OPS    SB
Charl    95    67    .586    -    .250    3    557    5617    1404    292    41    476    1000    .310    .318    .628    169
Balti    91    71    .562    4.0    .242    5    546    5508    1335    324    36    491    1076    .308    .317    .625    47
Manh    91    71    .562    4.0    .235    9    544    5520    1298    310    37    508    1036    .306    .310    .616    119
Long    85    77    .525    10.0    .218    3    450    5533    1204    275    38    438    1305    .281    .283    .563    232
Division 2
Team    W    L    PCT    GB    AVG    HR    R    AB    H    2B    3B    BB    K    OBP    SLG    OPS    SB
San J    79    83    .488    -    .242    4    548    5467    1321    308    52    470    1035    .306    .319    .625    133
Colum    73    89    .451    6.0    .223    2    475    5431    1212    323    47    463    1120    .289    .301    .590    87
Fresno    71    91    .438    8.0    .242    6    540    5509    1331    368    39    561    1267    .315    .326    .640    102
Las Ve    63    99    .389    16.0    .220    2    422    5498    1207    336    28    482    1217    .285    .292    .577    9
Sub League 2 Totals
Team    W    L    PCT    GB    AVG    HR    R    AB    H    2B    3B    BB    K    OBP    SLG    OPS    SB
TOTALS                    .234    34    4082    44083    10312    2536    318    3889    9056    .300    .308    .608    898

That lunch bet is risky! The average is 5.0 with a Stdev of 2.65. 5% of teams will hit 10 or more home runs. If I could make this a 30+ team league I'd bet you a 1 lunch for each of 5,000 sims

.....I also except credit cards.

RonCo · 04-20-2007, 05:32 AM

Never let it be said that I demand a sure thing.

Mathematically, I suppose there's really a 2.5% chance that I would lose, since the normal distribution says some results could be negative...but who's splitting hairs?

TheeeeeeeeeYankeesWin · 04-20-2007, 05:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RonCo

Your numbers:
Average: 5166.9
Standard Deviation: 301.5

MLB: 1997-2006:
Average: 5261.2
Standard Deviation: 304.5

This looks like a really great match from a pure numbers standpoint. HR just a little low, but the variance looking good. If, however, I take out your first 5 seasons (wher we traditionally see a little settling out as the league talent tunes itself...esp if you're using moded rosters), we get:

Average: 5101.7
Standard Deviation: 233.7

The reality is that your numbers are probably too stable rather than too variable. I note, though, that I'm taking 5-year data and compraing to 1-year data. I did it that way because I'm assuming your League Totals never change, so th e modern day number are more appropriate to use as measuring standards than values from 50+ years ago.

I think you answered his question in that 1st paragraph. However, your comparing 5-yr averages to one-year totals for dispersion is problematic. The 5-yr will most certainly be 'smoothed out'

atlbrave1 · 04-20-2007, 09:31 PM

I was able to finish up 100 year sims w/ one sim using the default settings and one sim using the modified settings reflected previously (changed league totals to .747 for triples, 1.224 for homers and 1.148 for strikeouts).

Here are the averages:
OOTP Default: 167638 AB 22272 R 43414 H 8822 2B 1227 3B 4354 HR 15333 BB 26350 SO
OOTP Modded: 167415 AB 22040 R 42486 H 8122 2B 847 3B 5236 HR 15087 BB 30938 SO
2006 MLB Tot: 167341 AB 23599 R 45073 H 9135 2B 952 3B 5386 HR 15847 BB 31655 SO

OOTP Default: .259 AVG / .324 OBP / .404 SLG
OOTP Modded: .254 AVG / .320 OBP / .407 SLG
2006 MLB Tot: .269 AVG / .337 OBP / .432 SLG

My thoughts:
1) Increasing HR's decreases 2B's which in turn decreases AVG and SLG...the modifier for 2B's did not change, why did their output change?
2) The increase in HR's by 22% resulted in a decrease in runs. I realize this is mostly tied to the 2B's and 3B's being down, but still I'm surprised.
3) RonCo: You noted that it was a design decision to decrease HR's vs today's totals...was it also a design decision to decrease singles and doubles as well?
4) I've spent a ton of time simming to try and get totals to resemble 2006 totals, and I still haven't got them yet. OOTP has brought back the option to have ghost players, to use stars, the trading block. Here's my what I would like to bring back:

I would like the to have the default settings produce statistics similar to 2006.

You can make it an option, so that people can turn it off and get unrealistic results, I know people like to have options.

SandMan · 04-20-2007, 09:41 PM

Curious - did you set the game to run with 2006 finances and 2006 league totals instead of the default???? You can set the game up to run with specific year defaults.

Just curious because the game does not state that it replicates 2006 stats but rather a "Modern Day". I never was under the impression that modern day meant the previous year.....

atlbrave1 · 04-20-2007, 09:52 PM

SandMan-

I used the 2007 settings.
The League Totals for the 2007 settings that the game provides are actually the totals for 2004 MLB.
I have tried to use the prior year settings (I posted about it yesterday or Wednesday (it was called Historical Fictional Setings), but I believe it slid off the first page -- it was a sim using the 1972 settings, it made these sims look spot on. HR's were off by 50% as a starting point for the 1972 sim).

SandMan · 04-20-2007, 10:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by atlbrave1

SandMan-

I used the 2007 settings.
The League Totals for the 2007 settings that the game provides are actually the totals for 2004 MLB.
I have tried to use the prior year settings (I posted about it yesterday or Wednesday (it was called Historical Fictional Setings), but I believe it slid off the first page -- it was a sim using the 1972 settings, it made these sims look spot on. HR's were off by 50% as a starting point for the 1972 sim).

OK. Fair enough. Maybe an issue. I guess I really never looked at the league totals in comparison to a season. I just look at the output my players are producing. Pretty satisfied with how individuals perform. Never considered the league totals as being important.

If there is a problem would like to see it resolved but if the game were not to change I still like the results I see. Thanks for pointing out your observations and maybe it will be changed.

Regards

Sandman

04-17-2007, 08:15 PM	#22
Solonor Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Maine Posts: 4,467	I spent like 2 weeks bitching and moaning about the league totals in 2006 not matching the output and arguing that the ratings were relative to the totals before Markus set me straight. __________________ Solonor's Groovy Computer Baseball League - Making baseball a hobbit since 2003! "Beings will come, Frodo. The one constant through all the years has been baseball. Middle Earth has rolled by like an army of Mumakil. It has been erased like a slate, rebuilt and erased again. But baseball has marked the time. This field, this game: it's a part of our past, Frodo. It reminds of us of all that once was good and it could be again. Oh... beings will come Frodo. Beings will most definitely come." - Gladden Field of Dreams

04-19-2007, 06:14 AM	#28
Solonor Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Maine Posts: 4,467	Heh. I'll leave the fancy calcumalatin' to RonCo. __________________ Solonor's Groovy Computer Baseball League - Making baseball a hobbit since 2003! "Beings will come, Frodo. The one constant through all the years has been baseball. Middle Earth has rolled by like an army of Mumakil. It has been erased like a slate, rebuilt and erased again. But baseball has marked the time. This field, this game: it's a part of our past, Frodo. It reminds of us of all that once was good and it could be again. Oh... beings will come Frodo. Beings will most definitely come." - Gladden Field of Dreams

04-19-2007, 06:15 AM	#29
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 10,508	Among the reasons why I'm interested in the variability comment is that all of our beta testing--and there's been a lot--has shown that OOTP has a tendency to be a little too stable from season to season when compared to MLB numbers. Most of our work is based on individual players rather than league-wide totals, but it follows naturally that the two would have a correlation. Last edited by RonCo; 04-19-2007 at 06:25 AM.

04-19-2007, 06:07 AM	#26
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 10,508	Your numbers: Average: 5166.9 Standard Deviation: 301.5 MLB: 1997-2006: Average: 5261.2 Standard Deviation: 304.5 This looks like a really great match from a pure numbers standpoint. HR just a little low, but the variance looking good. If, however, I take out your first 5 seasons (wher we traditionally see a little settling out as the league talent tunes itself...esp if you're using moded rosters), we get: Average: 5101.7 Standard Deviation: 233.7 The reality is that your numbers are probably too stable rather than too variable. I note, though, that I'm taking 5-year data and compraing to 1-year data. I did it that way because I'm assuming your League Totals never change, so th e modern day number are more appropriate to use as measuring standards than values from 50+ years ago.

04-19-2007, 09:29 PM	#33
atlbrave1 Major Leagues Join Date: Apr 2002 Posts: 300	Dola, Here's a challenge. Create a league using whatever league totals you want and sim for as long as you want, and then find a consecutive 5-year period w/ more HR's hit during it then were hit during the first 5 years of the league. I've simmed multiple sets of 25+ year sims and every one of them has HR's start off high then taper off after approximately 5 years never to return to the first years totals (or the 2nd, 3rd or 4th years totals either if I recall correctly). I am a big fan of the game, but I getting quite frustrated by the numbers it is producing. One other question: In League Setup next to Traditional OOTP Player Creation Modifiers - it says 1.000 equals Modern-Day performance - what is Modern-Day performance? If I want to create a league that creates the stats I would like to see, what is the baseline I am working from?

04-20-2007, 05:32 AM	#35
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 10,508	Never let it be said that I demand a sure thing. Mathematically, I suppose there's really a 2.5% chance that I would lose, since the normal distribution says some results could be negative...but who's splitting hairs?

04-20-2007, 09:31 PM	#37
atlbrave1 Major Leagues Join Date: Apr 2002 Posts: 300	I was able to finish up 100 year sims w/ one sim using the default settings and one sim using the modified settings reflected previously (changed league totals to .747 for triples, 1.224 for homers and 1.148 for strikeouts). Here are the averages: OOTP Default: 167638 AB 22272 R 43414 H 8822 2B 1227 3B 4354 HR 15333 BB 26350 SO OOTP Modded: 167415 AB 22040 R 42486 H 8122 2B 847 3B 5236 HR 15087 BB 30938 SO 2006 MLB Tot: 167341 AB 23599 R 45073 H 9135 2B 952 3B 5386 HR 15847 BB 31655 SO OOTP Default: .259 AVG / .324 OBP / .404 SLG OOTP Modded: .254 AVG / .320 OBP / .407 SLG 2006 MLB Tot: .269 AVG / .337 OBP / .432 SLG My thoughts: 1) Increasing HR's decreases 2B's which in turn decreases AVG and SLG...the modifier for 2B's did not change, why did their output change? 2) The increase in HR's by 22% resulted in a decrease in runs. I realize this is mostly tied to the 2B's and 3B's being down, but still I'm surprised. 3) RonCo: You noted that it was a design decision to decrease HR's vs today's totals...was it also a design decision to decrease singles and doubles as well? 4) I've spent a ton of time simming to try and get totals to resemble 2006 totals, and I still haven't got them yet. OOTP has brought back the option to have ghost players, to use stars, the trading block. Here's my what I would like to bring back: I would like the to have the default settings produce statistics similar to 2006. You can make it an option, so that people can turn it off and get unrealistic results, I know people like to have options.

04-20-2007, 09:41 PM	#38
SandMan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 2,946	Curious - did you set the game to run with 2006 finances and 2006 league totals instead of the default???? You can set the game up to run with specific year defaults. Just curious because the game does not state that it replicates 2006 stats but rather a "Modern Day". I never was under the impression that modern day meant the previous year.....

04-20-2007, 09:52 PM	#39
atlbrave1 Major Leagues Join Date: Apr 2002 Posts: 300	SandMan- I used the 2007 settings. The League Totals for the 2007 settings that the game provides are actually the totals for 2004 MLB. I have tried to use the prior year settings (I posted about it yesterday or Wednesday (it was called Historical Fictional Setings), but I believe it slid off the first page -- it was a sim using the 1972 settings, it made these sims look spot on. HR's were off by 50% as a starting point for the 1972 sim).