Should a 3-0 count almost always = a Walk?

[old timer]

I noticed in my league that whenever someone had a count of 3-0, they almost always walked. Just to be sure, I created a fictional league using the wizard and changed nothing. The same thing happened in this league too.

For example, on one team there were 87 AB (up to the All-Star break) with the count of 3-0 for all the players combined and only 2 of those ABs didn't lead to a walk! The other teams had nearly identical results and the same thing was true for my customized historical league which went for an entire season.

On the average, I calculated that 94% of all 3-0 counts led to a walk. I suppose if you're not playing out the games in pitch by pitch mode, it probably wouldn't matter, but if you do, then it could be a little annoying.

So what I'm wondering is if this sounds about right? I don't know where to find real data on this so I couldn't check it that way. Maybe this is normal and it's not extreme like it seems to me?

This certainly doesn't seem like a high priority to me, but I was curious anyhow.

[phenom]

I've not noticed that problem. The other night I started a 1901- historical replay where I am actually managing the Tigers, in pitch-by-pitch mode, and I can't seem to buy a walk on a 3-0 count.

:shrug:

[f.montoya]

Actually, no. I don't have numbers in front of me but a 3-0count does not almost always equal a walk. In cases of hitters like Barry Bonds being at the plate, there is certainly a higher chance of a walk resulting but on average, a 3-0 count usually results in a 3-1 count first, and a 3-1 pitch, being on a hitters count, has a very good chance at being put in play.

That's all I have right now on this. Hopefully someone with a link to some actual statistics can show you a little more.

[old timer]

Originally Posted by phenom

I've not noticed that problem. The other night I started a 1901- historical replay where I am actually managing the Tigers, in pitch-by-pitch mode, and I can't seem to buy a walk on a 3-0 count.

:shrug:

I haven't played out but a few games. The stats that I mentioned were from simming a bunch of games. Maybe the results are different depending on whether or not they are played out? I suppose that wouldn't be so bad then. I was mainly concerned that the numbers I was seeing would happen when I started playing out games.

Originally Posted by f.montoya

Actually, no. I don't have numbers in front of me but a 3-0count does not almost always equal a walk. In cases of hitters like Barry Bonds being at the plate, there is certainly a higher chance of a walk resulting but on average, a 3-0 count usually results in a 3-1 count first, and a 3-1 pitch, being on a hitters count, has a very good chance at being put in play.

It's been so long since I watched a real baseball game (8+ years), I couldn't remember for sure, but I thought I remembered a lot of players taking the next pitch which oftentimes would be a strike.

[Orioles]

Originally Posted by old timer

On the average, I calculated that 94% of all 3-0 counts led to a walk. I suppose if you're not playing out the games in pitch by pitch mode, it probably wouldn't matter, but if you do, then it could be a little annoying.

The AI managers seem to intentionally walk players more then a real manager, in my opinion. This would cause a lot of 3-0 count walks. Although 94% seems awful high to me.

[thomamon]

Is this still a problem?

[f.montoya]

Originally Posted by thomamon

Is this still a problem?

Probably not. I'll move this thread.