is this realistic? (long) - Page 2

henry296 · 05-01-2002, 10:49 AM

This is a good example of how, IMHO, ratings should be retrospective. People have brought up some good examples. Going in reverse how about rating Brett Boone before last year. You would not have seen strong power ratings that would have lead you to believe he would hit that many HRs, same with Brady Anderson before 1996.

Todd

Hammer755 · 05-01-2002, 11:00 AM

<blockquote>quote:<hr />Originally posted by henry296:
This is a good example of how, IMHO, ratings should be retrospective. People have brought up some good examples. Going in reverse how about rating Brett Boone before last year. You would not have seen strong power ratings that would have lead you to believe he would hit that many HRs, same with Brady Anderson before 1996.

Todd<hr /></blockquote>I think your example of Brady Anderson makes the case against your suggestion. He had 1 season where he was a power hitter, none before and none since, so it would make no sense at all to force Brady's HR rating to change drastically following 1996, when IRL that season was a fluke. And the jury is still out on Boone (in my opinion). He has shown a little pop his entire career, but who knows if he will be able to continue his 0.300, 30+ HR, 120+ RBI per season pace in the future.

[ 05-01-2002, 05:04 PM: Message edited by: Hammer755 ]

Maple Leafs · 05-01-2002, 11:03 AM

<blockquote>quote:<hr />Originally posted by danielb:
Ahh yes! But wouldn't his ratings (if real players had them) have changed to match his inadequate pitching? My pitchers' ratings DID NOT. Let me re-phrase..Name one starting pitcher who went 17-3 3.18 and the next year went 3-15 6.47 over a full season and in the height of his career..EVER..My point is that the cases are so isolated that it would be safe to say that it just doesn't happen that drastically.<hr /></blockquote>I agree that's pretty strange. Sounds like there are natural ups and downs, and you just saw an extreme example.

That said... what about a guy who went 21-10 3.58, then followed up with 7-16 6.65?

Ladies and gentlemen, Jose Lima. (Although in that case, Enron was a factor)

Astros02 · 05-01-2002, 11:46 AM

Stop blaming ASTROS Field for dropoffs. There are very few "Cheap" homeruns at the field, except in rare instances (I remember a broken bat homerun). Sure the Astrodome was a pitcher's park, but I don't think Roy Oswalt's ERA would be in the 1's if he pitched at the Astrodome last year. (Well, he might have been that good, just an example.) Oswalt's ERA was BETTER at Astros field than on the road, so it's hard to blame a park.(Except Coor's field)

By the way, I hope your pitcher regains his old form.

BaseballMan · 05-01-2002, 01:17 PM

Actually i like the idea of scouts not being right all the time as long as it applies to the computer teams too.

If a scout is right all the time and you sign the player then what right do you have to fire the scout since he told you the truth and he was always right so it was your choice to sign the player.

and having a Steve Blass case once in 50 years to me is great.

i think it happens more than we think cause we just think of pitchers but what about Kevin Mitchell or Kevin Maas. Not exactly the same but
for whatever reason they certaintly didnt maintain that one season wonder.

I dont mind one season wonders but what i dont like is a one year wonder rookie out playing Cy Young simply cause his rookie season is better.

Yes i know i could play with fictious players but that just isnt my bag. I like to look through the
careers and see how did Clemens do or Koufax.

And anyways doesnt the same rule apply that most rookies with great stats do better than rookies with poor stats as far as just letting the computer control them. To me its the same as historical only different names.

General Mike · 05-01-2002, 03:55 PM

Maybe he just had a fluke bad year. Did his stats go back towards his career #s the next season? Things happen that can't be explained and when you try to explain them you just end up scratching your head even harder.

CMH · 05-02-2002, 04:30 AM

stop blaming astros field? not to sound mean but i think its safe to blame fields for pitching and batting performance. isnt that wat makes baseball so great??? every major league park is different: different angles, field lengths, etc. unlike other sports where all fields are exactly alike, in baseball you have to adjust to your field and build a team that fits your field. which is one reason why i wonder colorado went away from its plan of pickin up gap hitters (Todd Ziele???) seems like they were successful with guys that in other fields would play terribly but b/c of the large gaps in Colorado, could see singles turn into doubles (or doubles into triples) therefore more runs. colorado went away from that andpicked up pitching. why?

fields play a huge role. building colorado by picking up pitchers is a terrible mistake. concentrate on gap hitters just try to outscore the other team. i know that not wat baseball should be like, but thats the reality for the Rockies.

The same for the Astros. Wouldnt you build your team to have strong batters that are righthanded if you were the Astros? Or nice lefties that are gap hitters b/c of the large gaps toward rightfield in Enron? As a result, wouldnt you pick up lefthanded pitchers so as to neutralize the gap hits (since we should all know homeruns still occur less than hits) so obviously, if thats the strategy, the field plays a role somewhere.

As for a pitcher like Lima underperforming in Astros field compared to the Astrodome. I think its pretty obvious that the guy just had one good year. b/c he was just as terrible in Detroit (a pitchers park, unless you are facing gap hitters)

I dont think Astros Field is so much a hitters park. I think its half and half depending on which part of the field you hit it too. good pitchers like Oswalt will keep hitters from hitting it to the short fence in leftfield. so i dont blame ERA's on that field.

Hammer755 · 05-02-2002, 04:46 AM

<blockquote>quote:<hr />Originally posted by Astros02:
Stop blaming ASTROS Field for dropoffs. There are very few "Cheap" homeruns at the field, except in rare instances (I remember a broken bat homerun). Sure the Astrodome was a pitcher's park, but I don't think Roy Oswalt's ERA would be in the 1's if he pitched at the Astrodome last year. (Well, he might have been that good, just an example.) Oswalt's ERA was BETTER at Astros field than on the road, so it's hard to blame a park.(Except Coor's field)

By the way, I hope your pitcher regains his old form.<hr /></blockquote>Houston Astros Team ERA by Year:

<blockquote>code:<hr /><pre style="font-size:x-small; font-family: monospace;">Year Stadium ERA NL Rank

1997 Astrodome 3.67 3
1998 Astrodome 3.50 2
1999 Astrodome 3.84 3
2000 Enron Field 5.41 16
2001 Enron Field 4.37 10</pre><hr /></blockquote>

[ 05-02-2002, 10:49 AM: Message edited by: Hammer755 ]

Lee Kirk · 05-02-2002, 04:58 AM

<blockquote>quote:<hr /> Ahh yes! But wouldn't his ratings (if real players had them) have changed to match his inadequate pitching? My pitchers' ratings DID NOT. Let me re-phrase..Name one starting pitcher who went 17-3 3.18 and the next year went 3-15 6.47 over a full season and in the height of his career..EVER..My point is that the cases are so isolated that it would be safe to say that it just doesn't happen that drastically.<hr /></blockquote>Well, in this game, I had a 2nd year starter win the Cy Young, going 24-3 and the next season he flopped. My scouting report called him avgerage! after he was deemed a star!

danielb · 05-02-2002, 05:18 AM

Yes Lee..I saw your other post..It totally baffles me..I realize that it happens, but it shouldn't happen as drastically as it does in this game..I still love this game though..It's just good to see that someone else shares my opinion..

Khaos · 05-02-2002, 07:18 AM

Searching for logic in baseball.
Dangerous. Very dangerous.

Reality check. You aren't the first guy to get burned by overpaying a guy who suddenly hit the skids. You're upset that it happened and want an out so it won't happen again. Welcome to the wonderful world of professional sports. It would piss me off to, but it would also make me love the game all the much more because it happened and everything isn't neat and tidy and easy because you can look at number ratings that are always accurate. That's the biggest thing I hate about Strat or DM.

Jason Moyer · 05-02-2002, 08:22 AM

The list of pitchers who have had 1 or 2 dominating years and then either faded away quickly or had mediocre careers is ridiculously long. Just in recent memory:

Scott Erickson
Juan Guzman
David Wells
Bill Swift
Jim Abbott
Steve Avery
Jack McDowell
John Tudor
Mark Davis
Steve Bedrosian
Bobby Thigpen
John Rocker

Jason

PierreP · 05-02-2002, 12:00 PM

Hi Daniel (and to All of you as well). After reading your first two posts, I seemed to understand that your pitcher had an ERA around 3.50 for each of his 5 previous seasons, wich would be very good assuming that you're using modern era settings (average ERA around 5.00, I guess)... But would you please let us know:

-- Your pitcher's exact record for each season (only ERA and innings pitched)

-- His cumulative ERA so far (plus number of innings pitched to this day)

-- Your league's ERA Top 25 (in History, Select... Career Leading Board). Actually, not pitchers' names but only your leaders' ERA.

By the way... Are the modern era (1980+) settings those really in use in your league?

Thanks.

Pierre P. (but not Pierre Page)

Specs · 05-02-2002, 12:27 PM

<blockquote>quote:<hr />Originally posted by Jason Moyer:
Scott Erickson
Juan Guzman
David Wells
Bill Swift
Jim Abbott
John Tudor
Mark Davis
Steve Bedrosian
Bobby Thigpen
John Rocker<hr /></blockquote>I think you might be being a bit unfair here. Erickson had only one good year? He was the ace of a staff (16-7, ERA+ almost as good as 1991) as late as 1997, and is still effective today. Juan Guzman had 5 good seasons, and they were interspersed with his bad ones. David Wells still hasn't "lost it", he just pitched in pain for a year, and still managed an above average ERA. Bill Swift NEVER had the kind of consistency as a starter as the guy this guy speaks of. Give Jim Abbott a break, the guy had one arm. If you can even begin to say John Tudor lost it, I give you credit. The man went higher than 2.92 only twice after his 1.93 season. Mark Davis never had it, except one year. Steve Bedrosian "lost it" when he was 37 years old, I forgive him. Thigpen and Rocker are closers: whole different story (Wohlers, etc). Avery and McDowell are good examples, best might be Steve Blass or Ron Bryant.

TheRockCT · 05-02-2002, 01:09 PM

<blockquote>quote:<hr />Originally posted by danielb:
then shouldn't the ratings drop off to match? At the same time? It sort of makes it to where you can't trust ratings..<hr /></blockquote>I just wanted to pipe up here to say that his ratings "shouldn't" drop off if he's only gone through one bad season, even if it was that bad.

A couple of factors:

1) Baseball players are human.
2) Juan Gonzalez gets a nice contract, but had a fairly horrendous year in 2000 with the Tigers.
3) Mike Hampton (yes, yes I know he's playing in Colorado, but his road stats are awful too) went from 22-4 with a 2.90 ERA in '99 to a 14-13, 5.41 ERA in '01.
4) Brady Anderson from 50 HR's and 110 RBI's in '96 to a paltry 18 HR's and 73 RBI's.
5) David Cone from 12-9, 3.45 ERA to a 4-14, 6.91 ERA for the Yankees.
6) Rod Beck, 51 saves and a 3.04 ERA to a miserable 10 saves and 5.93 ERA. from '98-'99.
7) Tim Salmon, 34 HR's and a .290 avg. down to a .227 with 17 HR's last year.
8) Tom Seaver, finishes 1981 with a 14-2 record and 2.54 ERA. How does 1982 go? 5-13 with a 5.50 ERA. And you can't say it was age, because he went on to post 15-11 and 16-11 records a couple of years later, both with ERA's under 4.

Other guys like Vinny Castilla, Ken Caminiti, Doug Drabek, Jeff Burroughs, Ron Gant, Bernard Gilkey, Ben Grieve, Jeff Brantley, Marty Cordova, Bobby Thigpen, Ron Kittle have all disappointed in some way or another. So yes, I think this is realistic.

If his ratings are good, then chalk it up to a bad year and see if he can rebound. If he's like some guys on this list, he won't, and you'll find him rotting at the bottom of the free agent list in a few years. If he turns out like Seaver did, or like Juan Gonzalez, then he still has quality pitching left in him.

CBL-Commish · 05-03-2002, 05:57 AM

<blockquote>quote:<hr />Originally posted by Astros02:
Stop blaming ASTROS Field for dropoffs. There are very few "Cheap" homeruns at the field, except in rare instances (I remember a broken bat homerun). Sure the Astrodome was a pitcher's park, but I don't think Roy Oswalt's ERA would be in the 1's if he pitched at the Astrodome last year. (Well, he might have been that good, just an example.) Oswalt's ERA was BETTER at Astros field than on the road, so it's hard to blame a park.(Except Coor's field)

By the way, I hope your pitcher regains his old form.<hr /></blockquote>Off hand I can't find the exact numbers. But say, for argument's sake, that Astros' Field increases offense by 5%. Let's also assume that the Astrodome decreased offense by 5%. I beleive these are both very conservative estimates. The real numbers are more like 10% each.

That means a team who's park-neutral runs/game is 4.5 would score 4.73 runs/game in Astros', and 4.28 runs/game in the Astrodome. That's a difference of 75 runs a season. A pitcher with a 3.50 ERA in the Astrodome would have a 3.87 in Astros' Field, with my conservative estimates, but in reality probably more like a 4.25.

Badbeat · 05-03-2002, 12:10 PM

Name one? Jose Lima... LIMA TIME!?

1998 Hou 33 33 3 1 233.1 229 100 96 34 32 169 16 8 0 0 0 3.70
1999 Hou 35 35 3 0 246.1 256 108 98 30 44 187 21 10 0 0 0 3.58
2000 Hou 33 33 0 0 196.1 251 152 145 48 68 124 7 16 0 0 0 6.65
2001 Det 18 18 2 0 112.2 120 66 59 23 22 43 5 10 0 0 0 4.71
2001 Hou 14 9 0 0 53.0 77 48 43 12 16 41 1 2 0 0 0 7.30
2001 -- 32 27 2 0 165.2 197 114 102 35 38 84 6 12 0 0 0 5.54
2002 Det 4 4 0 0 13.1 20 18 18 4 8 5 1 2 0 0 0 12.15

<blockquote>quote:<hr />Originally posted by danielb:
Ahh yes! But wouldn't his ratings (if real players had them) have changed to match his inadequate pitching? My pitchers' ratings DID NOT. Let me re-phrase..Name one starting pitcher who went 17-3 3.18 and the next year went 3-15 6.47 over a full season and in the height of his career..EVER..My point is that the cases are so isolated that it would be safe to say that it just doesn't happen that drastically.<hr /></blockquote>

[ 05-03-2002, 06:10 PM: Message edited by: Badbeat ]

Carplos · 05-03-2002, 01:33 PM

<blockquote>quote:<hr />Originally posted by Astros02:
Stop blaming ASTROS Field for dropoffs. There are very few "Cheap" homeruns at the field, except in rare instances (I remember a broken bat homerun). Sure the Astrodome was a pitcher's park, but I don't think Roy Oswalt's ERA would be in the 1's if he pitched at the Astrodome last year. (Well, he might have been that good, just an example.) Oswalt's ERA was BETTER at Astros field than on the road, so it's hard to blame a park.(Except Coor's field)

By the way, I hope your pitcher regains his old form.<hr /></blockquote>Facts are facts, all Texas parks are gonna be hitters parks unless indoors, or dimensions like Coors, I'm not saying all the HRs are cheap, but the ball does carry well. Obviously some pitchers are gonna do better even if Astros Field, especially if they're ground ball pitchers, but I'm not sure about Oswalt's GB/FB ratio.

As for dropoffs, in an OOTP3 league, I got Mark Prior in FA after Seattle didn't resign him after his initial 5 years, signed him for 7 years, 13,000,000 per, he did great for me, but coming up to a contract year, my team was sucky, so I wanted to save some salary, so I traded him to Boston, I got 2 good prospects, plus a guy playing around in AAA for like 3 years, never making the majors. I put that guy in my rotation, he went 20-4 with a 2.79 ERA. Great I thought... then it came, he never lasted another full year in the majors. In 20 starts the next year he went 2-9 with a 6.70 ERA. The next year, he made 15 starts do to injuries.. 1-9, "only" a 4.70 ERA. The next year he made one September start when I wanted to rest a starter for the playoffs. The next year, didn't make it out of Triple A and finally, he came up the next year for my bullpen and I let him go to free agency. He made 15-20 starts a year for the next few years before fading away. I realize that isn't a "consistent for years then one bad year thing", but it's a story and I like to tell OOTP stories. His name was George Alcaraz.

Carplos · 05-03-2002, 01:35 PM

<blockquote>quote:<hr />Originally posted by Badbeat:
Name one? Jose Lima... LIMA TIME!?

1998 Hou 33 33 3 1 233.1 229 100 96 34 32 169 16 8 0 0 0 3.70
1999 Hou 35 35 3 0 246.1 256 108 98 30 44 187 21 10 0 0 0 3.58
2000 Hou 33 33 0 0 196.1 251 152 145 48 68 124 7 16 0 0 0 6.65
2001 Det 18 18 2 0 112.2 120 66 59 23 22 43 5 10 0 0 0 4.71
2001 Hou 14 9 0 0 53.0 77 48 43 12 16 41 1 2 0 0 0 7.30
2001 -- 32 27 2 0 165.2 197 114 102 35 38 84 6 12 0 0 0 5.54
2002 Det 4 4 0 0 13.1 20 18 18 4 8 5 1 2 0 0 0 12.15

<blockquote>quote:<hr />Originally posted by danielb:
Ahh yes! But wouldn't his ratings (if real players had them) have changed to match his inadequate pitching? My pitchers' ratings DID NOT. Let me re-phrase..Name one starting pitcher who went 17-3 3.18 and the next year went 3-15 6.47 over a full season and in the height of his career..EVER..My point is that the cases are so isolated that it would be safe to say that it just doesn't happen that drastically.<hr /></blockquote><hr /></blockquote>Lima was a fly ball pitcher moving from Astrodome to Enron Field.

Arbiter · 05-03-2002, 04:07 PM

<blockquote>quote:<hr />Originally posted by Carplos:
Facts are facts, all Texas parks are gonna be hitters parks unless indoors, or dimensions like Coors, I'm not saying all the HRs are cheap, but the ball does carry well. <hr /></blockquote>cf. the (in)famous West Texas-New Mexico league, or in fact just about every other Texas-based league in history...

05-01-2002, 11:00 AM	#22
Hammer755 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Houston, TX Posts: 2,348	</font><blockquote><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><hr /><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Originally posted by henry296: <strong>This is a good example of how, IMHO, ratings should be retrospective. People have brought up some good examples. Going in reverse how about rating Brett Boone before last year. You would not have seen strong power ratings that would have lead you to believe he would hit that many HRs, same with Brady Anderson before 1996. Todd</strong></font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">I think your example of Brady Anderson makes the case against your suggestion. He had 1 season where he was a power hitter, none before and none since, so it would make no sense at all to force Brady's HR rating to change drastically following 1996, when IRL that season was a fluke. And the jury is still out on Boone (in my opinion). He has shown a little pop his entire career, but who knows if he will be able to continue his 0.300, 30+ HR, 120+ RBI per season pace in the future. <small>[ 05-01-2002, 05:04 PM: Message edited by: Hammer755 ]</small>

05-01-2002, 11:03 AM	#23
Maple Leafs Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 234	</font><blockquote><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><hr /><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Originally posted by danielb: <strong>Ahh yes! But wouldn't his ratings (if real players had them) have changed to match his inadequate pitching? My pitchers' ratings DID NOT. Let me re-phrase..Name one starting pitcher who went 17-3 3.18 and the next year went 3-15 6.47 over a full season and in the height of his career..EVER..My point is that the cases are so isolated that it would be safe to say that it just doesn't happen that drastically.</strong></font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">I agree that's pretty strange. Sounds like there are natural ups and downs, and you just saw an extreme example. That said... what about a guy who went 21-10 3.58, then followed up with 7-16 6.65? Ladies and gentlemen, Jose Lima. (Although in that case, Enron was a factor)

05-01-2002, 03:55 PM	#26
General Mike Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Somerset, NJ Posts: 255	Maybe he just had a fluke bad year. Did his stats go back towards his career #s the next season? Things happen that can't be explained and when you try to explain them you just end up scratching your head even harder. __________________ ACL - Houston Astros SHIBA - Los Angeles Dodgers [url=http://baseball.slammedia.net]BL2[/url - New York Mets BTTF - Florida Marlins

05-02-2002, 04:46 AM	#28
Hammer755 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Houston, TX Posts: 2,348	</font><blockquote><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><hr /><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Originally posted by Astros02: <strong>Stop blaming ASTROS Field for dropoffs. There are very few "Cheap" homeruns at the field, except in rare instances (I remember a broken bat homerun). Sure the Astrodome was a pitcher's park, but I don't think Roy Oswalt's ERA would be in the 1's if he pitched at the Astrodome last year. (Well, he might have been that good, just an example.) Oswalt's ERA was BETTER at Astros field than on the road, so it's hard to blame a park.(Except Coor's field) By the way, I hope your pitcher regains his old form.</strong></font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Houston Astros Team ERA by Year: </font><blockquote><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">code:</font><hr /><pre style="font-size:x-small; font-family: monospace;">Year Stadium ERA NL Rank 1997 Astrodome 3.67 3 1998 Astrodome 3.50 2 1999 Astrodome 3.84 3 2000 Enron Field 5.41 16 2001 Enron Field 4.37 10</pre><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial"> <small>[ 05-02-2002, 10:49 AM: Message edited by: Hammer755 ]</small>

05-02-2002, 04:58 AM	#29
Lee Kirk Minors (Single A) Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Guantanamo Bay, Cuba Posts: 55	</font><blockquote><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><hr /><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial"> Ahh yes! But wouldn't his ratings (if real players had them) have changed to match his inadequate pitching? My pitchers' ratings DID NOT. Let me re-phrase..Name one starting pitcher who went 17-3 3.18 and the next year went 3-15 6.47 over a full season and in the height of his career..EVER..My point is that the cases are so isolated that it would be safe to say that it just doesn't happen that drastically.</font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Well, in this game, I had a 2nd year starter win the Cy Young, going 24-3 and the next season he flopped. My scouting report called him avgerage! after he was deemed a star! __________________ Lee Kirk President <a href="http://www.orcaracing.net" target="_blank">www.orcaracing.net</a>

05-01-2002, 10:49 AM	#21
henry296 All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Baltimore, MD Posts: 514	This is a good example of how, IMHO, ratings should be retrospective. People have brought up some good examples. Going in reverse how about rating Brett Boone before last year. You would not have seen strong power ratings that would have lead you to believe he would hit that many HRs, same with Brady Anderson before 1996. Todd

05-01-2002, 11:46 AM	#24
Astros02 All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Houston Posts: 506	Stop blaming ASTROS Field for dropoffs. There are very few "Cheap" homeruns at the field, except in rare instances (I remember a broken bat homerun). Sure the Astrodome was a pitcher's park, but I don't think Roy Oswalt's ERA would be in the 1's if he pitched at the Astrodome last year. (Well, he might have been that good, just an example.) Oswalt's ERA was BETTER at Astros field than on the road, so it's hard to blame a park.(Except Coor's field) By the way, I hope your pitcher regains his old form.

05-01-2002, 01:17 PM	#25
BaseballMan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2002 Posts: 6,659	Actually i like the idea of scouts not being right all the time as long as it applies to the computer teams too. If a scout is right all the time and you sign the player then what right do you have to fire the scout since he told you the truth and he was always right so it was your choice to sign the player. and having a Steve Blass case once in 50 years to me is great. i think it happens more than we think cause we just think of pitchers but what about Kevin Mitchell or Kevin Maas. Not exactly the same but for whatever reason they certaintly didnt maintain that one season wonder. I dont mind one season wonders but what i dont like is a one year wonder rookie out playing Cy Young simply cause his rookie season is better. Yes i know i could play with fictious players but that just isnt my bag. I like to look through the careers and see how did Clemens do or Koufax. And anyways doesnt the same rule apply that most rookies with great stats do better than rookies with poor stats as far as just letting the computer control them. To me its the same as historical only different names.

05-02-2002, 04:30 AM	#27
CMH Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Posts: 5,057	stop blaming astros field? not to sound mean but i think its safe to blame fields for pitching and batting performance. isnt that wat makes baseball so great??? every major league park is different: different angles, field lengths, etc. unlike other sports where all fields are exactly alike, in baseball you have to adjust to your field and build a team that fits your field. which is one reason why i wonder colorado went away from its plan of pickin up gap hitters (Todd Ziele???) seems like they were successful with guys that in other fields would play terribly but b/c of the large gaps in Colorado, could see singles turn into doubles (or doubles into triples) therefore more runs. colorado went away from that andpicked up pitching. why? fields play a huge role. building colorado by picking up pitchers is a terrible mistake. concentrate on gap hitters just try to outscore the other team. i know that not wat baseball should be like, but thats the reality for the Rockies. The same for the Astros. Wouldnt you build your team to have strong batters that are righthanded if you were the Astros? Or nice lefties that are gap hitters b/c of the large gaps toward rightfield in Enron? As a result, wouldnt you pick up lefthanded pitchers so as to neutralize the gap hits (since we should all know homeruns still occur less than hits) so obviously, if thats the strategy, the field plays a role somewhere. As for a pitcher like Lima underperforming in Astros field compared to the Astrodome. I think its pretty obvious that the guy just had one good year. b/c he was just as terrible in Detroit (a pitchers park, unless you are facing gap hitters) I dont think Astros Field is so much a hitters park. I think its half and half depending on which part of the field you hit it too. good pitchers like Oswalt will keep hitters from hitting it to the short fence in leftfield. so i dont blame ERA's on that field.

05-02-2002, 05:18 AM	#30
danielb Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Georgia Posts: 207	Yes Lee..I saw your other post..It totally baffles me..I realize that it happens, but it shouldn't happen as drastically as it does in this game..I still love this game though..It's just good to see that someone else shares my opinion..

05-02-2002, 07:18 AM	#31
Khaos Major Leagues Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Canfield, OH Posts: 473	Searching for logic in baseball. Dangerous. Very dangerous. Reality check. You aren't the first guy to get burned by overpaying a guy who suddenly hit the skids. You're upset that it happened and want an out so it won't happen again. Welcome to the wonderful world of professional sports. It would piss me off to, but it would also make me love the game all the much more because it happened and everything isn't neat and tidy and easy because you can look at number ratings that are always accurate. That's the biggest thing I hate about Strat or DM. __________________ squish

05-02-2002, 08:22 AM	#32
Jason Moyer Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Pittsburgh Posts: 5,111	The list of pitchers who have had 1 or 2 dominating years and then either faded away quickly or had mediocre careers is ridiculously long. Just in recent memory: Scott Erickson Juan Guzman David Wells Bill Swift Jim Abbott Steve Avery Jack McDowell John Tudor Mark Davis Steve Bedrosian Bobby Thigpen John Rocker Jason __________________ "I pretty much popped everything cold turkey. We were doing steroids they wouldn't give to horses." -- Tom House "I was very fortunate to have a pitching coach by the name of Tom House...Tom, I really miss those days that we spent in the weight room and out on the field working together." -- Nolan Ryan's HoF Induction Speech

05-02-2002, 12:00 PM	#33
PierreP Bat Boy Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Montreal area Posts: 1	Hi Daniel (and to All of you as well). After reading your first two posts, I seemed to understand that your pitcher had an ERA around 3.50 for each of his 5 previous seasons, wich would be very good assuming that you're using modern era settings (average ERA around 5.00, I guess)... But would you please let us know: -- Your pitcher's exact record for each season (only ERA and innings pitched) -- His cumulative ERA so far (plus number of innings pitched to this day) -- Your league's ERA Top 25 (in History, Select... Career Leading Board). Actually, not pitchers' names but only your leaders' ERA. By the way... Are the modern era (1980+) settings those really in use in your league? Thanks. Pierre P. (but not Pierre Page)

05-02-2002, 01:09 PM	#35
TheRockCT All Star Starter Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: TN Posts: 1,083	</font><blockquote><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><hr /><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Originally posted by danielb: <strong>then shouldn't the ratings drop off to match? At the same time? It sort of makes it to where you can't trust ratings..</strong></font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">I just wanted to pipe up here to say that his ratings "shouldn't" drop off if he's only gone through one bad season, even if it was that bad. A couple of factors: 1) Baseball players are human. 2) Juan Gonzalez gets a nice contract, but had a fairly horrendous year in 2000 with the Tigers. 3) Mike Hampton (yes, yes I know he's playing in Colorado, but his road stats are awful too) went from 22-4 with a 2.90 ERA in '99 to a 14-13, 5.41 ERA in '01. 4) Brady Anderson from 50 HR's and 110 RBI's in '96 to a paltry 18 HR's and 73 RBI's. 5) David Cone from 12-9, 3.45 ERA to a 4-14, 6.91 ERA for the Yankees. 6) Rod Beck, 51 saves and a 3.04 ERA to a miserable 10 saves and 5.93 ERA. from '98-'99. 7) Tim Salmon, 34 HR's and a .290 avg. down to a .227 with 17 HR's last year. 8) Tom Seaver, finishes 1981 with a 14-2 record and 2.54 ERA. How does 1982 go? 5-13 with a 5.50 ERA. And you can't say it was age, because he went on to post 15-11 and 16-11 records a couple of years later, both with ERA's under 4. Other guys like Vinny Castilla, Ken Caminiti, Doug Drabek, Jeff Burroughs, Ron Gant, Bernard Gilkey, Ben Grieve, Jeff Brantley, Marty Cordova, Bobby Thigpen, Ron Kittle have all disappointed in some way or another. So yes, I think this is realistic. If his ratings are good, then chalk it up to a bad year and see if he can rebound. If he's like some guys on this list, he won't, and you'll find him rotting at the bottom of the free agent list in a few years. If he turns out like Seaver did, or like Juan Gonzalez, then he still has quality pitching left in him. __________________ GM, Vermont Emperor Penguins - POTD POTD Champions: 2011, 2012, 2013 GM, Monterrey Aztecs* - NABA *NABA Champions: 2013

05-03-2002, 05:57 AM	#36
CBL-Commish All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Maryland Posts: 1,999	</font><blockquote><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><hr /><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Originally posted by Astros02: <strong>Stop blaming ASTROS Field for dropoffs. There are very few "Cheap" homeruns at the field, except in rare instances (I remember a broken bat homerun). Sure the Astrodome was a pitcher's park, but I don't think Roy Oswalt's ERA would be in the 1's if he pitched at the Astrodome last year. (Well, he might have been that good, just an example.) Oswalt's ERA was BETTER at Astros field than on the road, so it's hard to blame a park.(Except Coor's field) By the way, I hope your pitcher regains his old form.</strong></font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Off hand I can't find the exact numbers. But say, for argument's sake, that Astros' Field increases offense by 5%. Let's also assume that the Astrodome decreased offense by 5%. I beleive these are both very conservative estimates. The real numbers are more like 10% each. That means a team who's park-neutral runs/game is 4.5 would score 4.73 runs/game in Astros', and 4.28 runs/game in the Astrodome. That's a difference of 75 runs a season. A pitcher with a 3.50 ERA in the Astrodome would have a 3.87 in Astros' Field, with my conservative estimates, but in reality probably more like a 4.25. __________________ For the best in O's news: Orioles' Hangout.com

05-03-2002, 12:10 PM	#37
Badbeat Bat Boy Join Date: May 2002 Location: Tampa, FL Posts: 1	Name one? Jose Lima... LIMA TIME!? 1998 Hou 33 33 3 1 233.1 229 100 96 34 32 169 16 8 0 0 0 3.70 1999 Hou 35 35 3 0 246.1 256 108 98 30 44 187 21 10 0 0 0 3.58 2000 Hou 33 33 0 0 196.1 251 152 145 48 68 124 7 16 0 0 0 6.65 2001 Det 18 18 2 0 112.2 120 66 59 23 22 43 5 10 0 0 0 4.71 2001 Hou 14 9 0 0 53.0 77 48 43 12 16 41 1 2 0 0 0 7.30 2001 -- 32 27 2 0 165.2 197 114 102 35 38 84 6 12 0 0 0 5.54 2002 Det 4 4 0 0 13.1 20 18 18 4 8 5 1 2 0 0 0 12.15 </font><blockquote><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><hr /><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Originally posted by danielb: <strong>Ahh yes! But wouldn't his ratings (if real players had them) have changed to match his inadequate pitching? My pitchers' ratings DID NOT. Let me re-phrase..Name one starting pitcher who went 17-3 3.18 and the next year went 3-15 6.47 over a full season and in the height of his career..EVER..My point is that the cases are so isolated that it would be safe to say that it just doesn't happen that drastically.</strong></font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial"> <small>[ 05-03-2002, 06:10 PM: Message edited by: Badbeat ]</small>

05-03-2002, 01:33 PM	#38
Carplos Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Idaho Posts: 2,903 Infractions: 1/0 (0)	</font><blockquote><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><hr /><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Originally posted by Astros02: <strong>Stop blaming ASTROS Field for dropoffs. There are very few "Cheap" homeruns at the field, except in rare instances (I remember a broken bat homerun). Sure the Astrodome was a pitcher's park, but I don't think Roy Oswalt's ERA would be in the 1's if he pitched at the Astrodome last year. (Well, he might have been that good, just an example.) Oswalt's ERA was BETTER at Astros field than on the road, so it's hard to blame a park.(Except Coor's field) By the way, I hope your pitcher regains his old form.</strong></font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Facts are facts, all Texas parks are gonna be hitters parks unless indoors, or dimensions like Coors, I'm not saying all the HRs are cheap, but the ball does carry well. Obviously some pitchers are gonna do better even if Astros Field, especially if they're ground ball pitchers, but I'm not sure about Oswalt's GB/FB ratio. As for dropoffs, in an OOTP3 league, I got Mark Prior in FA after Seattle didn't resign him after his initial 5 years, signed him for 7 years, 13,000,000 per, he did great for me, but coming up to a contract year, my team was sucky, so I wanted to save some salary, so I traded him to Boston, I got 2 good prospects, plus a guy playing around in AAA for like 3 years, never making the majors. I put that guy in my rotation, he went 20-4 with a 2.79 ERA. Great I thought... then it came, he never lasted another full year in the majors. In 20 starts the next year he went 2-9 with a 6.70 ERA. The next year, he made 15 starts do to injuries.. 1-9, "only" a 4.70 ERA. The next year he made one September start when I wanted to rest a starter for the playoffs. The next year, didn't make it out of Triple A and finally, he came up the next year for my bullpen and I let him go to free agency. He made 15-20 starts a year for the next few years before fading away. I realize that isn't a "consistent for years then one bad year thing", but it's a story and I like to tell OOTP stories. His name was George Alcaraz.

05-03-2002, 01:35 PM	#39
Carplos Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Idaho Posts: 2,903 Infractions: 1/0 (0)	</font><blockquote><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><hr /><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Originally posted by Badbeat: <strong>Name one? Jose Lima... LIMA TIME!? 1998 Hou 33 33 3 1 233.1 229 100 96 34 32 169 16 8 0 0 0 3.70 1999 Hou 35 35 3 0 246.1 256 108 98 30 44 187 21 10 0 0 0 3.58 2000 Hou 33 33 0 0 196.1 251 152 145 48 68 124 7 16 0 0 0 6.65 2001 Det 18 18 2 0 112.2 120 66 59 23 22 43 5 10 0 0 0 4.71 2001 Hou 14 9 0 0 53.0 77 48 43 12 16 41 1 2 0 0 0 7.30 2001 -- 32 27 2 0 165.2 197 114 102 35 38 84 6 12 0 0 0 5.54 2002 Det 4 4 0 0 13.1 20 18 18 4 8 5 1 2 0 0 0 12.15 </font><blockquote><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><hr /><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Originally posted by danielb: <strong>Ahh yes! But wouldn't his ratings (if real players had them) have changed to match his inadequate pitching? My pitchers' ratings DID NOT. Let me re-phrase..Name one starting pitcher who went 17-3 3.18 and the next year went 3-15 6.47 over a full season and in the height of his career..EVER..My point is that the cases are so isolated that it would be safe to say that it just doesn't happen that drastically.</strong></font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial"></strong></font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Lima was a fly ball pitcher moving from Astrodome to Enron Field.

05-03-2002, 04:07 PM	#40
Arbiter Minors (Double A) Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: College Station TX Posts: 127	</font><blockquote><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><hr /><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Originally posted by Carplos: <strong>Facts are facts, all Texas parks are gonna be hitters parks unless indoors, or dimensions like Coors, I'm not saying all the HRs are cheap, but the ball does carry well. </strong></font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">cf. the (in)famous West Texas-New Mexico league, or in fact just about every other Texas-based league in history...