"There is no such thing as a clutch hitter"

[gamadict]

From what I remember, he said that some players did happen to perform well in 'clutch' situations...Not that they had any special ability to do so. I also remember him referring to clutchness as a 'bull**** dump'...

[sporr]

[quote]Originally posted by gamadict:
<strong>From what I remember, he said that some players did happen to perform well in 'clutch' situations...Not that they had any special ability to do so. I also remember him referring to clutchness as a 'bull**** dump'...</strong><hr></blockquote>

Yes, and James even used this in his Win Share calculations to bump players up and down. I found it odd that he would include clutch in his own formula when he was so outspoken against it.

[Draft Dodger]

death, taxes, and a clutch hitting thread.

[Malleus Dei]

DennisS: "Oh, and lay off the aggressive attacks on others."

As the number one victim of aggressive personal attacks on this site I find that comment hysterical. I address the issues - in this case massive ignorance and the willingness to believe in a cherished myth - and never go after anyone personally until they personally attack me, so MYOB.

Back to the subject: clutch hitting is a myth, a mirage, a fantasy.

ESPN's Rob Neyer (Bill James' long-time research assistant) on the subject:

"You know what else? I think that this obsession sports fans have with "clutch hitters" and "money players" is yet another manifestation of what I will call our "need for explanation." We humans simply aren't content with thoughtless gods like Dame Fortune and The Great Unknowable. They scare us. Give us the willies, the creepy-crawlies.

So we invent mythical creatures like "the clutch hitter," in hopes that maybe the dreaded Imps of Ramdomland will leave us alone, at least while we're watching the ballgame in the presumed safety of our own homes."

Don't believe the myths; believe what the facts and the numbers show. Charlie Lau once said that he never knew anything about baseball until he stop believing the myths that had been carefully handed down and started paying attention to see what the real facts were.

[Malleus Dei]

[quote]Originally posted by thatsnotpr:
<strong>Anyone who has played at a reasonably high level in any sport knows that there are clutch players, and players that fold due to the high pressure of those situations.</strong><hr></blockquote>

I have done that, and I know that there is no such thing as a significant clutch hitter. There are lucky hitters and unlucky hitters and well-informed hitters and badly-informed hitters - but what you are dealing with is randomness/probability and good scouting, not any mythical "clutch ability."

A scouting example: people talk about Gibson's home run in the 1988 World Series as proof of the existence of clutch ability, when the fact of the matter is that thanks to good scouting he knew exactly what pitch was coming next and sat on it.

[fluharty]

I have heard various people define 'clutch' in two ways:

a)
A player that maintains a cool head (i.e. doesn't choke) under pressure. This is easy enough to understand. The guy doesn't get rattled, doesn't let his emotions get the better of him, etc...

b)
A player that acually performs better under pressure than otherwise. This is pretty straightforward also. Added pressure can causes heightened emotions which in turn causes added adreneline which, for clutch players, translate to a combination of better focus, better power, more agressiveness, just-doing-and-not-thinking-too-much, and so forth.

Mike Benjamin, a career 235 hitter, has gained the reputation of being a clutch hitter. Having watched him play, he does seem to have a knack for getting a hit at just the right time. I would say he has elements of both of the above types of clutch hitters. Lots of MLB experience can get you into the fist category. You've been in 100s these same situations and, as such, as not nervious in any way. But many ball players, as far as I know, are guily of overthinking, when they should just relax and let their well-honed and well-practiced skills take over (i.e. think the situation through before the at-bat, not during it). Added adreneline can cause the player to stop thinking about the sitation, to focus better, to just act, which can translate to better performance. Also, adreneline adds the tiniest bit of extra speed/strength, which can also result in better performance. Guys that do this consistantly get tagged with the 'clutch hitter' label. I believe this same logic can be applied to pitchers.

[ 04-05-2002: Message edited by: fluharty ]</p>

[HMKRich]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Joe Stallings:
Someone should make this into a "paper" that we could publish on the new research and essays section of the web site.

When will this appear? Everything I've seen is VERY deep, and has no real relevence to OOTP. This would be a great tool, especialy for us newbies.

[Tin]

My guess is that those people who claim there is no clutch ability are people that have never played any serious sport. those who have played serious sports know there is such a thing.

[MannyTrillo]

But, the guys who aren't "clutch" are the guys who get nervous when they play in front of major league scouts, or 10,000 people, or whatever. It's obvious in any walk of life that some people perform well when the pressure is on... and I would say that *all* major league baseball players are those kind of people. If being under pressure affected their performances adversely, they would have never made it to the big leagues... after all, if having to perform in front of 30,000 people plus more on TV, with journalists writing down your every move isn't a "clutch" situation, then what is?

I really wish this thread hadn't been brought back up, but seeing as it was let me just add this ...

By saying there is no such thing as clutch hitting (I'm mainly addressing Malleus here), you are saying that a hitter is completely oblivious to what is going on around him. This is clearly not true - the hitter is aware of when it is bases loaded, 2 out, tie score, in a World Series game, for instance.

Different people will react to this in different ways - some get nervous and croak under pressure, others gain more motivation and do better. Thus, some hitters are clutch hitters and some are not. You can't judge this from one or two at-bats though, it is more of a general trend.

How anyone can say clutch hitting is a myth makes no sense to me ...

[Scott Vibert]

They aren't necessarily saying its a myth, but that the effects have proven to be statiscally insignificant in studies to date.... these aren't the same things.

Obviously the batter knows what's going on, but their performance in these situations tends to not leave a significant indication in the stats. When you bring something like this up in a simulation forum, it begs the question that if "clutch" effects have failed to show a statistically significant signature, why would they be included in the simulation engine... (I hear the opening of a large can of worms)

I think what you see is a lot of people who believe strongly in "clutch" ability, and can offer anectdotal evidence to support their belief, while those who try and find statiscal evidence to support the "clutch" abillity and aren't finding a statistically significant signature and when they mention there isn't a signature to "prove" the existence of "clutch" ability it becomes a huge debate about the existence of the "clutch" ability.

I'm not in favor of things like "clutch" ratings being included in simulations (barring evidence of a statistically significant signature), but I do remember from my playing days that there are certain people that you feel better having at the plate in a critical point of the game.

ScottVib - in another thread Malleus posted 3 times saying "clutch hitting is a myth".

That's where I got it from ...

[Henry]

Oh well... one of those topics that never goes away. I thought I'd repeat something I said months ago on the subject however...

I will agree I cannot (with the possible exception of less that a half dozen players in history) come up with "statistical" proof that clutch hitting exists - and as such, doubt that players in a simulation should have such a rating.

HOWEVER, in the case of OOTP we have both real and fictional players. Although I wish I could turn off the clutch hitting rating for real players, I really like the idea of having it for fictional players.

Since I'm not trying to mimic a real career, the clutch rating gives me another variable for a player that doesn't exist - kind of adds to a personality I don't really know, thus making him more real. Since the clutch rating (in that context) simply makes him a "bit better" than his raw stats would make him - it adds a level of personality I wouldn't have had otherwise.

Back to real players... I think there's more chance you can find a "choke factor" statistically that you can find a "clutch factor".

Henry

EDIT: Sorry I accidentally double-posted ...

[JML]

Imagine a guy, late twenties, in a business suit, with lame floppy hair and a twisted up face. His thumb is pointing downward...

THIS THREAD SUCKS.



(I just couldn't bring myself to attach it.)

Did I mention I like milkshakes?

[JAttractive]

You can still turn it off Exposfan but it requires you to inspect each player, turn on the editor and remove the ability manually.

I like the idea of keeping clutch hitting in the game because I am not a real-life simulation nut but at the same time I wish we had switches for turning things like this on/off. Maybe a realism/fun switch so that everyone can get what they want from their leagues without too much editting.

[Old Man]

Another topic that needs a group hug.

Originally posted by JAttractive
You can still turn it off Exposfan but it requires you to inspect each player, turn on the editor and remove the ability manually.

I like the idea of keeping clutch hitting in the game because I am not a real-life simulation nut but at the same time I wish we had switches for turning things like this on/off. Maybe a realism/fun switch so that everyone can get what they want from their leagues without too much editting.

I was saying clutch hitting should be there.

And I don't have OOTP4

[JAttractive]

Originally posted by Henry


HOWEVER, in the case of OOTP we have both real and fictional players. Although I wish I could turn off the clutch hitting rating for real players, I really like the idea of having it for fictional players.


Henry

Sorry Exposfan I thought you posted the above message but it was actually sandwiched between your two

I am sure Henry already knows you can do this and probably just meant he wished it was a single league switch as I suggested.