"There is no such thing as a clutch hitter"

[thatsnotpr]

Was it Neyer that said that?

If so, what a huge mistake. Anyone who has played at a reasonably high level in any sport knows that there are clutch players, and players that fold due to the high pressure of those situations.

Tell me Bonds doesn't choke!

[hellfrozeover]

We had a big long post about this thing once....
<a href="http://www.ootpbb.com/board/cgi-bin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic&f=1&t=000052&p=" target="_blank">The monster post....</a>

[eneubaue]

Originally posted by thatsnotpr:

[quote]Was it Neyer that said that?

If so, what a huge mistake. Anyone who has played at a reasonably high level in any sport knows that there are clutch players, and players that fold due to the high pressure of those situations.

Tell me Bonds doesn't choke!<hr></blockquote>

Read the link provided by hellfrozeover. It should give you some insight into "clutch ability".

While almost no-one disputes that there are/have been "clutch performances", "clutch ability" - a "certain something" that players have and use in clutch situations consistently has been shown not to exist (or to be more correct, if it does exist, it has been extremely difficult to detect due to various factors).

Oh, and Bonds isn't a choker

[Peter Bergstrom]

[quote] Read the link provided by hellfrozeover. It should give you some insight into "clutch ability". <hr></blockquote>

Controversial subject! There have been some high level discussions on this board. I've noticed that, in the sim, catchers seem to be disporportionately rated as GREAT in the clutch. Go figure. The effects, judging by the the close/late hitting stats, have been mild but apparent. Personally, I think clutch hitting is probably a myth, but it adds flavor to the game.

I think it's odd that the clutch rating has been included but no algorythms for Home Field advantage which is an undeniable factor.

Then there 'consistency'. Another can of worms.....

[VEASE]

I think if 'clutch' means anything it should only apply to pitchers, and in particular closers. The only way a hitter can change a result in the ninth is if the Pitcher makes a mistake, Gibson hitting that legendary homer off Eckersleys Slider (when he was throwing a 100 mph Heater that Gibson would never have been able to turn on) that 'slid' right into his wheelhouse is one such example, or Pat Darcy throwing Carlton Fisk (a notorious lowball hitter)the low fastball that he hit the foul pole with to win game 6 of the 1975 WS. The 'Shot heard round the world' might never have happened if poor Ralph Branca hadn't tried to get two high, inside, fastballs in a row past Bobby Thomson (it's suicide to give a batter a pitch as a 'sighter'then throw the EXACT same pitch again).

If Pitchers do what they are supposed to do, get ahead in the count and make the Batter swing at pitches he doesn't want to, then there is no 'clutch' hitting, period.

[ March 25, 2002: Message edited by: VEASE ]</p>

[Joe Stallings]

Well, as Markus knows I for one do not believe in "clutch" ratings. So, I have the lone dissenting vote on the design team.

P.S. Barry Bonds? Look at his statistics with the Pirates in the postseason.

Joe

[Geiiga]

I stand firm in my belief that, if the playoffs were on the line, George Brett could have taken a step of the box, taken a one-armed slap at a ball that would have otherwise hit him, and gotten a home run or at least a double out of it.

There's a clutch hitter for you.

[JML]

[quote]Originally posted by hellfrozeover:
<strong>We had a big long post about this thing once....
<a href="http://www.ootpbb.com/board/cgi-bin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic&f=1&t=000052&p=" target="_blank">The monster post....</a></strong><hr></blockquote>

We have another long post about this thing...
<a href="http://www.ootpbb.com/board/ubb/ultimatebb.php?ubb=get_topic&f=11&t=001391" target="_blank">The other monster post</a>

[Khaos]

George Brett was one of the best hitters in the history of the game.

[Joe Stallings]

Well, Brett's career batting average was .305. He accumulated 144 at-bats in the post season (with last post season trip in 1985) and his average was like .337 for those 144 at bats. For his career, up to 1985, he was a .301 hitter.

So maybe you have a point

Someone should make this into a "paper" that we could publish on the new research and essays section of the web site.

Joe

[DennisS]

As any Cardinal fan of the 80's can tell you, Jack Clark was one of the greatest clutch hitters of all time.

I wish I had the reference, but I recall the close/late numbers he had were unbelievable...on the order of .600

Cheers

[Arbiter]

[quote]Originally posted by DennisS:
<strong>As any Cardinal fan of the 80's can tell you, Jack Clark was one of the greatest clutch hitters of all time.

I wish I had the reference, but I recall the close/late numbers he had were unbelievable...on the order of .600

Cheers</strong><hr></blockquote>

Retrosheet's website doesn't have close/late splits yet, but they do have some others for Clark, linked off
<a href="http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/Pclarj001.htm" target="_blank">http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/Pclarj001.htm</a>

Certainly, his performance in RISP situations is, if anything, less than his overall average.

Again, I apologize for interjecting data into this thread.

[Killebrew]

[quote]Originally posted by Arbiter:
<strong>Retrosheet's website doesn't have close/late splits yet, but they do have some others for Clark, linked off
<a href="http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/Pclarj001.htm" target="_blank">http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/Pclarj001.htm</a>Certainly, his performance in RISP situations is, if anything, less than his overall average.</strong><hr></blockquote>

It actually looks like Clark was hitting better with RISP in many, maybe most, of those seasons. Regardless of what the final totals for Jack Clark are (I'm sure someone will add them up), wouldn't it be considered clutch to even hit your average in RISP situations? I mean, wouldn't players that were lacking in clutch ability generally do worse in situations where the opposing pitcher and fielders are bearing down on them, like a RISP situation? The idea that clutch hitters actually improve in the clutch may be flawed logic, and perhaps that is an area where the few existing studies have not delved into closely.

David Grabiner's clutch hitting studies appear to be by far the most quoted on the net, but they were actually usenet posts, and not very lengthy ones at that (just a few minutes of reading). He has 3 posts in particular that are related to the subject, and I've read them all many times over the years. Be careful about the source, some sites have slightly modified versions of his original usenet posts, Grabiner's homepage (http://www-math.bgsu.edu/~grabine/baseball.html) is probably the wise place to go. If I were really into sticking it to the "pro-clutch hitter" crowd ( ) I think I'd leave Grabiner's posts out of it and concentrate on Bill James writing on the subject.

I have a few baseball analysis books that cover clutch ability, and a recent one ("Curve Ball" by Jim Albert and Jay Bennett) does not attempt to prove if it exists or not, it's chapter related to clutch performance concentrates on finding formula's for measuring clutch ability. Overall I still think I am somewhere in the middle on this issue, and I believe people make far too much of things that you could also attribute to luck or chance. Then again I'd rather have a "lucky" batter at the plate in the bottom of the 9th inning .

[quote]Originally posted by Arbiter:
<strong>Again, I apologize for interjecting data into this thread.</strong><hr></blockquote>
Heh, now where is that darn "stir the pot" smiley when you need it!

[jjmac69]

Killer

Think you hit it right one the head

[DennisS]

As a scientist, relying on analysis of numerical data and the synthesis of the same, I can't help but to revert back to a somewhat childish and immature subjective argument.

Whaaa?

When Jack Clark stepped up to the plate in the 1985 League Championship game six against Niedenfurer (bad spelling, I know), I KNEW he was going deep.

It the sports bar I was at, EVERYBODY knew he was going to walk Clark, and pitch to Pendleton.

BOOM! Ballgame.

What is clutch? It is something like Supreme Court Justice Berger talking about pornography.

"I can't define it, but I know it when I see it."

Mr. October was clutch. Joe Montana was clutch. Nicklaus and Tiger Woods were (are) clutch.

The ability to perform under great pressure is a wonderful trait. In my own humble way, I believe I have that trait, as well....as well as many of you, in the way you conduct your personal and professional lives.

I recently did some weather training for some linemen for the local electric company. I was asked a question about my forecasting ability, and working under stress in general. I asked them, in return, who was the best linemen amongst them, who could be counted on in a pinch.

Interesting...in a pinch....pinch hitting is an inherently clutch situation, heh heh.

The group, unanimously, pointed to one guy in the back. Not old, not young, but one everyone greatly respected to make the right decisions in an emergency - a clutch situation. My point was made, I think, and the bosses there made a mental note on the tremendous respect shown to this one individual. Very cool moment.

To make a long story too long, my response to them was that all of us have different strengths, and weaknesses, and it is a matter of training and discipline to bring out the best in ourselves. Personally, I suck as a weather forecaster, but with 26 years experience, I suck less than I used to.

Baseball players are no different from cooks, mechanics, linemen, or firemen.

Clutch DOES exist, as in life, people to rise up and do wonderful things.

Thanks for letting me ramble.

[Khaos]

Amen brother, but I'm still not donating to the church.

[Admore]

I will say that I believe totally in "clutch performances" - Kirk Gibson's gimpy homerun as a case in point. But I don't believe there is any thing that is measureable as "clutch ability" in any meaningful sense. Certainly not enough to put into a game. Consistency and streakiness are one thing, clutch ability is another.

There are players who have fallen below their amazing regular season accomplishments in the post season. There are players who have done better than they've ever done before or since in the post season. Still, who do you want at the plate in a close game - Jeff Bagwell or Barry Bonds, or Mark Lemke and Scott Brosius?

Simply identifying a few dozen at bats out of the hundreds and hundreds of PAs in players career and then calling that player a clutch player is a problem to me.

But I go back and forth. I KNOW I've seen clutch performances. But I know that I've seen those clutch players dissapoint sometimes too. No one remembers it.

BUT for the Game's Sake please give me a toggle to turn it OFF

[Newville]

Perhaps what we mean by "clutch" is that the player will not "choke". That is probably the case in the Nedenfuer/Clark matchup (better through in the Nedenfuer/O.Smith matchup as well)... i.e the pitcher may have preformed in a sub par manner rather than the batter performing in a "clutch" manner.

It is an interesting subject.

[Malleus Dei]

This idiocy yet again?

We've been over this and over this. There has been study after study. IF clutch hitting exists, the effect is about .001 on someone's BA. If it were any higher, then it would show up when statisticians and mathematicians (and especially Bill James) went looking for it - and guess what, it never, ever has.

Keep believing your cherished silly myths, guys. Oh, look, there's Elvis at the 7-11 buying a donut!

[DennisS]

Malleus,

Bill James, in his latest historical abstract, does address the clutch hitting issue....and identifies several baseball players, by name, as being clutch.

I would type in the page, but it isn't that important to me.

Oh, and lay off the aggressive attacks on others. It doesn't help your arguments any.