Ideal lineups?

[TheGreatAndini]

Ok, so I have only been a baseball nut for one year, so i don't really know what sort of hitter you want where

1st: Good Contact, eye, and avoid K's, as well as a good base runner.
2nd: Similar, but maybe a better gap hitter and decent bunter.
3rd: Big Home Run hitter, all about HR Power and Gap Power
4th: Similar to number 3, but maybe another guy who is better at gap hitting, or maybe the big hitter should be here and this guy in #3?

From here on I screw up

5th: Maybe similar to number one? Decent stealer and decent OBP?
6th: Good at gaps?

the last 3 I have no idea, a decent bunter maybe, and another fairly powerful hitter in number 8?


Am I on the right track?

[1998 Yankees]

For the sake of discussion, here's what I do, based on current batting ratings:

Pos Characteristics
1 Best combination of speed and eye
2 Best combination of contact and eye
3 Best combination of contact, power, and eye
4 Best power
5 Next best power
6 Next best power
7 Next best contact
8 Next best contact
9 Weakest hitter of all

As you can probably tell, I do this after I have the 9 guys selected who are going to be in the lineup. That I do based on fielding first, the best available at each position, then making sure a decent bat goes along with the glove. Then I go back over the roster to see if there are any really good hitters left on the bench that are worth compromising some fielding talent in order to get into the lineup, perhaps by platooning.

You're probably going to get plenty of responses with different opinions on what I included and what I did not include (like bunting, but I find that to be less important than eye) and whether it's better to put bat before glove. I like to keep things simple when I can, so after the tough job of picking the nine guys who will play, ranking them in the batting order is easy for me with this list.

[TheGreatAndini]

thanks, thats a big help actually. Gives me a rough idea of what i am supposed to do.

Aren't you playing in the minors only at the moment? It seems a good place to get the hang of setting up line ups.


Thanks for the help!

[1998 Yankees]

Originally Posted by TheGreatAndini

thanks, thats a big help actually. Gives me a rough idea of what i am supposed to do.

Aren't you playing in the minors only at the moment? It seems a good place to get the hang of setting up line ups.


Thanks for the help!

Yes, thanks for remembering me. Here's an update, if you're interested:

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...d.php?t=131851

Edit - Back to topic.

Your first batter gets on base a lot (eye) and sets the table by stealing bases (speed). The second batter helps move him along with a hit (contact) or a walk (eye) of his own (bunting is good here too). The third batter is the proverbial best hitter on the team, not necessarily the most powerful, but some combination of good contact, eye, and power. The fourth batter cleans up the bases with the long ball (power). If he fails, the fifth or sixth batters pick up the load (power). Numbers 7 through 9 are just in order of how well they make contact.

This is the traditional way of looking at a lineup, I believe. It's time-honored, so there must be some truth to it, although revisionists abound these days. For one thing, there is the school of thought that batting lineup order does not matter after the first time through it in a game. I still think that the bunching of high OBP people, table-setters as it were, ahead of your power guys is a good idea at any time in the game.

[fhomess]

It's important to remember that picking who to bat where is very different from picking which players to put on the field in the first place. The goal of the offense is to score as many runs as possible. Naturally, you want you best hitters to bat as many times as they can, so you put them near the top of the lineup. Guys with power are guys you want to have hit with other guys on base so they can drive in runs. Guys who get on base a lot or are able to get in scoring position (2nd or 3rd base) should bat in front of the big run producers. That's why you don't typically see Babe Ruth types batting first. Even though he'd get more at-bats that way, it wouldn't be a whole lot more at bats and he'd probably not have as many baserunners to drive in with all those home runs he hits.

I'd say it doesn't matter quite as much how you order the second half of your lineup as the first half because those guys are usually not all that different from each other. Some people prefer to have the high on-base percentage guys higher than the low OBP/high power guys, but that's more personal preference.

[sporr]

As fhomess stated, focus on getting the right players in your lineup. Studies have shown that the actual order won't make very much difference at all over the course of a season.

[bababui]

Originally Posted by sporr

As fhomess stated, focus on getting the right players in your lineup. Studies have shown that the actual order won't make very much difference at all over the course of a season.

Im interested to know how such studies are carried out? What methodology is used? Do they use prograns like DM or OOTP to sim multiple seasons?

[tysok]

Originally Posted by bababui

Im interested to know how such studies are carried out? What methodology is used? Do they use prograns like DM or OOTP to sim multiple seasons?

I don't remember exactly, but I saw one about the idea that the highest OBP guys should be at the top... making Bonds and Ruth the ideal lead off hitters. It makes perfect sense on paper, and if baseball was played by knowing the results then playing the game it's absolutely right.
It only focuses on what the player did as an individual hitting robotically in a vacuum, then translates that to interact with the team. The problem is there are situations, and the players aren't robots.
In a computer game where everything is figured out by the numbers alone it's probably not a bad way to organize your lineup at all.

Another reason for the traditional way of setting the lineup is that the team that scores first wins the ball game well more than half the time. So having it set up to score as quickly as possible is valid, and of course scoring the most runs as quickly as possible would be even better.

[gohorns98]

Originally Posted by bababui

Im interested to know how such studies are carried out? What methodology is used? Do they use prograns like DM or OOTP to sim multiple seasons?

I am not sure what programs they use, but I saw a special on Bill James about this. He showed how if you have 5 Babe Ruth's and 4 pitchers in the lineup then no matter what the order was the run production stayed about the same. It was interesting though I am still not sure I believe it.

[scefalu]

Originally Posted by bababui

Im interested to know how such studies are carried out? What methodology is used? Do they use prograns like DM or OOTP to sim multiple seasons?

The studies I am familiar with all used a Monte Carlo approach. So, each player has a probability assigned to their batting outcomes. You roll the dice and get your result. It's completely ignorant of situations and defensive strategies, like tysok said.

No games are used for this type of study. Instead, a simple computer program is written to generate the results.

[sporr]

Originally Posted by bababui

Im interested to know how such studies are carried out? What methodology is used? Do they use prograns like DM or OOTP to sim multiple seasons?

There have been others, but here's one: http://alumnus.caltech.edu/~raj/writ...tingOrder.html

[Cras]

imo,

Leadoff should be able to hit for average, have good to great speed, can bunt, avoid k's, draw walks, and sees a lot of pitches.

2nd Hitter should be able to bunt very well and can hit behind the runner. A little pop would be nice.

3rd Hitter should be the best hitter with HR power and who can draw walks and avoid K's.

4th Hitter should be the second best HR power, but still bats for decent average.

The 5th Hitter should be the best HR hitter you have, with no regards to average. You can afford to have a strike out king in the 5 hole if the guys in front can hit for a decent average and avoid k's in their own right.

[TNCubsFan]

First and foremost you should sit down and look at your 25 man roster.

If you have a speed demon team where you could steal 40 out of 50 bases up and down the line up, you will do that line-up diferently than a team where the weak hitter posts 20 homers.

Look at your middle infielders, catchers, and center fielder. In these four positions you are looking for a player that can play a solid defense. I am not saying sacrifice offense to put an top range SS with a low, low, low contact rating out there. I am saying that playing Jeff Kent at SS isnt the best idea.

First, Third, and the corner outfielders are all guys that you look for bats first and defense second. The above caveat applies here though. It dosent do you any good to have a guy who can drive in 120 runs if he is allowing in 140 with poor defense.
The 27 outs you have are more precious than diamonds. So are your opponents. Look to maximise yours while limiting your opponents. The easiest way is to limit your errors. This goes back to having a solid defense in the middle. The second is to maximise the number of runners you place on base.

Looking at the lineup construction, remember that 90% of the time a team that scores in the first inning wins. Keep in mind also that in 70% of games the winning team will post one inning where they score more runs than the other team does for the whole game. Lastly the first innning is really the only inning where you have absolute control over the lineup. After that you have no certainity who will lead off your next inning. For me then I look to construct a lineup that can maximise my chances to achieve both of the first two points made in this paragraph. Score in the first inning, and put up a big crooked number.

My primary key used through the line up is On Base Percentage. In the 2-7 slots I will look at On Base Plus Slugging (OPS) also. However my starting personel will have a huge impact on that. Rabbits vs. wallbangers.

My leadoff hitter I would prefer to have a OBP of at least 370. Power is a nice plus. I remember a year in college where our leadoff hitter hit 12 homers. Ten of those were in the first three pitches of the game. We won all ten games, seven which ended early because of the mercy rule, one against a nationaly ranked opponent.

My number two hitter I look for three things. One a solid OBP of atleast .350. Second a good contact rating. I want him to be a guy who can post 200+ hits in a year. Third is that he be a lefty. Think about it, where is the biggest hole on the infield with a runner on first? If my leadoff hitter hits a double or triple where do you want the next ball hit to advance the runner? They are both to the same place. The hole between the second baseman and the first baseman. Having a lefty in the two hole allows him to do naturally what we all do, and that is pull the ball. If I am facing a smart pitcher who is going to pitch away and not give him a pitch to pull, the good contact comes into play. I will be happy to let him drive the ball to the opposite field.

My number three hitter is a guy that I want the best combination of contact, OBP and OPS. Bases loaded walks are rare. Here I differ a little from the sabermetrics, maybe in termanology, in that the abilty to swing the bat is a little more important than the walk in the three, four, five slots. Note that I did say the best combination of contact, OBP, and OPS however. The strike out is an empty out most of the time. Remember that we are looking to maximise baserunners and moving them forward before the three outs of the inning come up.

My four and five hitters are very much like my three hitter except that I am more willing to give up some contact for OPS in my five hole hitter. However in a perfect world in case of injury my three to five hitters would be interchangable.

The six and seven hitters are going to fall to thier slots according to how they match up for OBP and OPS.

The eight hitter in an NL lineup is treated very diferently than the eight hitter in an AL lineup. In the NL lineup I am looking for a hitter that could be a leadoff guy. They will share the same qualities, it's just the eight hitter isnt quite at the same level as my leadoff. OBP in the eight hole is huge to me in a NL lineup. The AL eighth hitter is the same qualities as the six and seven.

The nineth hitter once again is AL/NL dependant. Ill take the AL first, here is the NL eight hitters spot in the AL lineup. I am looking for a high OBP guy to be on base for my best batters, note I did not say hitters, coming back up at the top of the line up. For the NL of course it is the pitchers spot. Pitchers are expected to lay down a sacrifice to advance the runner or if no one is on to prove some comedy by swinging a bat like I do these days. However I say that when you chose to execute a series of plays with the pitcher/baserunner is hugely important.

Lets assume that my opponent walked the eight hole hitter to face the weak hitting pitcher. Lets also assume that there are less than two outs. If my eight hole hitter is very capable of stealing second then lets give him that opportunity. (This is also why it is important that there are less than two outs. I really dont want to end an inning if I can avoid it with a pitcher leading off the next.) Then my pitcher can give up one of my precious outs to advance the runner to third. From third that runner can score any number of ways from the homerun to the passed ball/wild pitch.

If my runner on base however isnt capapble of stealing then I will bite my tounge, go ahead and sacrifice that runner up a base, even being aware that each out I give up reduces my chances of scoring that inning. This goes back to my belief that the strike out is an empty out most of the time.

Then of course you want to look at the batting handedness of the lineup. Sometimes you have back to back lefties who just fit too well in slots to seperate them with a righty. Sometimes you can break up the lefties and then force your opponent to "LaRussa" his bullpen if he wants/needs to have matchups in a critical situation.

I will say that not all these rules are hard and fast. How your team is constructed will have the greatest influence on how you can construct your lineup. Remember I said a "Rabbit" team would be constructed differently than a team of "Wallbangers"? If I can steal at will up and down the line up then I may just look at putting my best power guy in the one hole. After all the one hitter is going to come up more than the three, four, or five hitter over the course of a season. If I can get a quick homerun to lead off the game... then have him coming up as many times as possable over the year, why not?

In the end it all comes back to putting your players in the best situations to suceed and then getting out of thier way and allowing them too.

I hope that this has helped you a little bit. If there are any points you want to discuss fell free to pm me or post them here.

Good luck and enjoy.

[TheGreatAndini]

you guys have been a big help for me, thanks!

I didn't realise it could so complex

[TNCubsFan]

While I am thinking about it lets talk speed.

There are three types of speed. Basestealing, First to Third, and Turning doubles into singles. The first and the third can also be the second, but the second dosent have to translate into either. What do I mean? Lets take each in its turn and discuss them.

Basestealing speed:

This is not only the 90 foot sprint but also the ability to get a stealing lead, and a read of the pitcher. Since after all it is the pitcher that you will steal the base off of. A great base stealer is thought to posess plus speed, and most of the time will. However some of the great basestealers are not the speed demon but the guy who knows when, and how to get the stealing lead. In a few words it isnt the speed but the smarts to use it well.

First to Third:

This is to me the most important speed in baseball. This is also a baseball smarts ability. Basicly this is the not only the speed to make it from first to third on a hit to the outfield, but also the know when to stretch it and when not to. For me in the previous post this is the speed that my one and two hitters have to have. HAVE TO HAVE!!! A player with basestealing speed may not know how to run well from first to third. The speedster can be a double edged sword here when he isnt smart. Running into outs isnt smart period. Dont think I am saying dont steal, but be smart when you do it.

Doubles into singles speed:

This is the domain of catchers and other lumbering hulks. You will also find that when a player is injured but still playing that they will slide into this group. Basicly know that when you have a player in this group that it will be station to station on the bases. Take this into account in your late game strategy. In the situation where that player being replaced would be the tying or go ahead run, replace him. Down by three or more runs leave him in. Up by three or more then listen to the rythym of the game as to replace the player. This is where a bench that has a guy that can run, play several defense positions, and another that can slug is important.

Hope this helps you also.

Good luck.

[Cras]

So Station to Station guys would go into the Doubles into Singles catagory then?

[TNCubsFan]

Originally Posted by Cras

So Station to Station guys would go into the Doubles into Singles catagory then?

Yes, either due to lack of speed or minor injury.

[ctorg]

Here's the basic plan for me, which I don't always stick to:

1 - High OBP is the biggest thing, but I also want speed. Someone who hits a lot of doubles or triples is good, too, since that's better than stealing bases.
2 - Someone good at advancing runners and getting on base. Speed not nearly as important, but a good gap hitter.
3 - Combination of power and obp. This is the guy who will often be there to drive in the first two, but he also needs to be able to set up for the next guy.
4 - A base-clearer. The best homerun hitter. OBP less important than the ability to hit the ball hard.
5 - Here's where I differ from convention. OBP and speed again. Assuming #4 does his job, I start over. I can't always do this because I often don't have a good enough player to put here that will stop #4 from being intentionally walked or pitched around, but sometimes I can.
6 - OBP again.
7 - The best power hitter I have left.
8 - The best remaining hitter, obviously.
9 - Pitcher (I don't do DH leagues).

[jm47048]

Originally Posted by 1998 Yankees

For the sake of discussion, here's what I do, based on current batting ratings:

Pos Characteristics
1 Best combination of speed and eye
2 Best combination of contact and eye
3 Best combination of contact, power, and eye
4 Best power
5 Next best power
6 Next best power
7 Next best contact
8 Next best contact
9 Weakest hitter of all

I would agree with this for National League style baseball. If you are an American Leage style baseball fan, e.g. DH, then you want something more like this:

1 Best combination of speed and eye
2 Best combination of contact and eye
3 Best combination of contact, power, and eye
4 Best power
5 Best Combination of Contact and Power
6 Best Contact
7 Speed
8 Speed and Power
9 Second Leadoff Man/Speed

Some would argue with me, but this seems to work for me and I win games this way. Others have different approaches.

[jm47048]

Oh, and by the way, the reason that I say 1998 Yankees linup is for a National League style, is that generally a pitcher is placed 9th because he is the weakest hitter. On the Yankees this year, look at a guy like Cano. He is not the weakest hitter by far, but he is sometimes 9th because he is another great leadoff style hitter. Then again, Torre can be unconventional sometimes, e.g. batting A-Rod 6th last night.