Questions regarding ratings drops and contract extensions...

[Sudy Nym]

First of all, I'll pose the questions- then I'll include the story, for those who are interested.


1) If you release a player who's in the last year of his contract after you've signed him to a new extension, but before the end of the current season, are you responsible for his extension salary?

Mind you, I mean in the OOTP4 client- not in real-world baseball. To my knowledge, the extension is just forgotten if it has not been activated yet. But I'm curious as to whether anything happens that the client doesn't warn you about.

2) Can you release a player after the World Series/regular season (depending on how far your team gets) as long as the "proceed to next season" button has not yet been pressed?

I strongly assume yes, but am looking for some clarification.


And now, my story:

Basically, in my favourite internet league, the TSTBL, this season I've had the supreme misfortune of having two players lose talent not long after being signed to multi-year extensions.

One was to a fairly average yet reliable MR who dropped in two categories. As his ratings have not yet completely deteriorated, he's still had a fairly good season. But as he's rated fair in potential for most categories now, he'd be a burden in the future. I had signed him to a three-year, $900,000 contract- so even if I can't release him, it won't be a great financial loss.

But that's not the primary concern that I am seeking advice regarding. First of all, I should mention that the TSTBL started out as a rookie league, so the salary cap started low, and climbs incrementally each season. We're now in our fourth season (2005), and next year's salary cap will be $50,000,000. As you can expect, finances are tight for quite a few teams. Not too tight to build a contender and maintain the services of young players, but tight enough that you must watch where you put your money with extreme intensity.

The other player who dropped after I signed him is my DH Albert Pujols, my star player. Of the league's three complete seasons, Pujols has won the MVP award two out of three times, and he's in contention for a third. He leads the league, lifetime, in the categories of batting average (.350), RBI (572), and runs (533). He's second in doubles and hits, and third in homeruns. This in 2384 career at bats. As you can imagine, his decline is quite upsetting- I was hoping that he could spend his career with my team, and then retire to the HOF. But hey, that's baseball- and that's what I love about the game. I'm disappointed, but at the same time, excited.

But I'm still not sure what to do about him. Here are the facts: under the league's franchise player rule, he was re-signed to a somewhat-low $5,500,000 four-year contract. Under my brilliant-rated scout, his ratings at the beginning of the season were, if I recall correctly, good/8/8/7, good 8/8/8, average/4/4/4/, good/8/8/8, average/5/5/5, average/5/5/6. There might be slight variations. Anyway, as you can see, he'd border on being rated brilliant in average, doubles, and homeruns by some teams. In fact, he was for me prior to the league changing over to all brilliant scouts. He can play a mediocre 3B, but as I mentioned, I use him at DH. No speed, as you could guess. He's 25.

However, on that fateful day in late July, his potential fell in the categories of average, homeruns, BB's, and K's, meaning that he was rated A/G/A/A/F/F. Nothing more than an average player. Luckily, the next sim period, his talent in avoiding the K returned to average (though a poor consolation, if you ask me).

Of course, as it takes a while for the actual numerical ratings to visibly degrade, he's still playing great ball, and it's nearly the middle of September. As of now, I believe the only visible ratings drop has been an all-around drop of one point in the area of batting average. This brings on question number three:


3) In your experience, how long does it take for core ratings to degrade to meet potential?

I've heard that the fall will usually be complete within a season, if not sooner.

3b) What are the chances that his potentials will rise back up to meet his talent, as his avoiding K's talent did?

Or will I just see that his numbers have deteriorated in January of next year?


I'm rather at a loss as to what I should do.

From a sentimental point of view, I want to hold onto him and hope that he'll re-gain his poise. One player under-performing shouldn't be too much of a burden on me, as I have an offense-strong line-up.

On the other hand, what are the chances that he will return to his former skill level? And paying $22 mil over four years to an average player might not be smart in my league, especially as I have young talent coming up that could probably out-play Pujols at DH in one or two years (and I have a strong 3B, already).


So what is your opinion? Should I hold onto a declining (but young) player who up until now has been one of the league's top five offensive players (the best, in my opinion)?

Or, if possible, should I release him after the playoffs, cut my losses, be smart financially, and open up the DH spot to developing players?

It's business-sense versus sentimentality. Both have a role in baseball, fictional or otherwise. The situation isn't that unfamiliar, either. Very few players can contend for MVP from age 22 to 38. But the question is what to do with them when they're not in their prime.


Thank you very much for reading this- as usual, I would appreciate any and all help or advice that you could give me.

[I Am The Game]

Personally, I would cut ties with Pujols, as 5.5Million for an average player really isn't any good for any team, nevermind one with a $50Million budget basically. I'd try to sign him to less in the offseason, in hopes of remaining with my team. I'd go after him with a two-year contract, let him DH until the kid you got in the minors is ready for a full-time major league job and see if maybe he returns to greatness. If he does, you can re-sign him at the end of his two-year deal.

[AsTrOFaN]

1. I don't think you pay anything except for the season.
2. Not sure
3. Depends on the variation. Can be a few months or even more than a year.
3b. Yes, although not all of them (maybe 2 or 3 out of 4)

[Sudy Nym]

Thank you both.

I'd try to sign him to less in the offseason, in hopes of remaining with my team.

That's an interesting point, and something that I've thought seriously about attempting. The hitch is that, in the past, I've found that salary demands are based upon numerical ratings and not potential. Hence, I don't know who would sign Pujols if his ratings are still somewhat high in comparison to his potential during the free agent bidding period. But then, I suppose it would still be better to lose him than to pay him the contract that he's currently signed to.

[Darren Drewitz]

Move him. I would try to find someone that is looking for that position and trade him to them. Tell them that you need the room for your young players and want that spot. Get what you can for him and save yourself some money.

[I Am The Game]

Trading him is also a good way to go, if the extension has already taken place. You should probably feel out his market and see if you can get something decent for him. If it hasn'r kicked in yet, and if you can't, like I said cut him and re-sign him. Even if you get him for 4Mil, it's still an extra 1.5 you can spend on a good reliever, or get a couple bench players.

[Sudy Nym]

I agree. And I wish that I could trade him, but as the deadline has passed (in fact, I missed it by one sim period), I'd have to wait until the offseason, as in, next January. By then, his value is bound to have fallen even more, and I highly doubt that anyone would be willing to pay his salary at that point. I do intend to ask around, but it looks like cutting him and then trying to re-sign him for less would indeed be the best approach.

Thanks again.

[Kelric]

Don't forget that the kid is only 25, and still has plenty of time to get potential talent boosts (or more drops!).

[Sudy Nym]

Haha, yes, that's what I love about it- it's always a gamble.

[Killebrew]

I agree with those that say dump him. The scouts thing throws a wrench into the idea though as it's remotely possible his talents are still pretty good. The safe thing is to dump him tho - in a trade if you can, maybe release him if that is allowed.

Originally posted by Sudy Nym
[i]1) If you release a player who's in the last year of his contract after you've signed him to a new extension, but before the end of the current season, are you responsible for his extension salary?

Sorry I don't know, but this is very easy to test.

Originally posted by Sudy Nym
2) Can you release a player after the World Series/regular season (depending on how far your team gets) as long as the "proceed to next season" button has not yet been pressed?

I think so, also easy to test though.

Originally posted by Sudy Nym
3) In your experience, how long does it take for core ratings to degrade to meet potential? I've heard that the fall will usually be complete within a season, if not sooner.

For older players this is quick - 2-4 months for a 37+ year old in a talent drop spiral. If his ratings were very high that will enable him to be usable a little longer of course. For younger players it can be slow - some young guys can even recover from talent hits - rare though.

Originally posted by Sudy Nym
3b) What are the chances that his potentials will rise back up to meet his talent, as his avoiding K's talent did? Or will I just see that his numbers have deteriorated in January of next year?

Potentials are talent, so that rise up was a fluke just as the drops were and you can't count on anything except that numeric ratings are always drawn towards the talent/potential ratings.

[Hammer755]

It is my opinion that it's dirty pool to release a guy after you've signed him to a contract extension. You've committed the money to him, both you and the player have accepted the terms, and just because the game has a loophole that allows you to dump him doesn't mean you should.

Look at it this way, would it be fair if you signed him, but were forced (by the commish, perhaps - this is just hypothetical) to release him because his talents received a boost after signing an extension? After all, he's a better player now than the one you negotiated with. Is it fair you get to sign him under his pre-boost talents? That's the same as what you are asking, only with the roles reversed.

I think you owe it to your league to stick with the extension and perhaps you can trade him before his ratings start dropping too severely.

Again, this is just my opinion.

[spleen1015]

I like Hammer's POV. You would definitely keep the guy if his ratings went up.

[obaslg]

1) No. The only thing that happens is that he does not appear on the html report of available FAs, though he is still available as one.
2) Yes.
3)a) When the decline is due to age or injury, about one season. Otherwise, I can't say.
b) About the same as any movement in any player. That's something of a guess. In my experience, I'm not sure I've ever seen a bounce-back, but it certainly hasn't happened more often than any other increase.

I did what you're considering once. It's obviously weird, and I considered proposing a prohibition of it. That issue aside, I'm not sure I would do it in this case. In my experience it's very rare to see ratings drop in young players without injury; I would interpret this more as a sign that he won't improve further. If he stays where he is, he's still very valuable to you.