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Old 07-10-2006, 10:41 AM   #1
tysok
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Arbitration:

I had this mixed in with another thread about the players accepting ridiculously low offers... that was in this thread: http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...eply&p=1772790

Instead of continuing the arbitration problem there, I'll make this new and cool thread.

I'll trim it down to the couple examples that were problems:
Why would a guy end up getting less than half of what he had made the previous year in arbitration?
Here's what I have:
My star 1B was making roughly 6 mil a year, hit .274 with 27 HRs and 95 RBIs last year... got a new contract for 2.2 mil.
One of my MR was making 2 mil, went 6-0 with 14 saves 3.2 ERA 1.1 WHIP last year... got a new contract for 479 grand.

The problem in the other thread was (for mine) a guy that would have ended up in arbitration, and would have ended up with a similar drop as these guys, signed instead for a ridiculously low amount (minimum).

The problems could be interrelated, or the TT# for that may include both problems... but I'd rather be sure and have both problems fixed than to have them not accepting ridiculously low offers but still getting screwed in arbitration and have to go through this again.
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Old 07-11-2006, 05:22 PM   #2
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Thanks, this thread is cool, and I appreciate you making it a separate thread. That really helps us.

This is logged as TT # 2176.

Thanks!

Steve
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Old 07-11-2006, 06:29 PM   #3
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Update on this... the 1B got 3.4 mil through his next arbitration. He hit .285 with 39 HRs 147 RBIs this last year. In contract negotiation he was asking for 13 mil a year, which was good... but the arb value isn't.

My RF just went through arb as well... he got a 500k raise... but his first contract was structured so he averaged 9 mil a year. Through the four years he played he won the best batter of the year twice, he's average 40 HRs a year, 114 RBIs a year, 139 Runs scored a year, 33 stolen bases a year, and .341 average. He was asking for 14 mil.

My SS who hit 48 HRs, 160 RBIs, .337 average last year got 6.5 mil. He was asking for 14.5
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Old 07-11-2006, 06:45 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tysok
Update on this... the 1B got 3.4 mil through his next arbitration. He hit .285 with 39 HRs 147 RBIs this last year. In contract negotiation he was asking for 13 mil a year, which was good... but the arb value isn't.

My RF just went through arb as well... he got a 500k raise... but his first contract was structured so he averaged 9 mil a year. Through the four years he played he won the best batter of the year twice, he's average 40 HRs a year, 114 RBIs a year, 139 Runs scored a year, 33 stolen bases a year, and .341 average. He was asking for 14 mil.

My SS who hit 48 HRs, 160 RBIs, .337 average last year got 6.5 mil. He was asking for 14.5
Those numbers do seem pretty low, but keep in mind that real-life arbitration figures also tend to be on the low-ish side the first and second time around, with large figures "reserved" for guys with 5+ years of service time (i.e. last arbitration year). Your 1B guy was in his 3rd arbitration year if I'm reading between the lines correctly, but how about the other players?

And why the heck was your right-fielder getting 9m per year if he still had arbitration left?
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Old 07-11-2006, 08:04 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zeyes
Those numbers do seem pretty low, but keep in mind that real-life arbitration figures also tend to be on the low-ish side the first and second time around, with large figures "reserved" for guys with 5+ years of service time (i.e. last arbitration year). Your 1B guy was in his 3rd arbitration year if I'm reading between the lines correctly, but how about the other players?

And why the heck was your right-fielder getting 9m per year if he still had arbitration left?
I don't understand arbitration. My 36 year old catcher went through last year, he had 16 years service time.
When the league was created that RF was a free agent, I signed him up for 4 years. He went through arbitration this year.
The 1B was the same, I had him signed for 2 years at 7 mil, his first arbitration dropped him to 2 mil, second he's at 3 mil.
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Old 07-11-2006, 11:51 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tysok
I don't understand arbitration. My 36 year old catcher went through last year, he had 16 years service time.
Alright, now I'm pretty lost, too. That sounds like the listed service time for players from the initial draft is just for show.

Quote:
When the league was created that RF was a free agent, I signed him up for 4 years. He went through arbitration this year.
The 1B was the same, I had him signed for 2 years at 7 mil, his first arbitration dropped him to 2 mil, second he's at 3 mil.
Alright, I guess those original contracts make sense, then...arby still shouldn't have dropped your 1B below his previous contract though, I think.

Last edited by Zeyes; 07-11-2006 at 11:52 PM.
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Old 07-12-2006, 12:31 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zeyes
Alright, now I'm pretty lost, too. That sounds like the listed service time for players from the initial draft is just for show.
I dunno... I had a 26 year old reliever that went straight to free agency, had one year service time.

I believe, don't remember exactly, that I had a 27 year old pitcher that was in free agency after the first season I played. I signed him to one year contract, he went through arbitration the next season.

I thought there were some circumstances where a guy with a big league contract would go through arbitration (I mean a real one, not an arbitration contract or the minimum). I know for draft pick compensation (in MLB) they have to offer arbitration, but thought there was other occasions too... like I said I don't understand arbitration.
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Old 07-12-2006, 10:29 AM   #8
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Alright, I need to talk about this some more.

First off, Tysok, if you have concerns about the way service time is being handled, etc., could you please open a new thread? I don't want to derail this thread.

Meanwhile, Markus let me know that previous contracts do not currently factor into an arbitration decision. So, there's no code that says "He WAS making X, so he can't make less than that."

I'm trying to get a better sense of how arbitration SHOULD actually behave, and back it up with some data, before I ask Markus to change anything.

Any research/feedback would be greatly appreciated!

Steve
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Old 07-12-2006, 12:48 PM   #9
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I'll do what I can... which may or may not be much.

First to look at who I'm talking about:
---My star 1B was making roughly 6 mil a year, hit .274 with 27 HRs and 95 RBIs last year... got a new contract for 2.2 mil.
This guy would have had 3 years service time at this contract.
---the 1B got 3.4 mil through his next arbitration. He hit .285 with 39 HRs 147 RBIs this last year.
This would have been at 4 years.
His first 2 years he hit for total of 74 HRs, 260 RBIs, .270 Avg, 335 OBP, 500 SLG
Career totals: 137 HRs, 505 RBIs, .270 Avg, .358 OBP, .508 SLG
The nearest guys to compare him to, at 1B in service time:
155 HRs, 473 RBIs, .303 Avg, .373 OBP, .548 SLG
This guy got a 1 year 4 mil contract when my 1B got his average 6 mil contract. He got 2 automatic renewals at 4 mil, then got a 2 year 11 mil a year deal
127 HRs, 461 RBIs, .289 Avg, .358 OBP, .513 SLG
This guy 1 year 3 mil deal when my 1B first signed with me, got 2 automatic renewals at 3 mil, and then signed an extension for 2 years, 5.5 mil a year.
87 HRs, 308 RBIs, .281 Avg, .343 OBP, .486 SLG
This guy was a minor leaguer at league start up. He just got a 4.5 mil arbitration contract. His season, to compare to my 1B: 29 HRs, 96 RBIs, .267 Avg, .346 OBP, .509 SLG. He's got one less service year than my guy, so that's his first arb contract.
123 HRs, 338 RBIs, .284 Avg, .358 OBP, .517 SLG
This guy got a 1 year 4 mil a year deal when my 1B was signed, he got 3 automatic renewals, then arbitration at 3.7 mil. His last year stats for comparison: 30 HRs, 115 RBIs, .282 Avg, .360 OBP, .517 SLG.

So that's my 1B comparable etc... obviously poor Byars got screwed. I'll check on some of the others when I get back home.
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Old 07-12-2006, 02:29 PM   #10
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Forgot to mention my 1B is the career leader in hits and RBIs, second in HRs, and in the top 4 in every category except Avg, OBP and SLG where he is in the top 10.
He's extraordinarily resilient, played in every game the last 4 years, so leads career boards in games played and at bats. He's also very comparable to those other 1B fielding wise, falls about in the middle of them in every category.
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Old 07-12-2006, 02:54 PM   #11
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The RF that just went through arbitration, was making 9 mil now making 7.5. He has 5 years service time.
His numbers last year: 39 HRs, 114 RBIs, .345 Avg, .475 OBP, .599 SLG.
His numbers for career: 133 HRs, 383 RBIs, .342 Avg, .477 OBP, .595 SLG.
He's the RF career leader in every good offensive stat except game played, at bats, stolen bases and singles, of which he's in the top 8.
He's the overall career leader in Avg, OBP, SLG, and VORP. He's in the top 10 in most of the others.

For comparison of guys with his service time...
4 guys with equal or less have signed extension deals for 12 mil a year plus.
130 HRs, 380 RBIs, .310 Avg, .420 OBP, .565 SLG. This guy signed at the same time as my RF for 1 year 4.8 mil. Got 2 automatic renewals, 7.2 through arb and now 7.7 through arb. Last season for comparison, 38 HRs, 114 RBIs, .299 Avg, .406 OBP, .565 SLG. He has 4 years service time.

Those are the only 5 comparable guys in RF, for service time and production. Obviously the teams for those first 4 should have let them go to arb... they screwed themselves. 3 more guys have 13+ mil a year contracts with 6 years service time.
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Old 07-12-2006, 03:15 PM   #12
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Personally, I think Markus's "collusion" code between the arbitrators and the owners is kicking in.

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Old 07-12-2006, 03:35 PM   #13
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The SS that just went through arb, getting 6.5 mil was making 1 mil a year, had 3 automatic renewals.
His numbers last year: 48 HRs, 136 RBIs, .337 Avg, .394 OBP, .639 SLG.
He led SS that year in everything except games, ABs, 2Bs, Walks and strike outs.

Comparable service time, one far lesser player has signed an extension deal for 13 mil a year.
29 HRs, 107 RBIs, .304 Avg, .335 OBP, .522 SLG. Was making 1 mil a year, 3 automatic renewals. Now has a 6.8 mil contract through arbitration.


Making less through arbitration than they were will probably equal out as the league progresses... the problem was these guys were free agents at start up instead of being minor leaguers somewhere so they got big money, arbitration just brought them down as though they were minimum paid players getting a raise.
The problem is that ownership won every case.
Arbitration, as I understand it, the player makes a demand (in this case would have been 14.5 mil), the team makes and offer (in this case obviously it was 6.5) and the arbitrator decides who wins... in these cases the team is always winning... even when this guy puts up the best stats for a SS the league has ever seen.
Or in the case of my RF, a guy that leads every offensive category for the last 4 years, the team won the case.
Here's some real numbers:
1987, Don Mattingly requested 1.975 mil, team offered 1.7 mil, award was 1.975.
1992 Palmeiro requested 3.85, team offered 2.35, award was 3.85.
1990 Jeter requested 5 mil, team offered 3.2, award was 5.
2001 Andruw Jones requested 8.2 mil, team offered 6.4, award was 8.2.
The team wins 59% of the time as of 2004. In these cases I've brought up, the team has won 100% of the time in the game.
It has to look at how good the player is compared to everyone in the league, as well as how he compares with players of his service time.
In some cases, in the game, comparable service time put him in the right salary range, but comparable to everyone in the league at his position he blows EVERYONE away. Soriano didn't get 10 mil this last year because he was unbelievably better than every other 2B that had 5 years service time, it was because his offense output was in the top tier of everyone in the league at his position. Same with Andruw Jones in 2001, it's not just how he compares to others with the same service time, it's also how he compares to everyone (1 year service time to 15 year service time).

Beyond that, here's some pages to read over.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...t-arbitration/
Here's a quote from that page, exact wording from the current basic agreement:
"The arbitration panel shall, except for a Player with five or more years of Major League service, give particular attention, for comparative salary purposes, to the contracts of Players with Major League service not exceeding one annual service group above the Player's annual service group. This shall not limit the ability of a Player or his representative, because of special accomplishment, to argue the equal relevance of salaries of Players without regard to service, and the arbitration panel shall give whatever weight to such argument as is deemed appropriate."

It takes into account all salaries of players of equal service time... so those guys that had signed extensions for 13+ mil a year with the same service time should have come into play.

Same page:
"The player's contribution to his team
His previous salary
The salaries of players in a similar class"
It has to look at his previous salary. It makes no sense at all that if a guy is making 9 mil a year that he's suddenly worth less because he's in arbitration. This would work itself out in my league as I get away from the players that were free agents with low service time upon creation... but could this be a continuing problem in some more elaborate universes? If the team was willing to pay him 9 mil for what he did last year, it shouldn't be looking at lowly minor league up and comers to determine his worth for the next year... it should never be a 50% drop in salary.

This page is just a history of arbitration, what the player asked for, what the team offered, and what the award was:
http://roadsidephotos.com/baseball/A...ionresults.htm
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Old 07-12-2006, 04:21 PM   #14
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Further to tysok's information - arbitration figures need to be at least 80% of the previous year's salary, as per the current CBA:
Quote:
A Club may submit a salary figure for salary arbitration that is at least 80% of the Player's previous year's salary and earned performance bonuses (and at least 70% of his salary and earned performance bonuses two years previous) ...
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Old 07-13-2006, 11:04 PM   #15
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I'm going to take a chance and let my last two stars go through arbitration their final time. I have the money this year to lock them up long term, probably won't next year... but I want to see what those arbitration numbers come out to be. Should be by Tuesday probably.

In other words, a little bump so I can find this when I have the final numbers.
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Old 07-14-2006, 09:33 AM   #16
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Tysok,

I've been talking with Markus about this. I don't think it's likely he's going to tweak the arbitration model in a patch. I know that he wanted to do more with this model, including tendering offers, but ran out of time for this release.

At this point, I believe Markus is going to postpone working on this until the next full release.

If that's the case, I'm likely going to move this over to Closed issues for now.

Let me know what you think. Thanks,

Steve
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Old 07-14-2006, 09:41 AM   #17
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My ...if anything, I think it would be nice to see the 80% minimum floor instituted, as that alone ought to ensure that the arbitration figures come out a little more life-like, even if the rest of the arby model isn't touched.
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Old 07-14-2006, 12:47 PM   #18
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I don't have a huge problem with that... but it does need a slight tweak. At the least, like Zeyes said, it needs to institute the maximum possible drop.

The only other thing, assuming that the whole model will basically stay the same as it is until the next release, is it should bump the arb salary for the absolute superstar players. I don't have a huge issue with the junk-good players... but the superstars need a little more bump.7.5 mil for my 5 superstars is a joke... I've won 4 straight world series and don't even have 100 mil in payroll.
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Old 07-15-2006, 05:53 PM   #19
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Their final years through arbitration was the same slope, one got 500 thousand more the other got 700 thousand more... the stat outputs were a little more than the previous year.

It's definately not accurate, so if it's not going to get any work until the next version it definately needs to be looked at carefully in that next version.
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