Stealing Third...

jbsnadb · 06-12-2006, 04:51 PM

Is anybody else bothered by the fact that your computer opponant steals 3rd with amazing ease and frequency? I haven't done any calculations per se, but the percentage of stolen bases to third I have given up is somehwere in the neighborhood of 70%.

Please tell me this will be looked at at least for patch 2.

Syd Thrift · 06-12-2006, 05:03 PM

FWIW, IRL players tend to steal third with a success rate around 5% higher than when they steal second. A lot of that is due to selection bias; players are *far* more selective as to when they steal third as opposed to second. Another much smaller factor is that it's really, really hard to hold a man on second compared to first. Yes, pitchers can fake a move without getting called for a balk, but even so he has to wheel around 180 degrees to do so.

If my league had guys successfully stealing 3rd 70% of the time when my league was stealing other bases with the same rate, and I knew it was statistically significant, I might complain that steals of 3rd are too hard.

jbsnadb · 06-12-2006, 07:11 PM

The success rate of stealing third is not 70%.

70% of all stolen bases in my league are steals of third. There is no being selective. Almost every AI baserunner with a spd/steal rating of 16 or above steals third at a roughly 95% success rate.

jbergey22 · 06-12-2006, 09:47 PM

You are both right to a degree. It is statistically a better chance that you will be safe stealing 3rd, however it should not be common. In fact it needs to be an uncommon thing to steal 3rd, even the very BEST base stealers steal 3rd less then 15% of their total steals. I believe Rickey Henderson stole 3rd 30(if memory serves correct) times during the year he had 130 steals, which is probably the most in history during any year.

Syd Thrift · 06-12-2006, 10:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jbsnadb

The success rate of stealing third is not 70%.

You're right. Most years, it's 75% or better. Again, in large part because of what jbergey said.

Quote:

70% of all stolen bases in my league are steals of third. There is no being selective. Almost every AI baserunner with a spd/steal rating of 16 or above steals third at a roughly 95% success rate.

Hmm. I see a lot of steals of both 2nd and 3rd but then again I generally play with steals turned all the way up.

Cooker · 06-13-2006, 12:43 PM

In my limited experience so far, I've seen an unusually large number of steals of 3B, averaging once every 2 or 3 games (playing out all my games). That seems way too high.

The success rate doesn't bother me. It's the frequency of stealing 3B. Some stat geek can probably find the per-game average of steal attempts at 3B in MLB. It's got to be lower than in OOTPBM2006.

Let me clarify. This clearly isn't a huge problem. But I suspect the AI should be tweaked on this issue.

White Sox · 06-13-2006, 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jbsnadb

Is anybody else bothered by the fact that your computer opponant steals 3rd with amazing ease and frequency? I haven't done any calculations per se, but the percentage of stolen bases to third I have given up is somehwere in the neighborhood of 70%.

Please tell me this will be looked at at least for patch 2.

Hah. Welcome to the world of the real life White Sox pitching staff, the easiest staff to run on in the history of the game.

jbsnadb · 06-13-2006, 03:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

You're right. Most years, it's 75% or better. Again, in large part because of what jbergey said.

Hmm. I see a lot of steals of both 2nd and 3rd but then again I generally play with steals turned all the way up.

Syd,

Please read the whole post before responding. I was only pointing out what I meant when I said 70%, and not what you thought I meant.

I'm just getting sick and tired of a runner on second translating into a near automatic runner on third. Then, I have to play my infield in just to get a shot at getting the guy out at the plate, since that's the only way to get my infielders to throw home.

fauteuil7 · 06-13-2006, 05:57 PM

I've found this too, even when I've dropped the stealing frequency in the league preferences tab.

jaymac89 · 06-13-2006, 10:03 PM

In addition to tweaking the steal of third frequency, it might also be a good idea to allow the user to hold runner on second, which in reality is the 2b or the SS cheating in to keep the runner closer.

rasnell · 06-13-2006, 10:06 PM

I've never caught a runner stealing on a pitchout, even with a catcher with a 100 arm. Now tops 50 tries in three seasons.

jbsnadb · 06-14-2006, 12:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rasnell

I've never caught a runner stealing on a pitchout, even with a catcher with a 100 arm. Now tops 50 tries in three seasons.

I have...ONCE.

Marc Duffy · 07-05-2006, 07:12 AM

We had trouble reproducing this.

Exodor · 07-05-2006, 03:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marc Duffy

We had trouble reproducing this.

?

Just play out a few games against a speedy team. Walk a couple of guys to get them on first and second, then go pitch-by-pitch.

I'd say 80% of the time the runners take off, and it's very, very rare to see the runner get thrown out at third, no matter the ratings of the catcher.

06-12-2006, 04:51 PM	#1
jbsnadb All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 1,098	Stealing Third... Is anybody else bothered by the fact that your computer opponant steals 3rd with amazing ease and frequency? I haven't done any calculations per se, but the percentage of stolen bases to third I have given up is somehwere in the neighborhood of 70%. Please tell me this will be looked at at least for patch 2.

06-13-2006, 10:03 PM	#10
jaymac89 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Walnut Creek, CA Posts: 69	In addition to tweaking the steal of third frequency, it might also be a good idea to allow the user to hold runner on second, which in reality is the 2b or the SS cheating in to keep the runner closer. __________________ "I have nothing to declare except my genius." --Oscar Wilde

06-12-2006, 05:03 PM	#2
Syd Thrift Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 10,612	FWIW, IRL players tend to steal third with a success rate around 5% higher than when they steal second. A lot of that is due to selection bias; players are far more selective as to when they steal third as opposed to second. Another much smaller factor is that it's really, really hard to hold a man on second compared to first. Yes, pitchers can fake a move without getting called for a balk, but even so he has to wheel around 180 degrees to do so. If my league had guys successfully stealing 3rd 70% of the time when my league was stealing other bases with the same rate, and I knew it was statistically significant, I might complain that steals of 3rd are too hard.

06-12-2006, 07:11 PM	#3
jbsnadb All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 1,098	The success rate of stealing third is not 70%. 70% of all stolen bases in my league are steals of third. There is no being selective. Almost every AI baserunner with a spd/steal rating of 16 or above steals third at a roughly 95% success rate.

06-12-2006, 09:47 PM	#4
jbergey22 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Minnesota Posts: 3,481	You are both right to a degree. It is statistically a better chance that you will be safe stealing 3rd, however it should not be common. In fact it needs to be an uncommon thing to steal 3rd, even the very BEST base stealers steal 3rd less then 15% of their total steals. I believe Rickey Henderson stole 3rd 30(if memory serves correct) times during the year he had 130 steals, which is probably the most in history during any year.

06-13-2006, 12:43 PM	#6
Cooker All Star Reserve Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Columbus, OH Posts: 592	In my limited experience so far, I've seen an unusually large number of steals of 3B, averaging once every 2 or 3 games (playing out all my games). That seems way too high. The success rate doesn't bother me. It's the frequency of stealing 3B. Some stat geek can probably find the per-game average of steal attempts at 3B in MLB. It's got to be lower than in OOTPBM2006. Let me clarify. This clearly isn't a huge problem. But I suspect the AI should be tweaked on this issue.

06-13-2006, 05:57 PM	#9
fauteuil7 Major Leagues Join Date: Nov 2003 Posts: 356	I've found this too, even when I've dropped the stealing frequency in the league preferences tab.

06-13-2006, 10:06 PM	#11
rasnell Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Frankfort, Kentucky Posts: 3,746	I've never caught a runner stealing on a pitchout, even with a catcher with a 100 arm. Now tops 50 tries in three seasons.

07-05-2006, 07:12 AM	#13
Marc Duffy SI Marketing Wizard Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Old Street, London Posts: 4,741	We had trouble reproducing this.