AI considering park factors?

MannyTrillo · 01-13-2003, 07:30 PM

I would have never expected that the AI actually considers its home park factors in evaluating players, but...

I'm running a solo fictional league in which one league has all park factors around 85, and the other around 105. I'm using talents only, and have played 2.5 seasons. I looked at where players with "Brilliant" talent in hitting homers have ended up, and found that the pitchers' park league has only 7 of them, while the hitters' park league has 23. This might be a coincidence, but it doesn't look like it... if the AI does in fact consider its own park factors, that's an awfully cool detail to the game.

lynchjm24 · 01-13-2003, 09:12 PM

Except that there would be no reason to avoid homerun hitters in a pitcher's park. Runs are even more valuable there.
Exhibit A - Oakland.

MannyTrillo · 01-14-2003, 12:24 AM

It's a matter of opinion I suppose, but I would say exactly the opposite. Wouldn't a guy who hits 30 HR in a pitchers' park likely hit a lot more warning track flies that would be homers somewhere else than a guy who hits 10 HR playing in the same park? If so, you're wasting home runs, and would be better off trading the 30 HR guy for someone equally as good whose strengths lie elsewhere.

Sure, runs are more important in a bigger park- but it's relatively easier to get them by means other than home runs.

lynchjm24 · 01-14-2003, 07:07 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by MannyTrillo
It's a matter of opinion I suppose, but I would say exactly the opposite. Wouldn't a guy who hits 30 HR in a pitchers' park likely hit a lot more warning track flies that would be homers somewhere else than a guy who hits 10 HR playing in the same park? If so, you're wasting home runs, and would be better off trading the 30 HR guy for someone equally as good whose strengths lie elsewhere.

Sure, runs are more important in a bigger park- but it's relatively easier to get them by means other than home runs.

Well I totally disagree.
If you would please explain the success of:
A. Mark McGwire in St. Louis
B. Barry Bonds in San Francisco

2 HR hitters in 'pitcher's parks'.

Sim Rat · 01-14-2003, 07:50 AM

A. Steroids and andro
B. Steroids and andro

Beyond the above factors, you need to get up to speed with your information about the two ballparks in question.

Busch Stadium is HARDLY a pitchers' ballpark anymore. In 1992, the left field and right field fences were lowered by 2.5 feet, and the fences were brought in all around. They were brought in anywhere from 8 to 12 feet, depending on the field location. Then in 1996, the foul lines were brought in yet another three feet. Now THAT, along with "supplements," is what explains Mark McGwire.

And in case you didn't notice, PacBell Park was built for Barry Bonds. The park is built for his batting handedness and his hitting tendencies. And gee, Barry Bonds had hit 40 or more home runs in just three out of 14 seasons until the Giants moved to PacBell. Then he hit 49, 73, and 49. What a man!

When those two 'roid freaks can hit even 50 home runs in a place like Comerica Park, then maybe I'd believe their power totals have some kind of legitmacy. But McGwire is now retired (gee, I wonder why he had so many injuries during his career ... could it be the high tendency among 'roid users to sustain injuries?) and Barry Bonds isn't headed for Detroit anytime soon.

ctorg · 01-14-2003, 08:54 AM

I did a test a while back on how power hitters fare in pitchers parks. Whether it's the same in real baseball, I don't know, but in OOTP, power hitters severely underperform (their average drops along with their homers) in parks where homers are harder to hit. It's not true 100% of the time, but in the vast majority of cases it is. Pitchers also last longer in games, so middle relief is less important.

Sim Rat · 01-14-2003, 09:19 AM

Yes, that is how it works in real life. Pedro Guerrero and Vinny Castilla are just two examples of how switching to a pitcher's park or leaving a hitter's park can have a dramatic impact on home runs. When Guerrero ended up in St. Louis (long before the fences were lowered and moved in), he could not hit home runs worth a damn anymore. He was hitting 25 to 35 in Los Angeles, and once get got to St. Louis, he went in the toilet. He couldn't hit 20 home runs to save his life and it marked the beginning of the end of his career.

Vinny Castilla was slamming 40 home runs in Colorado, but since then he's become a mediocre player at best. In Tampa, Houston, and Atlanta, his home run production has dropped by over 50%.

Crapshoot · 01-14-2003, 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Sim Rat
A. Steroids and andro
B. Steroids and andro

Beyond the above factors, you need to get up to speed with your information about the two ballparks in question.

And in case you didn't notice, PacBell Park was built for Barry Bonds. The park is built for his batting handedness and his hitting tendencies. And gee, Barry Bonds had hit 40 or more home runs in just three out of 14 seasons until the Giants moved to PacBell. Then he hit 49, 73, and 49. What a man!

When those two 'roid freaks can hit even 50 home runs in a place like Comerica Park, then maybe I'd believe their power totals have some kind of legitmacy. But McGwire is now retired (gee, I wonder why he had so many injuries during his career ... could it be the high tendency among 'roid users to sustain injuries?) and Barry Bonds isn't headed for Detroit anytime soon.

You need to check your information, rather than coming up with whatever junk is spoonfed to you by SI and co..
First, Pac Bell has been the worst park for left handed hitters
in baseball; overall also, it had a park factor of 920 from 1999-2001. In case you dont get it, that means its a damn good pitchers park, far better than Comercia for that matter, which has a park factor of 990 for the same period. Try again.

Crapshoot · 01-14-2003, 09:56 AM

ESPN uses a different calculation than baseballprospectus,
but pray read the following blurb:

"I remember taking one look at the plans at the beginning of 2000, seeing the 309-foot wall in right field, and immediately drafting left-handed slugger Barry Bonds and then J.T. Snow. Indeed, left-handed power hitters do have a short porch in right to shoot for - the distance to the right-field foul pole is the shortest in the bigs. But the fence slides sharply away to a very, very, VERY deep power alley in right center, where the distance from home plate is 420 feet. The result: Pac Bell suppressed left-handed home runs by 43% last year and 23% in its inaugural year, and played neutral for RHR. " - from ESPN

Park Factors

Run HR Avg L-Avg R-Avg L-HR R-HR H 2B 3B
2000 84 91 95 92 132 77 102 92 93 86
2001 82 91 92 84 98 57 67 91 104 139

What Bonds would do in a park like Coors or even Fenway
is unimaginable..

Sim Rat · 01-14-2003, 04:28 PM

People can quote ESPN or ridiculous "park factors" all they want. If you study Barry Bonds' swing and his hitting tendencies, you know that he is almost a dead pull hitter because of his bat speed. So, gee, that short porch in right field sure comes in handy at PacBell. What does a deep power alley in right center matter when you can consistently yank the ball straight down the line or in dead right field for home runs? PacBell park is built for Barry Bonds, period.

Those other left handed hitters who struggle at PacBell don't have his bat speed. So THEY are the ones who have a tough time with that right center field power alley. THEY are the ones whose production has dipped. But Bonds just lines the damn ball to dead right or down the line and he rockets it out of the park. And, hence his production spiked upward as soon as he started hitting at PacBell.

Crapshoot · 01-14-2003, 05:57 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Sim Rat
People can quote ESPN or ridiculous "park factors" all they want. If you study Barry Bonds' swing and his hitting tendencies, you know that he is almost a dead pull hitter because of his bat speed. So, gee, that short porch in right field sure comes in handy at PacBell. What does a deep power alley in right center matter when you can consistently yank the ball straight down the line or in dead right field for home runs? PacBell park is built for Barry Bonds, period.

Those other left handed hitters who struggle at PacBell don't have his bat speed. So THEY are the ones who have a tough time with that right center field power alley. THEY are the ones whose production has dipped. But Bonds just lines the damn ball to dead right or down the line and he rockets it out of the park. And, hence his production spiked upward as soon as he started hitting at PacBell.

That's brilliant Simrat; I pointed out facts to you, and you come back with ... nothing.. To venture a guess, Id say you think all these statistics are newfangled things and that "veteran experience" and "team chemistry" are all that matter. Mr Syd thrift/Allan Baird...

Have you ever actually watched games at PacBell ? Bonds does hit a few to short right field, but a lot of them go to the power allies, to say nothing of left.

lynchjm24 · 01-14-2003, 06:04 PM

I guess my I didn't explain my point.

It might not be advantagous for the AI to avoid HR hitters in 'pitcher's parks'.

It might make power hitters even more valuable - as pitchers that can pitch well in the stadium are easier to find. The Mets come to mind.

CoachL · 01-14-2003, 06:04 PM

I'm not much of a Bonds supporter, but do live in Central California and get to see a lot of his games. He does hit a lot of home runs down the right field line, but I have seen him hit them to all parts of the park, even that deepest part in right center.

lynchjm24 · 01-14-2003, 06:07 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Sim Rat
PacBell park is built for Barry Bonds, period.

I highly doubt that the dimensions are PacBell park were chosen to fit the abilties of a hitter in his 30's in the free agent era.
When they designed the park, they really would not have known:
A. Bonds' potential to hit into his late 30's the way he has.
B. That he would even be on the team

Sim Rat · 01-14-2003, 09:08 PM

No one has said that Barry Bonds does not hit home runs to other parts of the field. But the fact is that he is primarily a pull hitter who gets most of his home runs in right field.

As for me coming back with "nothing" in the face of "facts," what could be more factual than sitting down and actually watching Bonds hit and tracking where his home runs are hit?

And as for PacBell not being designed with Bonds in mind, keep in mind that fence dimensions can always be changed, right up until a park is under construction. Now, I don't know the full details of every decision that was made in the planning process, but I find it hard to believe that it's pure coincidence that the park was built to favor left handed hitters down the right field line, when the team that would eventually play in the park just happens to have a pull hitting left handed hitter as its star player.

Did you ever think that they might have built the park that way to try to make sure that Bonds chooses to stay there? What better way to intice someone to stay than to build a short porch in right field so he can inflate his home run numbers, get more pubilicity, and earn more bonuses?

holyroller · 01-14-2003, 09:17 PM

Last three years total for Barry Bonds...

Home: 81
Road: 87

TwinsFan · 01-14-2003, 10:31 PM

This whole business of tailoring your team to the ballpark is so overated. The only exception is that speed is more important in a pitchers park. A good team will win anywhere.

Crapshoot · 01-14-2003, 11:50 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by holyroller
Last three years total for Barry Bonds...

Home: 81
Road: 87

holyroller, why let the facts get in the way of a good story; Pac Bell must obviously be a great park for Bonds; the stats proving
it to be the worst park for lefties in baseball are probably just some numbers mumbo-jumbo...

Sim Rat · 01-15-2003, 03:06 AM

Aadik, how many of the other lefties in the National League have Barry Bonds' bat speed?????

Please answer that question.

Who cares how lefties in general hit in that park when they don't have even remotely the same bat speed? They're not as prone to pull that bull to the short porch as Bonds is.

But hey, run your numbers all you want. The real data I want to see is what pops up once Barry Bonds submits a urine sample AND furher hard-core testing is done to determine if he's also taking substances to mask what he's already taking!

PacBell or no PacBell, he is still a 'roid freak in my book. And until he sacks up and submits himself to the tests, no one can really defend him on that charge. But hey, I'm sure he doesn't take anything. No one in baseball takes anything, and all that stuff that people like Jose Canseco are talking about is just nonsense.

Crapshoot · 01-15-2003, 03:15 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Sim Rat

PacBell or no PacBell, he is still a 'roid freak in my book. And until he sacks up and submits himself to the tests, no one can really defend him on that charge. But hey, I'm sure he doesn't take anything. No one in baseball takes anything, and all that stuff that people like Jose Canseco are talking about is just nonsense.

This is priceless; he has to prove his innocence to you with no regards to his private life? Consider the absurdity of this statement. If some random jackass on the street stops and asks you to take a drug test because it will make him feel better about walking next to you, will you agree ?
Understand this; he has the same basic rights as you; being a baseball player does not make him beholdent to the would be "fans" like yourself.

01-13-2003, 07:30 PM	#1
MannyTrillo All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 664	AI considering park factors? I would have never expected that the AI actually considers its home park factors in evaluating players, but... I'm running a solo fictional league in which one league has all park factors around 85, and the other around 105. I'm using talents only, and have played 2.5 seasons. I looked at where players with "Brilliant" talent in hitting homers have ended up, and found that the pitchers' park league has only 7 of them, while the hitters' park league has 23. This might be a coincidence, but it doesn't look like it... if the AI does in fact consider its own park factors, that's an awfully cool detail to the game. __________________ Poster emeritus "Not butchery, dining!!" obt sk cmh ct President, A-1 Aces OT Posting Club Click here to join

01-14-2003, 12:24 AM	#3
MannyTrillo All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 664	It's a matter of opinion I suppose, but I would say exactly the opposite. Wouldn't a guy who hits 30 HR in a pitchers' park likely hit a lot more warning track flies that would be homers somewhere else than a guy who hits 10 HR playing in the same park? If so, you're wasting home runs, and would be better off trading the 30 HR guy for someone equally as good whose strengths lie elsewhere. Sure, runs are more important in a bigger park- but it's relatively easier to get them by means other than home runs. __________________ Poster emeritus "Not butchery, dining!!" obt sk cmh ct President, A-1 Aces OT Posting Club Click here to join

01-14-2003, 08:54 AM	#6
ctorg Global Moderator Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Queens, NY Posts: 9,848	I did a test a while back on how power hitters fare in pitchers parks. Whether it's the same in real baseball, I don't know, but in OOTP, power hitters severely underperform (their average drops along with their homers) in parks where homers are harder to hit. It's not true 100% of the time, but in the vast majority of cases it is. Pitchers also last longer in games, so middle relief is less important. __________________ My music "When the trees blow back and forth, that's what makes the wind." - Steven Wright Fjord emena pancreas thorax fornicate marmalade morpheme proteolysis smaxa cabana offal srue vitriol grope hallelujah lentils

01-14-2003, 09:56 AM	#9
Crapshoot Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: watching: DArwin's missing link in action Posts: 3,112	ESPN uses a different calculation than baseballprospectus, but pray read the following blurb: "I remember taking one look at the plans at the beginning of 2000, seeing the 309-foot wall in right field, and immediately drafting left-handed slugger Barry Bonds and then J.T. Snow. Indeed, left-handed power hitters do have a short porch in right to shoot for - the distance to the right-field foul pole is the shortest in the bigs. But the fence slides sharply away to a very, very, VERY deep power alley in right center, where the distance from home plate is 420 feet. The result: Pac Bell suppressed left-handed home runs by 43% last year and 23% in its inaugural year, and played neutral for RHR. " - from ESPN Park Factors Run HR Avg L-Avg R-Avg L-HR R-HR H 2B 3B 2000 84 91 95 92 132 77 102 92 93 86 2001 82 91 92 84 98 57 67 91 104 139 What Bonds would do in a park like Coors or even Fenway is unimaginable.. __________________ Senior Senor Member of the OOTP Boards Pittsburgh Playmates- OTBL

01-14-2003, 09:17 PM	#16
holyroller Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: OTBL Forums Posts: 3,532	Last three years total for Barry Bonds... Home: 81 Road: 87 __________________ Back to work, but not drawing a paycheck. TonyJ et. al.'s alias “I confused it with the chicken’s neck,” Mocanu, who was admitted to the emergency hospital in Galati, was quoted as saying. “I cut it ... and the dog rushed and ate it.”

01-13-2003, 09:12 PM	#2
lynchjm24 All Star Reserve Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Hartford Posts: 978 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	Except that there would be no reason to avoid homerun hitters in a pitcher's park. Runs are even more valuable there. Exhibit A - Oakland.

01-14-2003, 07:50 AM	#5
Sim Rat Minors (Single A) Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 73	A. Steroids and andro B. Steroids and andro Beyond the above factors, you need to get up to speed with your information about the two ballparks in question. Busch Stadium is HARDLY a pitchers' ballpark anymore. In 1992, the left field and right field fences were lowered by 2.5 feet, and the fences were brought in all around. They were brought in anywhere from 8 to 12 feet, depending on the field location. Then in 1996, the foul lines were brought in yet another three feet. Now THAT, along with "supplements," is what explains Mark McGwire. And in case you didn't notice, PacBell Park was built for Barry Bonds. The park is built for his batting handedness and his hitting tendencies. And gee, Barry Bonds had hit 40 or more home runs in just three out of 14 seasons until the Giants moved to PacBell. Then he hit 49, 73, and 49. What a man! When those two 'roid freaks can hit even 50 home runs in a place like Comerica Park, then maybe I'd believe their power totals have some kind of legitmacy. But McGwire is now retired (gee, I wonder why he had so many injuries during his career ... could it be the high tendency among 'roid users to sustain injuries?) and Barry Bonds isn't headed for Detroit anytime soon.

01-14-2003, 09:19 AM	#7
Sim Rat Minors (Single A) Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 73	Yes, that is how it works in real life. Pedro Guerrero and Vinny Castilla are just two examples of how switching to a pitcher's park or leaving a hitter's park can have a dramatic impact on home runs. When Guerrero ended up in St. Louis (long before the fences were lowered and moved in), he could not hit home runs worth a damn anymore. He was hitting 25 to 35 in Los Angeles, and once get got to St. Louis, he went in the toilet. He couldn't hit 20 home runs to save his life and it marked the beginning of the end of his career. Vinny Castilla was slamming 40 home runs in Colorado, but since then he's become a mediocre player at best. In Tampa, Houston, and Atlanta, his home run production has dropped by over 50%.

01-14-2003, 04:28 PM	#10
Sim Rat Minors (Single A) Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 73	People can quote ESPN or ridiculous "park factors" all they want. If you study Barry Bonds' swing and his hitting tendencies, you know that he is almost a dead pull hitter because of his bat speed. So, gee, that short porch in right field sure comes in handy at PacBell. What does a deep power alley in right center matter when you can consistently yank the ball straight down the line or in dead right field for home runs? PacBell park is built for Barry Bonds, period. Those other left handed hitters who struggle at PacBell don't have his bat speed. So THEY are the ones who have a tough time with that right center field power alley. THEY are the ones whose production has dipped. But Bonds just lines the damn ball to dead right or down the line and he rockets it out of the park. And, hence his production spiked upward as soon as he started hitting at PacBell.

01-14-2003, 06:04 PM	#12
lynchjm24 All Star Reserve Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Hartford Posts: 978 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	I guess my I didn't explain my point. It might not be advantagous for the AI to avoid HR hitters in 'pitcher's parks'. It might make power hitters even more valuable - as pitchers that can pitch well in the stadium are easier to find. The Mets come to mind.

01-14-2003, 06:04 PM	#13
CoachL Minors (Double A) Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Hilmar, CA Posts: 124	I'm not much of a Bonds supporter, but do live in Central California and get to see a lot of his games. He does hit a lot of home runs down the right field line, but I have seen him hit them to all parts of the park, even that deepest part in right center.

01-14-2003, 09:08 PM	#15
Sim Rat Minors (Single A) Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 73	No one has said that Barry Bonds does not hit home runs to other parts of the field. But the fact is that he is primarily a pull hitter who gets most of his home runs in right field. As for me coming back with "nothing" in the face of "facts," what could be more factual than sitting down and actually watching Bonds hit and tracking where his home runs are hit? And as for PacBell not being designed with Bonds in mind, keep in mind that fence dimensions can always be changed, right up until a park is under construction. Now, I don't know the full details of every decision that was made in the planning process, but I find it hard to believe that it's pure coincidence that the park was built to favor left handed hitters down the right field line, when the team that would eventually play in the park just happens to have a pull hitting left handed hitter as its star player. Did you ever think that they might have built the park that way to try to make sure that Bonds chooses to stay there? What better way to intice someone to stay than to build a short porch in right field so he can inflate his home run numbers, get more pubilicity, and earn more bonuses?

01-14-2003, 10:31 PM	#17
TwinsFan Minors (Double A) Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Some planet in outer space Posts: 199	This whole business of tailoring your team to the ballpark is so overated. The only exception is that speed is more important in a pitchers park. A good team will win anywhere. __________________ OOTP 22 OOTP 21 OOTP 20

01-15-2003, 03:06 AM	#19
Sim Rat Minors (Single A) Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 73	Aadik, how many of the other lefties in the National League have Barry Bonds' bat speed????? Please answer that question. Who cares how lefties in general hit in that park when they don't have even remotely the same bat speed? They're not as prone to pull that bull to the short porch as Bonds is. But hey, run your numbers all you want. The real data I want to see is what pops up once Barry Bonds submits a urine sample AND furher hard-core testing is done to determine if he's also taking substances to mask what he's already taking! PacBell or no PacBell, he is still a 'roid freak in my book. And until he sacks up and submits himself to the tests, no one can really defend him on that charge. But hey, I'm sure he doesn't take anything. No one in baseball takes anything, and all that stuff that people like Jose Canseco are talking about is just nonsense.