2003 Rosters: Give Me Some Test Prospects - Page 3

holdfast44 · 01-08-2003, 09:48 PM

How about the Blue Jay's Orlando Hudson?

Total Nirvana · 01-08-2003, 10:53 PM

I have about 5 or 6 players I wanna look at as well. All from San Diego

1B Kevin Barker
3B Shane Hopper
OF Jason Bay
DH Jordan Pickens
1B Ryan Jones

GForce22 · 01-08-2003, 11:21 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Total Nirvana
I have about 5 or 6 players I wanna look at as well. All from San Diego

1B Kevin Barker
3B Shane Hopper
OF Jason Bay
DH Jordan Pickens
1B Ryan Jones

come now...I said just a couple from everybody. Not to be a jerk, but if one does 5, everyone else does 5, and it gets to be a bit much. I did the 3 you asked for before.

GH

Irrelevant Dude · 01-08-2003, 11:23 PM

How about getting some Cubs prospects in here...

1B Hee Seop Choi
3B David Kelton

GForce22 · 01-08-2003, 11:25 PM

ok, here are 3 more.

Code:

Grady Sizemore (CLE)
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	157	30	5	3	75	79	0.285
550	92	21	6	0	50	119	0.167

Victor Martinez (CLE)
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	178	50	1	24	63	61	0.324
550	139	38	0	20	54	96	0.253

Orlando Hudson (TOR)
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	169	35	6	16	54	67	0.307
550	138	30	3	11	38	84	0.251

That's all for tonight guys. Gonna try to do a few edits on the all-time set before bed. Keep it coming, and please, any feedback helps. It seems everyone thinks this looks good, but I want to make sure.

GH

GForce22 · 01-08-2003, 11:32 PM

ok Cubby, ya got me under the wire

Code:

Hee Choi (CHC)
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	148	29	1	35	89	124	0.269
550	130	23	2	25	89	162	0.236

Dave Kelton (CHC)
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	160	31	6	38	48	119	0.291
550	108	23	5	17	43	178	0.196

GH

Crapshoot · 01-09-2003, 01:43 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by GForce22
ok Cubby, ya got me under the wire

Code:

Hee Choi (CHC) AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG 550 148 29 1 35 89 124 0.269 550 130 23 2 25 89 162 0.236 Dave Kelton (CHC) AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG 550 160 31 6 38 48 119 0.291 550 108 23 5 17 43 178 0.196

GH

GeForce,
Fyi, Choi had an eqa of .324 in AAA last year, and thus an expected EQA of .275 in the majors; Given his further improvement, he might be a bit underrated.

Sim Rat · 01-09-2003, 02:23 AM

Syketo Anderson, Chicago Cubs

GForce22 · 01-09-2003, 07:58 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Aadik
GeForce,
Fyi, Choi had an eqa of .324 in AAA last year, and thus an expected EQA of .275 in the majors; Given his further improvement, he might be a bit underrated.

Choi's MLE for last year translated to 550 ABs

Code:

.262 Avg 25 HRs 3 3B 24 HR 91 BB 150 K

That being said, 262 is still significantly higher than .236. I don't like putting all that stock in one year. I think perhaps I can mix the MLE and my formula for currents somehow to come up with better current ratings. I'll look into this later.

GH

Sabathia · 01-09-2003, 10:13 PM

Grady Sizemore

From www.theprospectreport.com

He has a long, athletic frame, and most experts expect him to develop the kind of power that will produce 15-20 homers per year, despite the fact that he has just six career homers in 300 pro games.

I'm guessing the reason his projected homers are so low is because of his bad minor league stats, but like it says, scouts have him projected to hit 15-20 homers. Still, not a big deal. He's mainly known for his contact and speed.

GForce22 · 01-09-2003, 11:36 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Sabathia
Grady Sizemore

From www.theprospectreport.com

He has a long, athletic frame, and most experts expect him to develop the kind of power that will produce 15-20 homers per year, despite the fact that he has just six career homers in 300 pro games.

I'm guessing the reason his projected homers are so low is because of his bad minor league stats, but like it says, scouts have him projected to hit 15-20 homers. Still, not a big deal. He's mainly known for his contact and speed.

I've mentioned this before...I am VERY much a person who believes in what a guy HAS done, not what scouts say he MAY do. Scouts say lots of guys COULD develop something that they never do for whatever reason. Could Sizemore develop that power eventually? Absolutely. But until he shows any sign of it, there's no reason to believe he will.

GH

I Am The Game · 01-09-2003, 11:50 PM

I think things look great, although I think a few player the projected strike zone judgement is a bit off. Some players seem to strikeout too much or walk a little too less. Someone like Jose Reyes is supposed to have good strike zone judgement, I thought his walks were just a little low. With that said, I do think things look really good and you're on the right path. So I will ask my three. (Was only gonna ask for two, but one "non-prospect anymore" really has my curiosity, that's even if you have him)

C Kelly Shoppach, SS Hanley Ramirez, and OF Dernell "4 Years in Triple-A and Still Suck" Stenson from Boston.

GForce22 · 01-10-2003, 12:25 AM

I haven't done guys today because I'm in the midst of altering the sheets a bit more (and that got derailed a bit when I had to leave work to go to the hospital with my wife). I am factoring MLEs in a bit and also altering the calculations factoring age relative to level. Not huge changes, but things I think will help. I'm also trying to incorporate generic R/L splits to use as defaults if real splits aren't available, and OOTP "Talent" ratings on the sheet (basically word equivalents of the numerical potential ratings).

A note on Reyes though...this kid has not shown much strike zone judgment in his career. In 2001, he drew 18 walks in more than 400 at bats. Last year, he drew 46 walks between two levels in more than 560 at bats (his walk frequency fell when he was promoted). It's not so much that Reyes will strike out a ton when he reaches his prime, I don't think he will. But he hasn't shown a sign of walking much throughout his career. Remember this about strikeouts though...the average American Leaguer (to get rid of pitchers from the equation) struck out 18.3% of his at bats...that's 100 K's per 550 ABs. Reyes' 87 from the original equation put his potential above average in today's game.

I'll get your requests (as well as Syketo Anderson) done hopefully tomorrow if I get the sheets done. Hopefully these little tweaks will get it where I want it.

GH

I Am The Game · 01-10-2003, 12:46 AM

I will give you he has not shown the ability to walk a lot. But he doesn't strike out a whole lot. He only struck out 87 times between two levels, and he was young for his levels. I mean, immediatly yea he will struggle, but I think the potential for this kid is maybe 60:60 BB:K once he matures. He is still young for Double-A, nevermind Triple-A and the Majors. I understand the "what a player has done" theory because that is something I subscribe to. But a player's age against a league has to have some effect on it I believe. Thanks.

Redhead_Alaskan · 01-10-2003, 05:22 AM

I have to agree that the ratings look pretty good, GForce.

I'd like to see Michael Cuddyer and Justin Morneau.

CommishJoe · 01-10-2003, 08:44 AM

Excellent work GForce. I'm impressed!!

GForce22 · 01-10-2003, 11:15 AM

Thanks guys!

Bear with me a bit as I try to adjust the sheets. The age factor brought up with Reyes as far as being relative to level is something I have always incorporated but am adjusting in the sheets now. I don't expect his K's to drop considerably (I don't agree with the 60:60 thing (you're saying he'll strike out 40% below the league average...that's a stretch in my eyes, but that's a simple matter of opinion) but they could get lower. I'm trying to find a balance not only for appropriately factoring guys who are young for a level, but guys who are old for their level as well. Again, this is all stuff I have incorporated previously, I'm just continuing to adjust.
All the guys mentioned who I haven't done yet, I will try to get to, hopefully today. It depends how slow work is and how much time I get to spend on the sheets. Glad to see people are liking the results so far.

GH

Sim Rat · 01-10-2003, 03:10 PM

Just reiterating ... Syketo Anderson, once you publish a few more players.

GForce22 · 01-10-2003, 04:51 PM

ok, before I get to the guys I haven't done yet, let me run a few guys I already did through the newest sheets and see how they look.

Potential on 1st line (raw numbers), current ratings on 2nd line, Talent (potential in OOTP terms) on third line.

Code:

Prince Fielder
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	173	44	0	38	78	91	0.315
550	93	24	0	10	34	166	0.169
Talent     G	B	P	B	G	A

Hee Choi
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	152	30	2	37	93	117	0.276
550	136	24	2	25	90	156	0.247
Talent     A	A	F	B	G	F

Jose Reyes
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	183	36	14	7	45	68	0.333
550	126	25	12	3	25	99	0.229
Talent     G	B	B	P	F	G

Freddy Sanchez
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	167	35	2	4	49	76	0.304
550	149	34	2	4	52	93	0.271
Talent     G	B	F	P	A	A

Compare those with their old ratings below.

Code:

Prince Fielder (MIL)
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	185	41	0	41	88	92	0.336
550	69	14	0	12	44	171	0.125

Hee Choi (CHC)
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	148	29	1	35	89	124	0.269
550	130	23	2	25	89	162	0.236

Jose Reyes (NYM)
AB          H          2B         3B          HR          BB         SO          AVG
550	168	30	12	6	39	87         0.305
550	126	23	9	5	29	109       0.229

Freddy Sanchez (BOS)
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	184	40	3	5	43	151	0.335
550	135	31	2	4	49	100	0.245

I wanted to accomplish a few things with my revisions.
a) I wanted to incorporate the MLEs as a factor for current ratings, which I have now done.
b) I wanted to better account for age respective to level
c) I wanted to limit the heights of a guy who tore up the low-level minors in his only year. I don't want every 2002 draft pick who put up some nice numbers in rookie ball being rated as a superstud. There's something to be said for having to prove a little something.

Prince Fielder: His rookie performance was not just good, it was outstanding. He's young, which helps his numbers too to offset the low-level only penalty. His numbers get tamed a bit, mostly batting average. His current ratings are low, but that's fine. With his talents as strong as they are, he should progress quickly.

Hee Choi: Factoring MLE helped boost his currents a bit. Factoring age gave him a bit of a potential boost across the board. His overall ratings go down a bit because he played hurt in 2001 and his numbers suffered (VERY hard to program into formulas, and I'm of the mind that if you're out there playing, you're playing, no excuses...lots of guys play through injuries). I think his numbers look good.

Jose Reyes: The age factor helped him a bit. As I said, I had factored age previously, but it needed adjusting. I had to play with the variables for walks and strikeouts across the board before I saw something I liked. Reyes still doesn't walk much but his K's do come down a bit. I need to adjust the variable for triples though. Minor, but he's not doing 12 triples at this point.

Freddy Sanchez: This one bothered me the more I looked at it. Sanchez may hit for average, but giving him .335 potential bothered me. He's been old for his level, so his numbers needed to be tempered a bit. He's older, so he's closer to his potential than a average aged AA player. So his potential came down but his current ratings are closer to his potentials.

Let me know what you think. I think the adjustments are solid. But if you see further revisions I'm open to hear them. But I think that, if this isn't there yet, it's very close.

I'll run the new guys through in a bit.

GH

GForce22 · 01-10-2003, 05:45 PM

Here are 4 more with the new sheets.

Code:

Keto Anderson (CHC)
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	172	21	8	8	17	62	0.313
550	104	14	10	2	12	83	0.189
Talent     G	F	G	F	P	G

Kelly Shoppach (BOS)
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	153	41	1	23	62	118	0.278
550	97	30	1	8	51	201	0.176
Talent     A	B	P	A	A	F

Hanley Ramirez (BOS)
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	179	41	3	39	51	72	0.325
550	98	19	6	10	28	74	0.178
Talent     G	B	F	B	A	G

Dernell Stenson (BOS)
AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG
550	146	27	1	25	59	132	0.265
550	121	26	1	11	48	161	0.22
Talent     A	A	P	G	A	F

I'll try to do Morneau and Cuddyer before I go.

GH

01-08-2003, 10:53 PM	#42
Total Nirvana All Star Reserve Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: San Diego, California Posts: 750	I have about 5 or 6 players I wanna look at as well. All from San Diego 1B Kevin Barker 3B Shane Hopper OF Jason Bay DH Jordan Pickens 1B Ryan Jones __________________ Total Hockey Commissioner Your Off-Topic Nightmare. Free Agent OT Player - Plays 1B/3B/OF, hits for power on all fields, great fielder, can hit .330 a season!

01-08-2003, 11:25 PM	#45
GForce22 Banned Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Long Island, NY Posts: 2,654	ok, here are 3 more. Code: Grady Sizemore (CLE) AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG 550 157 30 5 3 75 79 0.285 550 92 21 6 0 50 119 0.167 Victor Martinez (CLE) AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG 550 178 50 1 24 63 61 0.324 550 139 38 0 20 54 96 0.253 Orlando Hudson (TOR) AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG 550 169 35 6 16 54 67 0.307 550 138 30 3 11 38 84 0.251 That's all for tonight guys. Gonna try to do a few edits on the all-time set before bed. Keep it coming, and please, any feedback helps. It seems everyone thinks this looks good, but I want to make sure. GH

01-09-2003, 10:13 PM	#50
Sabathia Minors (Single A) Join Date: May 2002 Location: Chapel Hill, NC Posts: 60	Grady Sizemore From www.theprospectreport.com He has a long, athletic frame, and most experts expect him to develop the kind of power that will produce 15-20 homers per year, despite the fact that he has just six career homers in 300 pro games. I'm guessing the reason his projected homers are so low is because of his bad minor league stats, but like it says, scouts have him projected to hit 15-20 homers. Still, not a big deal. He's mainly known for his contact and speed. __________________ Contract the Yankees! Leagues Cleveland Indians in the HBL Cincinnati Reds in the DBLC Seattle Mariners in the TLB FOB2: Coming Soon! Major League Boneheads: C Mark Szymanski

01-10-2003, 05:22 AM	#55
Redhead_Alaskan Minors (Triple A) Join Date: May 2002 Posts: 224	I have to agree that the ratings look pretty good, GForce. I'd like to see Michael Cuddyer and Justin Morneau. __________________ "Never conform"-Woody Mesa

01-10-2003, 08:44 AM	#56
CommishJoe Global Moderator Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Minneapolis, MN Posts: 5,238	Excellent work GForce. I'm impressed!! __________________ Joe Success isn’t owned. It’s leased. And rent is due every day.

01-08-2003, 09:48 PM	#41
holdfast44 Bat Boy Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: London, Ontario Posts: 7	How about the Blue Jay's Orlando Hudson?

01-08-2003, 11:23 PM	#44
Irrelevant Dude Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Bourbonnais, IL Posts: 279	How about getting some Cubs prospects in here... 1B Hee Seop Choi 3B David Kelton

01-08-2003, 11:32 PM	#46
GForce22 Banned Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Long Island, NY Posts: 2,654	ok Cubby, ya got me under the wire Code: Hee Choi (CHC) AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG 550 148 29 1 35 89 124 0.269 550 130 23 2 25 89 162 0.236 Dave Kelton (CHC) AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG 550 160 31 6 38 48 119 0.291 550 108 23 5 17 43 178 0.196 GH

01-09-2003, 02:23 AM	#48
Sim Rat Minors (Single A) Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 73	Syketo Anderson, Chicago Cubs

01-09-2003, 11:50 PM	#52
I Am The Game All Star Reserve Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Red Sox Nation Posts: 691	I think things look great, although I think a few player the projected strike zone judgement is a bit off. Some players seem to strikeout too much or walk a little too less. Someone like Jose Reyes is supposed to have good strike zone judgement, I thought his walks were just a little low. With that said, I do think things look really good and you're on the right path. So I will ask my three. (Was only gonna ask for two, but one "non-prospect anymore" really has my curiosity, that's even if you have him) C Kelly Shoppach, SS Hanley Ramirez, and OF Dernell "4 Years in Triple-A and Still Suck" Stenson from Boston.

01-10-2003, 12:25 AM	#53
GForce22 Banned Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Long Island, NY Posts: 2,654	I haven't done guys today because I'm in the midst of altering the sheets a bit more (and that got derailed a bit when I had to leave work to go to the hospital with my wife). I am factoring MLEs in a bit and also altering the calculations factoring age relative to level. Not huge changes, but things I think will help. I'm also trying to incorporate generic R/L splits to use as defaults if real splits aren't available, and OOTP "Talent" ratings on the sheet (basically word equivalents of the numerical potential ratings). A note on Reyes though...this kid has not shown much strike zone judgment in his career. In 2001, he drew 18 walks in more than 400 at bats. Last year, he drew 46 walks between two levels in more than 560 at bats (his walk frequency fell when he was promoted). It's not so much that Reyes will strike out a ton when he reaches his prime, I don't think he will. But he hasn't shown a sign of walking much throughout his career. Remember this about strikeouts though...the average American Leaguer (to get rid of pitchers from the equation) struck out 18.3% of his at bats...that's 100 K's per 550 ABs. Reyes' 87 from the original equation put his potential above average in today's game. I'll get your requests (as well as Syketo Anderson) done hopefully tomorrow if I get the sheets done. Hopefully these little tweaks will get it where I want it. GH

01-10-2003, 12:46 AM	#54
I Am The Game All Star Reserve Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Red Sox Nation Posts: 691	I will give you he has not shown the ability to walk a lot. But he doesn't strike out a whole lot. He only struck out 87 times between two levels, and he was young for his levels. I mean, immediatly yea he will struggle, but I think the potential for this kid is maybe 60:60 BB:K once he matures. He is still young for Double-A, nevermind Triple-A and the Majors. I understand the "what a player has done" theory because that is something I subscribe to. But a player's age against a league has to have some effect on it I believe. Thanks.

01-10-2003, 11:15 AM	#57
GForce22 Banned Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Long Island, NY Posts: 2,654	Thanks guys! Bear with me a bit as I try to adjust the sheets. The age factor brought up with Reyes as far as being relative to level is something I have always incorporated but am adjusting in the sheets now. I don't expect his K's to drop considerably (I don't agree with the 60:60 thing (you're saying he'll strike out 40% below the league average...that's a stretch in my eyes, but that's a simple matter of opinion) but they could get lower. I'm trying to find a balance not only for appropriately factoring guys who are young for a level, but guys who are old for their level as well. Again, this is all stuff I have incorporated previously, I'm just continuing to adjust. All the guys mentioned who I haven't done yet, I will try to get to, hopefully today. It depends how slow work is and how much time I get to spend on the sheets. Glad to see people are liking the results so far. GH

01-10-2003, 03:10 PM	#58
Sim Rat Minors (Single A) Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 73	Just reiterating ... Syketo Anderson, once you publish a few more players.

01-10-2003, 04:51 PM	#59
GForce22 Banned Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Long Island, NY Posts: 2,654	ok, before I get to the guys I haven't done yet, let me run a few guys I already did through the newest sheets and see how they look. Potential on 1st line (raw numbers), current ratings on 2nd line, Talent (potential in OOTP terms) on third line. Code: Prince Fielder AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG 550 173 44 0 38 78 91 0.315 550 93 24 0 10 34 166 0.169 Talent G B P B G A Hee Choi AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG 550 152 30 2 37 93 117 0.276 550 136 24 2 25 90 156 0.247 Talent A A F B G F Jose Reyes AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG 550 183 36 14 7 45 68 0.333 550 126 25 12 3 25 99 0.229 Talent G B B P F G Freddy Sanchez AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG 550 167 35 2 4 49 76 0.304 550 149 34 2 4 52 93 0.271 Talent G B F P A A Compare those with their old ratings below. Code: Prince Fielder (MIL) AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG 550 185 41 0 41 88 92 0.336 550 69 14 0 12 44 171 0.125 Hee Choi (CHC) AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG 550 148 29 1 35 89 124 0.269 550 130 23 2 25 89 162 0.236 Jose Reyes (NYM) AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG 550 168 30 12 6 39 87 0.305 550 126 23 9 5 29 109 0.229 Freddy Sanchez (BOS) AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG 550 184 40 3 5 43 151 0.335 550 135 31 2 4 49 100 0.245 I wanted to accomplish a few things with my revisions. a) I wanted to incorporate the MLEs as a factor for current ratings, which I have now done. b) I wanted to better account for age respective to level c) I wanted to limit the heights of a guy who tore up the low-level minors in his only year. I don't want every 2002 draft pick who put up some nice numbers in rookie ball being rated as a superstud. There's something to be said for having to prove a little something. Prince Fielder: His rookie performance was not just good, it was outstanding. He's young, which helps his numbers too to offset the low-level only penalty. His numbers get tamed a bit, mostly batting average. His current ratings are low, but that's fine. With his talents as strong as they are, he should progress quickly. Hee Choi: Factoring MLE helped boost his currents a bit. Factoring age gave him a bit of a potential boost across the board. His overall ratings go down a bit because he played hurt in 2001 and his numbers suffered (VERY hard to program into formulas, and I'm of the mind that if you're out there playing, you're playing, no excuses...lots of guys play through injuries). I think his numbers look good. Jose Reyes: The age factor helped him a bit. As I said, I had factored age previously, but it needed adjusting. I had to play with the variables for walks and strikeouts across the board before I saw something I liked. Reyes still doesn't walk much but his K's do come down a bit. I need to adjust the variable for triples though. Minor, but he's not doing 12 triples at this point. Freddy Sanchez: This one bothered me the more I looked at it. Sanchez may hit for average, but giving him .335 potential bothered me. He's been old for his level, so his numbers needed to be tempered a bit. He's older, so he's closer to his potential than a average aged AA player. So his potential came down but his current ratings are closer to his potentials. Let me know what you think. I think the adjustments are solid. But if you see further revisions I'm open to hear them. But I think that, if this isn't there yet, it's very close. I'll run the new guys through in a bit. GH