Yet Another OOTP6 Dynasty, Year 2: One Flew Over the Pale Hose

[cknox0723]

short version of reply #700 - I still don't understand what the hell this team is doing in first place.

[canadiancreed]

the Toronto GM after reading that, should be drawn and quartered for trading Wells for a f'in scrub!

[Jestor]

That sound you just heard was Hell freezing over.

[orin2]

Just because Toronto is smoking the crack is no reason to feel bad about that trade. I would try to rob them for Roy if possible as well and I ain't talking about the kilt wearing one either.

[BadluckinOOTP]

I would like to nominate post #700 as the greatest post in OOTP Dynasty Forums history.

That's all.

P.S.
Hi Craig!

[Vris]

Originally Posted by BadluckinOOTP

I would like to nominate post #700 as the greatest post in OOTP Dynasty Forums history.

That's all.

P.S.
Hi Craig!

Good nomination, but I think there is a post from his original thread (or it could be this one) that tops it on all accounts.

Wells is a good acquisition; the offense thanks you (what are his numbers from the past couple years? Is he a significant upgrade over the Clutch God?)

[Y0DA55]

Is Vernon any good in this universe? (I mean, besides batting 4th in what is clearly a powerhouse Pale Hose lineup.

[The Funk]

Great rundown, I always like the 'how have my deals worked out?' retrospectives. Good deal too. Your time is coming. Pie is nice.

[cknox0723]

Vernon Wells:
2004 vs. LHP: 40 H in 151 AB (.265 avg)/.345 obp/.404 slg
2004 vs. RHP: 124-415 (.299)/.337/.547
2005 vs. LHP: 46-131 (.351)/.426/.595
2005 vs. RHP: 137-455 (.301)/.355/.541
2006 vs. LHP: 41-117 (.350)/.389/.667
2006 vs. RHP: 116-478 (.243)/.287/.408

This year Wells has upped the average versus right-handed pitchers some 40 points from last year's mark, with his OBP rising at a similar rate and the slugging up about 80 points. He has zero home runs against left-handed pitchers, but a .315 average is a huge boon for our club which has won just 11 of 23 games started by southpaws. With V-Dub's contract expiring at season's end, and keeping in mind his key error in the top of the tenth in last night's loss to Anaheim, the reasons for the trade become justifiable, particularly when you consider that Toronto is not a big market and they face having to re-sign ace pitcher Roy Halladay as well. When considering which two-time All-Star to re-sign, the pitcher with the career record of 120-57 who is good for 250 innings a year becomes much more important than the center fielder who has had his share of noticeable struggles. Dream up a moody malcontent a la "Jurassic Carl" Everett, consider Toronto's wealth of cheap outfield talent (Rios, Restovich, Nix, and now the "Clutch God") and ponder this streaky center fielder who clubbed eight long balls in April (four in the first four games of the season) and three in the two-plus months since. The trade may still not make perfect sense, as Jeremy Reed's best attributes are that he is reasonably young and hit a couple of home runs way back when, and Armando Deltoro really ain't much of a pitching prospect, since he doesn't have anything you could call an out pitch. But at least it's defensible.

However, it looks a wee bit worse when Wells makes his smashing debut in Pale Hose in the first of a three-game home set with Tampa. It is by the oddest of coincidences that our man Jon Garland is opposed by Aaron Harang, the same man he bested twice earlier this season. Tampa's 1-9 right-hander (and that is not his height) hasn't had much to write home about this year, but losing thrice to the same pitcher is awfully difficult, and as it would be our batters find themselves mystified by the same assortment of junk that they slobberknockered on June 18th and just a few days earlier on July 5th. We fall in a 2-0 deficit in the top of the fourth when Garland walks a couple of guys and then gives up solid singles to a couple of weak hitters (and, oddly, former Detroit Tigers) in backup catcher Max St. Pierre and infielder Ramon Santiago. In the bottom half, consecutive singles by that dynamic middle infield duo, Ramon Vazquez and Adam Kennedy, give us a hell of a start to the frame. Magglio Ordonez's hard bouncer to the right side is halted by a nice play by big Josh Phelps, but the only out he can get is at first, so we have men at second and third for the new center fielder on the block, who popped out to first base in his first at-bat. Sadly, Vernon Wells can't even do that in this go-round, whiffing on a 1-2 slider in the dirt, and then Eric Munson follows suit to leave us empty-handed.

Happily, we get a do-over in the sixth inning, perhaps foretold by pinch-hitter Enrique Wilson's leadoff out -- a lined shot back at Harang, he of the 54 walks and 57 strikeouts this season. "Pokey" singles, "Gumby" singles, just as in the fourth, and Magglio Ordonez draws a free pass this time around. See?

|  ADMIT ONE  |
|             |
|    FREE     |
|             |
|     TO      |
|  1ST BASE   |
|	      |
|        MO 06|

With one swing of the bat, Vernon Wells follows with some grand statement to the baseball world, clubbing a double off the right field fence that clears the bases and gives us a lead that we don't relinquish. It's another pinnacle in a season full of them, but we climb even higher in the next few days, first watching Michael "" Nannini give up one run on two hits and throw not one but two wild pitches in the first inning -- and then display how little one inning really matters in the scheme of things, or perhaps just how bad Tampa's lineup really is when .300 hitting 3B Andy Phillips is taking the day off along with the man who is seventh in the AL in home runs, Josh Phelps. One run, two hits, and two wild pitches in one inning, and zero runs, zero hits, zero walks, and zero wild pitches for the duration thereafter. Twenty-four outs in twenty-four batters, as I keep expecting to pinch-hit for Nannini but never really find a reason to. This is a guy who was pitching triple-A a few months ago, a guy with six career wins, but because of his brilliance in inning two and on and because Magglio Ordonez follows Frank Catalanotto's one-out first-inning walk with an absolute moonshot to center field, Michael Nannini has a record of 4-2. The game could have gotten messy in the first inning, as it was one-nothing after the ribbie single by center fielder Mark Kotsay and he was standing on second after Nannini's second wild pitch of the frame, but in my mind Jamison Bryan, whomever he may be, went out to the mound and imparted some wisdom on our 26 year old right-hander. "We are in first place no matter how you pitch," I imagine he might have said, not knowing how true that was, not knowing that Cleveland, already trailing our club -- the Pale Hose! -- by 2.5, would lose a tight one to the Yankees 3-2 due to even more disastrous bullpen pitching, and then lose again the next day -- seven in a row! -- when young "Dirk" Dittler would struggle after a long second-inning rain delay, while the Empire's solid veteran starter, Kelvim Escobar, would hang long enough to pick up his eighth win, aided by a spectacular three innings of relief from swingman Eddy Candelario. There was no way to know during that first inning, one that looked like disaster, that our ace Mark Buehrle would punctuate an incredible first half of the season with six brilliant innings, combining with PJ Bevis and Mike Gallo on a three-hit, eight strikeout shutout. The shutout would have been a tie if the rules allowed it and if we hadn't scored any runs, but we got three, mostly due to spectacular shortstop Ramon Vazquez getting on base the first four times he came to the plate, only making an out to end the eighth, when the game was already three-nothing and all but over.

Vazquez, Gallo, Buehrle, Nannini, Catalanotto, Ordonez, Kennedy, Wells. It is only by a bizarre confluence of circumstance that those guys and seventeen or twenty others are all working together, chasing this impossible dream that one would never have guessed this seemingly lousy ballclub would ever realize. But here we are, at the All-Star Break, staring at these standings:

Chicago White Sox......51-39 (.567), -- GB, W7
Cleveland Indians......47-44 (.516), 4.5 GB, L7
Minnesota Twins........45-44 (.506), 5.5 GB, W1
Kansas City Royals.....43-47 (.478), 8 GB, L1
Detroit Tigers.........42-47 (.472), 8.5 GB, L1

Where do we go from here? I have no idea, since I'm hardly sure how we even got to first place in the first place. But it's going to be a hell of a lot of fun finding out.

[Vris]

I know it's only 90 games and I know Cleveland won the WS in the past season...but it must be refreshing to see that every time you open up the game.

[Jestor]

4.5 game LEAD?!

This is as shocking as me updating a dynasty regularly these days.

[The Funk]

What the hell is happening? 4.5 game lead, 7 game winning streak, you signed a decent player. Why do I get the feeling that somewhere Satan is off buying himself a brand-new pair of skis?

[cknox0723]

Originally Posted by The Funk

Why do I get the feeling that somewhere Satan is off buying himself a brand-new pair of skis?

Gee, I have no idea. But there is one constant, and that is that the Pale Hose thread will always have long replies.

And here is another one of those!

[The Funk]

No there isn't.

[cknox0723]

I have always been curious as to why the All-Star break takes place at the fifty-five percent mark of each season, and a little digging gave me one of those little trivial nuggets that can be handy to throw down, so I thought I'd share. Thanks to this link, I found that the first All-Star game was initiated to coincide with Chicago's Century of Progress Exposition. Funny that nearly a century has passed in this universe since one ballclub from Chicago has made any progress in winning le grande exposition.

In any case, thought I might give you a quick look into the universe in which I am immersed at this natural break in the season. It will be tough not to spend hours, though, so I will try to be brief.

The Mets, bless their $92 million hearts, have overcome the early-season struggles of three-fifths of their rotation with solid bullpen work, a deep and dynamic lineup, and the yeoman efforts of former Pale Hose fan favorite Dmitri Young (.331 avg/.404 obp/.484 slg, 26 2B) to sneak into first place, likely for good. This ballclub is not like the Yankees of recent vintage, paying serious bread for talent that is no better than what is already in the system, but it is worth noting that off-season pick-up Matthew LeCroy was as much an answer to their catching problems as Darren Baker was to pinch-running for SF in the 2002 World Series. 29 year old Rhode Islander Danny Wheeler has done a hell of a job in his first stint as a closer, saving 16 and winning 6 in 40.2 innings, and allowing but two runs per nine. Interestingly, his six wins are second on the club, behind the Triple-H starting trio of Hudson, Hernandez, and Heilman, all of whom have 7.

I still like the second New York club as a serious contender for the WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP, but they do still have a division to win. Atlanta is right in the thick of things, just three-plus back, and that ballclub is riding an offense that is third in the league in runs scored despite ranking 17th in batting average. The key to that is the combination of power and patience that thumpers Ryan Klesko (.263 avg), Chipper Jones (.251), Carlos Beltran (.224), and JD Drew (.220) all possess. To a man, they can swat the ball over or between the outfielders or they can work a walk. That's a hell of a lot better than carrying a sap like Juan "Out-Sucking Machine" Uribe or "Hacktastic Julio" Lugo or Joe "Beet Soup" Borchard in the everyday lineup. Having three solid contributors at normally light offensive spots helps quite a bit, too, and the Braves are enjoying a career year from backstop John Estrada (.276/.336/.424, which goes to show how the 31 year old's career has transpired in this universe) to go along with an outstanding sophomore campaign from last year's top rookie, 2B Jake Gautreau (.329/.399/.476) and the typical acrobatic work from shortstop Raffy Furcal (36 steals, a .280 average), whose contract expires at the end of next season.

I would also be remiss to leave out the success of one-time Pale Hose minor leaguer Chin-Feng Chen, who was sent over to the National League back in early June in a seemingly minor deal for Jack Wilson, ostensibly our backup shortstop. "c.f. chen" singled in a pinch-hit appearance in his first at-bat with the Braves and of the season, and got a start against San Francisco a few days later and went 0-4. He also started in two of the Braves' last three games before this here All-Star break and contributed mightily to two heavy losses to the other Chicago team, going oh-fer-three and 0-4. Betwixt those two periods was a display of hitting that the 29 year old journeyman outfielder could spend a career trying to re-create. From June 15 to July 3, Chen batted at an incredible .414 rate, twelve for twenty-nine, swatting five home runs and slugging over .700. On June 22, with the ballclub having lost three of four, he blasted a two-run bomb off of countryman Hong-Chih Kuo in the sixth to put the Braves ahead of Los Angeles for good, and Chen single-handedly beat the Padres three days later, going 3-3 with a home run, two runs scored and two batted in. All this doesn't mean trading him for a good-field, no-hit shortstop in Jack Wilson was a bad idea; those thirty-five or so plate appearances don't mean anything, really. I simply thought that not mentioning them would be unjust, in a way.

The same cannot be said for the Braves' pitching staff, which I have conveniently ignored up to this point. All the pre-season negatives have come to pass and then some, as ace starter Carlos Zambrano will be making just his thirteenth start of the season when the real games kick in again, having spent plenty of time on the DL with "leg imbalance" or "tomahawk chop syndrome" or what have you. 26 year old control artist Brett Evert (8-6, 3.51) has carried the torch well enough in his absence, and a consortium of mostly unappreciated journeymen like Josh Fogg (7-6, 3.71, this is from a six-year veteran so appreciated by smart baseball men that he is still making just $600K) and Lance Cormier (6-1, 4.37, and here is a man with a 6-16 record entering the year) have turned in far more quality starts than anyone could reasonably expect. And 36 year old right-hander Dan Miceli has done a fine job converting most of those quality starts into wins, nearly doubling his career save total in the process. The trouble has been the handling of the torch in between, with undistinguished 33 year old Will Cunnane far and away the club's most reliable middleman.

Yet Atlanta is still just three-and-a-half back, while Montreal has faded after a nice early-season started and Philadelphia has disappointingly never gotten anywhere at all. Why? Well, while the Braves have gotten mostly decent starts from unknowns, the Phils have seen veteran name pitcher (Jon Leiber) after veteran name pitcher (Darren Dreifort) after veteran name pitcher (Mike Hampton) get whiplash from turning and watching that little white pill fly. Throw in the combined 2-7 mark from greenhorns Tim Stogner and Cole Hamels and that's an awful lot of losses that ace right-hander Vinny Padilla can't make up for on his own, and not even with the surprising ten-win contribution from 26 year old Brett Myers, whose 4.01 ERA this year represents his best major league work to date. Interestingly, the club is tenth in runs scored despite these facts:

-16th in the league in batting average at .253, thanks to the "contributions" of SS Rollins at an atrocious .210 (.188 vs RHP) and LF Burrell (.212)
-tied for twenty-seventh in home runs, with Burrell's 16 far and away the team lead, as Bob Abreu (10) is the only other player with a double-digit home run total
-speaking of the right fielder, just as he was really heating up in June, Abreu was disabled with an inflamed hip muscle, and the at-bat he has in the first inning on July 16 in Arizona will be his first since June 27. The multi-talented outfielder was enjoying his best year, largely in part to a .360/.455/.558 June line that raised his overall average to .295, his highest mark in four years. He was a target in trade talks, but the Phils value him even more highly than I do.

I might also mention that they are no real base stealing threats in the Philly lineup, either, save for Jimmy Rollins who is on base about as much as the title character in that TV show set in the City of Brotherly Love. (You know the one!) There are a few .300 hitters sprinkled about the lineup, with journeyman backstop Josh Paul the most surprising and consistent center fielder Marlon Byrd his polar opposite, but that doesn't explain why the club has scored even more than New Jersey's own Quincy Douby, nor really does the team's fourth-place ranking in walks. The BB is nice, but ain't goin' do much good when you don't hit the ball, right? The answer is that the club thumps a whole load of two-baggers, with second baseman Chase Utley's 21 leading the way, and all of the other everyday players in double digits save for fat, old, slow first baseman Jim Thome. The triple may be the most exciting play in baseball, but if Adam Kennedy's scintillating April didn't allow you to appreciate the two-bagger, perhaps the otherwise moribund Philadelphia offense will. Or not; they're still in last, anyway.

However, they may crawl out of their hole if Montreal gets hit any harder with the SARS virus. Bad joke, I know (though I am mixing Canadian cities), but how else to explain the six pitchers currently accruing time on the disabled list? And even the healthy are not without unsightly warts and blemishes. Take 25 year old Luke Lockwood, a strapping young lefty with a rather indistinguishable minor league line and half-decent three-start cup of coffee last season; he's seen it all enveloped in an 11-start nuclear mushroom this year, with more walks than strikeouts, 67 hits in 50 innings, and a fine, dandy 7.33 ERA, only three-and-a-half runs above league-average. And the parade of unfortunate souls continues with 27 year old right-hander Seung "Sung" Song, who has carved out a nice niche as a pitching pinata, allowing any old left-handed batter to let 'er rip and watch the little foil-wrapped candies pop out. Hell, you could probably go deep on this guy, and you're reading the incoherent ramblings of some guy on a baseball text sim message board. Left-handers are batting .472/.525/.764 against him this season in 72 at-bats. Sample size and all that, but four-freakin'-72! The opposite handers could go up there sans bat, and I bet his record would still be 1-6.

Not all has gone awry for Montreal, who has had the reverse curve of our season, starting out fast and then slowly spiraling downward. 26 year old right-hander Darrell Rasnar has emerged from obscurity to lead the team in wins with eight, and if young ace Frankie Butto ever returns from injury, you are looking at a half-decent rotation when you mix in efficient, crafty veteran Ryan Drese (7-4, 2.56). The lineup also has a solid nucleus, as 28 year old first baseman Hee Seop Choi has finally lived up to the minor league billings in his first real shot at the bigs (.292/.424/.545 in 154 AB), creating a nice middle-of-the-order punch with similarly talented outfielder Brad Wilkerson (.280/.372/.468) and free-swinging, position-drifting 25 year old Vic Diaz (.305/.327/.481). But this small-market ballclub (26th in payroll) just doesn't have the resources that others do, and even unexpected surprises like the emergence of Rasnar and the mild renaissance of 35 year old offseason pick-up Jorge Posada (.282/.384/.377 vs. .242/.333/.366 last year) can't cover up other deficiencies, like the fact that the club has started seven different third basemen this season (and not because of injuries) and that the bullpen has one pitcher with more than 10 innings and an ERA below the league average of 3.96. And as luck would have it, that man, superb Mexican right-hander Luis Ayala, is currently on the DL along with apparently all other comers in the organization. With what was diagnosed a few weeks ago as a torn tricep muscle, he'll likely be there a while.

Montreal will suffer the same fate in the standings if their minor league system is any indication, and since they can't outspend even the Pale Hose, the fact that they have just one prospect to speak of means, as the French say, je ne voudrais pas etre a sa place. (Feel free to pretend the accents are there if it makes it sound a little less like Ted Nugent to you) Even worse is that right-hander David Gibbs looks like a supernova, with a 3-0 record and sparkling 0.28 ERA in four double-A starts...yet he's just nineteen years old, with plenty of time to blow out his arm three times, and even worse, his A-ball lines from the last year-plus suggest that his idea of the strike zone is just rudimentary. If he flops, same as 2005 1st rounder Don Larios did (granted, he is still 24, but his AA record was 6-19 last year!) and same as this year's #1 pick, Frank Corbett is likely to do...(OK, that is jumping the gun, as the third base prospect is all of 19 years old, with 118 professional at-bats. But he's hitting .153!!)...with an organization with that kind of track record, you can't say anything but "Mon dieu, avoir pitie au Montreal."

[cknox0723]

Originally Posted by ifspuds

It's been far too long since we've had a good Yorviting!

Yorvit!

Today was quite a long day, but satisfying in a multitude of ways. Yet as I drove back to the same place I always have, I realized that the only thing missing from the familiar roads I was driving on and not-so-familiar personal territories I was expanding was a good Yorviting, if you will.

I am facing the prospect of having to purchase both a new computer and a new (used) car at this point in time, so that is the brick wall standing in the way of getting this thread to a thousand posts, at this time. But I am also held back a bit because I see this year of the Pale Hose as like a wall covered in wet paint. The sign says "do not touch", yet I find myself reaching, reaching, reaching...and then, as I do so often, pulling back just before contact, afraid I will never be able to wash the paint off. I don't know quite where to go with a team that has had such a strange run to the top. I'm not sure I even truly know whether I want to see the Pale Hose hold onto the small edge they've carved out, or whether I'd rather watch the inevitable collapse.

I will reach out and touch that wall soon enough, though, 'cause ain't much fun in just sitting back and watching paint dry.

[canadiancreed]

However, they may crawl out of their hole if Montreal gets hit any harder with the SARS virus. Bad joke, I know (though I am mixing Canadian cities), but how else to explain the six pitchers currently accruing time on the disabled list? And even the healthy are not without unsightly warts and blemishes. Take 25 year old Luke Lockwood, a strapping young lefty with a rather indistinguishable minor league line and half-decent three-start cup of coffee last season; he's seen it all enveloped in an 11-start nuclear mushroom this year, with more walks than strikeouts, 67 hits in 50 innings, and a fine, dandy 7.33 ERA, only three-and-a-half runs above league-average. And the parade of unfortunate souls continues with 27 year old right-hander Seung "Sung" Song, who has carved out a nice niche as a pitching pinata, allowing any old left-handed batter to let 'er rip and watch the little foil-wrapped candies pop out. Hell, you could probably go deep on this guy, and you're reading the incoherent ramblings of some guy on a baseball text sim message board. Left-handers are batting .472/.525/.764 against him this season in 72 at-bats. Sample size and all that, but four-freakin'-72! The opposite handers could go up there sans bat, and I bet his record would still be 1-6.

Not all has gone awry for Montreal, who has had the reverse curve of our season, starting out fast and then slowly spiraling downward. 26 year old right-hander Darrell Rasnar has emerged from obscurity to lead the team in wins with eight, and if young ace Frankie Butto ever returns from injury, you are looking at a half-decent rotation when you mix in efficient, crafty veteran Ryan Drese (7-4, 2.56). The lineup also has a solid nucleus, as 28 year old first baseman Hee Seop Choi has finally lived up to the minor league billings in his first real shot at the bigs (.292/.424/.545 in 154 AB), creating a nice middle-of-the-order punch with similarly talented outfielder Brad Wilkerson (.280/.372/.468) and free-swinging, position-drifting 25 year old Vic Diaz (.305/.327/.481). But this small-market ballclub (26th in payroll) just doesn't have the resources that others do, and even unexpected surprises like the emergence of Rasnar and the mild renaissance of 35 year old offseason pick-up Jorge Posada (.282/.384/.377 vs. .242/.333/.366 last year) can't cover up other deficiencies, like the fact that the club has started seven different third basemen this season (and not because of injuries) and that the bullpen has one pitcher with more than 10 innings and an ERA below the league average of 3.96. And as luck would have it, that man, superb Mexican right-hander Luis Ayala, is currently on the DL along with apparently all other comers in the organization. With what was diagnosed a few weeks ago as a torn tricep muscle, he'll likely be there a while.

Montreal will suffer the same fate in the standings if their minor league system is any indication, and since they can't outspend even the Pale Hose, the fact that they have just one prospect to speak of means, as the French say, je ne voudrais pas etre a sa place. (Feel free to pretend the accents are there if it makes it sound a little less like Ted Nugent to you) Even worse is that right-hander David Gibbs looks like a supernova, with a 3-0 record and sparkling 0.28 ERA in four double-A starts...yet he's just nineteen years old, with plenty of time to blow out his arm three times, and even worse, his A-ball lines from the last year-plus suggest that his idea of the strike zone is just rudimentary. If he flops, same as 2005 1st rounder Don Larios did (granted, he is still 24, but his AA record was 6-19 last year!) and same as this year's #1 pick, Frank Corbett is likely to do...(OK, that is jumping the gun, as the third base prospect is all of 19 years old, with 118 professional at-bats. But he's hitting .153!!)...with an organization with that kind of track record, you can't say anything but "Mon dieu, avoir pitie au Montreal."

But their is one spot where pity is not needed....

at least they still exist

[copper888]

Bump, I'm getting kind of worried, what's going on Knox?

[seth70liz76]

He posted in TS not too long ago (at least since his last Pal Hose Post). Something of this scope, this quality, necessitates some "off-time" every once and again.

[cknox0723]

Greetings! Salutations! I am glad to see this forum is still here.

But who the hell am I, you may be wondering...?

Originally Posted by seth70liz76

He posted in TS not too long ago (at least since his last Pal Hose Post). Something of this scope, this quality, necessitates some "off-time" every once and again.

Thanks Seth. Really the off-time has been due to the fact that I do not have regular access to the internet at the moment. (I am typing this from a library, to wit) However, there is a nice, shiny $441 computer waiting for me at the UPS center just a few towns away, and I will be picking it up tomorrow, barring catastrophe. I can't promise I will be on the 'net immediately but one can hope.

And this is not an update to say, "Oh, by the way, I have simmed ahead eight seasons from this point and won 11 World Series." I will admit, Opening Day starting anew a few weeks ago gave me the itch to play around with the Pale Hose a bit...but just a bit. No groundswelling news to report, no big trades or injuries or catastrophic collaspes...yet.

Here is one spot where worry is not needed...the Pale Hose still live on. Soon enough, they will live on in your computer as well, at least in the form of 37,000 word posts.

P.S. My thanks as always to you, Seth, for the kind words, and the same for all the rest.