Will the schedule generator be improved in OOTPBM 2006? - Page 2

Applecorey · 11-26-2005, 06:45 PM

Hard to cover all bases when creating schedule

By Michael Hiestand

Michael Trick teaches operations research, specializing in "computational methods in optimization," at Carnegie Mellon's graduate business school. So his first reaction to helping make the Major League Baseball schedule wasn't to feel intimidated.
"I figured how hard could that be?" he says. "I figured I'd pull out a couple standard approaches and come out with it quickly."

Then Trick discovered MLB scheduling was far more difficult than many other statistical challenges.

As a partner in the Sports Scheduling Group, a Butler, Pa., firm that created MLB's soon-to-be-released 2005 schedule, Trick found the math almost heartless.

"I promised myself I'd have a Pittsburgh home game on my birthday. But it was so hard to have any extra constraints, I couldn't even do that."

Henry and Holly Stephenson, a married couple in Martha's Vineyard, Mass., could have told him that.

For 23 seasons they made MLB's schedule until SSG won the 2005 contract.

Stephenson was an architect who worked as an urban planner for the New York City government before a chance meeting with NBA executives led to the couple making NBA schedules from 1978 to 1984.

While nobody "thinks they'll be a schedule-maker when they grow up," he says, the pair saw it as a way to start a business and get out of the city. They began working on a suitcase-sized PC.

The Stephensons want to make a comeback and, like SSG, will start this month to work on MLB's 2006 schedule hoping to win a contract.

Neither side will say how much the job pays or how they approach it. While Trick says "nobody can look at our schedule and backfill what we did," methodology is hard to protect. "It's unusual to patent algorithms, and that's the heart of what we do."

The basics are easy. Take 2,430 games over 26 weeks. Factor in interleague play, dates when stadiums aren't available, keeping road trips short and restrictions such as keeping teams from playing more than 20 consecutive days.

Then, avoid "semi-repeaters," where two teams play each other back-to-back in home and away series.

And, Stephenson says, TV's needs have taken on more urgency — "although broadcasters don't see games in terms of the physical reality of players having to travel."

Doug Bureman, an SSG partner and ex-Pittsburgh Pirates executive, says the bottom line is simple: "Don't let the schedule determine who wins."

Applecorey · 11-26-2005, 07:05 PM

http://www.thejournalnews.com/apps/p...503300303/1108

http://www.bizjournals.com/industrie...y7.html?page=1

http://www.canadianbaseballnews.com/...4NewSched.html

Applecorey · 11-26-2005, 07:17 PM

If Le Grande Orange tackled the 2006 schedule, what do you think the odds are that he'd get the contract? He's a fricken scheduling genius.....

theasfl · 11-26-2005, 07:21 PM

in my limited knowledge of computer programming, I would think you could create a program where you specify the amount of home and away games, the limit to home and away games in a row [and probably this same thing vs an individual opponent], the number of games per opponent, specify what days of the week could be off days, set dates that were off limits for certain teams and set start and end dates for the period of time allotted. The only thing unaccounted for is the idea of west coast and east coast trips.

Granted I only know C for the most part, but theres gotta be a programmer out there that could do it, even if it isn't very successful; its a start.

Malleus Dei · 11-26-2005, 10:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Le Grande Orange

The entire thing probably won't be finished until OOTP2007 comes out, but hey, if I'm going to plan something, I might as well plan big.

Go, LGO!

Le Grande Orange · 11-26-2005, 11:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Applecorey

If Le Grande Orange tackled the 2006 schedule, what do you think the odds are that he'd get the contract? He's a fricken scheduling genius.....

Oh no, gmo is the schedule creation genius. He's created a ton of fictional schedules already, and has a system worked out that works quite well for him. I still have yet to create a single fictional schedule, though I've wanted to sit down and do one many, many times. I think I'd be too picky with the results and would want every detail to work out perfectly, meaning it'd take an awful long time to finish one, even for a simpler alignment and format.

So, I stick to researching real-world minor league schedules — something which is much easier. That's only a matter of finding a copy of the original data and typing it up into digital form.

davep1967 · 03-10-2006, 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scott Vibert

Davep1967, unfortunately he hasn't posted since April 2004.

Really? Been that long? I'm still lurking around....

Eugene Church · 03-10-2006, 04:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by davep1967

Really? Been that long? I'm still lurking around....

As our resident expert, why don't you PM Markus and see what could be worked out?

Cras · 03-10-2006, 06:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marc Duffy

True, but even in 380 games there are various complexities such as certain teams not being able to play matches on the same day as other teams in the same city.

The guy who developed the FM one has to make the scheduler flexible for over 50 different countries leagues too.

I dont think more games in less days poses the major problem here.

FM's schedules are class. They really are top notch, top notch.

sporr · 03-10-2006, 06:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Applecorey

Hard to cover all bases when creating schedule

Thanks for the article! I've always wondered who put together the MLB schedules. I wonder how long it takes them from start to finish.

Twelvefield · 03-10-2006, 07:39 PM

Yes, the article was a real eye-opener. Although I understand that scheduling is basically complicated, I had no idea that the process was so, well, mom-and-pop. I like that.

Le Grande Orange · 03-10-2006, 07:49 PM

Based on how the 2006 MLB schedule looks, it would seem SSG did this year's schedule too. SSG's "style" of schedule is different from what the Stephensons did...

99Ballons · 03-11-2006, 05:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Le Grande Orange

Based on how the 2006 MLB schedule looks, it would seem SSG did this year's schedule too. SSG's "style" of schedule is different from what the Stephensons did...

I think I saw Markus say that the OOTP scheduler would be "as good as" two years ago. So I guess that means no real schedules, and we'll still have to hand-edit for interleague games. I know Mogul's always had the actual schedule, and their schedule generator is awesome -- I think it's because they model their schedules on historical MLB schedules instead of trying to calculate it all on the fly.

Anyway, my point being if Mogul has the MLB schedule in a text file, can Markus just import it?

jbsnadb · 03-11-2006, 06:42 AM

One important difference, I'm sure.

With the new year round schedule, we will no longer have the problem of every year being the exact same (April 28th for example always fell on the same day of the week).

james17 · 03-11-2006, 04:09 PM

Here's hoping Markus can at least give us a choice between balanced/unbalanced schedules and interleague play. If OOTP2006 has that I'll be happy.

Andy · 03-12-2006, 03:00 PM

I thought I saw Interleague Play as an option in one of the screenshots...

Andy · 03-12-2006, 03:05 PM

dola, here it is

Le Grande Orange · 03-12-2006, 03:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by james17

Here's hoping Markus can at least give us a choice between balanced/unbalanced schedules and interleague play. If OOTP2006 has that I'll be happy.

Even there things can get complicated. How much interleague play, for example? Something like the 18 games most teams in MLB play now? Or something else entirely?

Unbalanced leaves a lot of room too. Consider an 8 team split split into two divisions of 4 teams playing a 144 game season. You could format it as 32 games against divisional rivals and 12 games against the teams in the other division (32 x 3 plus 12 x 4 = 144), or you could format it as 24 games against divisional rivals and 18 games against the teams in the other division (24 x 3 plus 18 x 4 = 144). Two entirely different unbalanced formats for the same season length and same league alignment - so which would should the schedule generator default to?

It's never as simple as it might seem...

But with the schedule import function, one will always have the ability to import in a schedule which exactly meets one's preferences. It's just a matter of creating it. Mind you, that is generally easier said than done, of course.

Twelvefield · 03-12-2006, 05:24 PM

It's also just a screenshot. Screenies you can make up in Photoshop to say anything you want. You could even include stuff that otherwise exists only as scribblings on a bar napkin. In other words, there may be an intent to have the game create a balanced schedule with interleague games, but just because it's on the screenshot doesn't mean that the algorythms are in place. It's way easier to change the screenshot than it is to program schedules, or at least that's my take on it. Sorry to be a wet blanket here.

DerekT · 03-13-2006, 01:02 AM

I got to say for those who show screenshots saying "look the menu has this and this and this".

Just because the menu has an option for it, doesn't mean that the game will actually work. I mean putting in a option box in a menu for balanced schedule or unbalanced schedule is pretty easy. Making the programming for a balanced and unbalanced schedule to actually occur is something else.

11-26-2005, 06:45 PM	#21
Applecorey Major Leagues Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: New Hampshire Posts: 307	Hard to cover all bases when creating schedule By Michael Hiestand Michael Trick teaches operations research, specializing in "computational methods in optimization," at Carnegie Mellon's graduate business school. So his first reaction to helping make the Major League Baseball schedule wasn't to feel intimidated. "I figured how hard could that be?" he says. "I figured I'd pull out a couple standard approaches and come out with it quickly." Then Trick discovered MLB scheduling was far more difficult than many other statistical challenges. As a partner in the Sports Scheduling Group, a Butler, Pa., firm that created MLB's soon-to-be-released 2005 schedule, Trick found the math almost heartless. "I promised myself I'd have a Pittsburgh home game on my birthday. But it was so hard to have any extra constraints, I couldn't even do that." Henry and Holly Stephenson, a married couple in Martha's Vineyard, Mass., could have told him that. For 23 seasons they made MLB's schedule until SSG won the 2005 contract. Stephenson was an architect who worked as an urban planner for the New York City government before a chance meeting with NBA executives led to the couple making NBA schedules from 1978 to 1984. While nobody "thinks they'll be a schedule-maker when they grow up," he says, the pair saw it as a way to start a business and get out of the city. They began working on a suitcase-sized PC. The Stephensons want to make a comeback and, like SSG, will start this month to work on MLB's 2006 schedule hoping to win a contract. Neither side will say how much the job pays or how they approach it. While Trick says "nobody can look at our schedule and backfill what we did," methodology is hard to protect. "It's unusual to patent algorithms, and that's the heart of what we do." The basics are easy. Take 2,430 games over 26 weeks. Factor in interleague play, dates when stadiums aren't available, keeping road trips short and restrictions such as keeping teams from playing more than 20 consecutive days. Then, avoid "semi-repeaters," where two teams play each other back-to-back in home and away series. And, Stephenson says, TV's needs have taken on more urgency — "although broadcasters don't see games in terms of the physical reality of players having to travel." Doug Bureman, an SSG partner and ex-Pittsburgh Pirates executive, says the bottom line is simple: "Don't let the schedule determine who wins." __________________ www.boardgamegeek.com

11-26-2005, 07:05 PM	#22
Applecorey Major Leagues Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: New Hampshire Posts: 307	http://www.thejournalnews.com/apps/p...503300303/1108 http://www.bizjournals.com/industrie...y7.html?page=1 http://www.canadianbaseballnews.com/...4NewSched.html __________________ www.boardgamegeek.com

11-26-2005, 07:17 PM	#23
Applecorey Major Leagues Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: New Hampshire Posts: 307	If Le Grande Orange tackled the 2006 schedule, what do you think the odds are that he'd get the contract? He's a fricken scheduling genius..... __________________ www.boardgamegeek.com

11-26-2005, 07:21 PM	#24
theasfl Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Coral Springs, FL or Orlando, FL (UCF) Posts: 7,988	in my limited knowledge of computer programming, I would think you could create a program where you specify the amount of home and away games, the limit to home and away games in a row [and probably this same thing vs an individual opponent], the number of games per opponent, specify what days of the week could be off days, set dates that were off limits for certain teams and set start and end dates for the period of time allotted. The only thing unaccounted for is the idea of west coast and east coast trips. Granted I only know C for the most part, but theres gotta be a programmer out there that could do it, even if it isn't very successful; its a start. __________________ All-Sports Fantasy League The ASFL 22 different games, 9 sports. Please check out the website (www.theasfl.com/asfl2/). The league is free- if you're interested please fill out the signup form and/or email the commissioner. Miami Talons (ABL): 2004, 2005 & 2008 Champs

03-10-2006, 07:39 PM	#31
Twelvefield All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 1,188	Yes, the article was a real eye-opener. Although I understand that scheduling is basically complicated, I had no idea that the process was so, well, mom-and-pop. I like that.

03-10-2006, 07:49 PM	#32
Le Grande Orange Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Up There Posts: 15,642	Based on how the 2006 MLB schedule looks, it would seem SSG did this year's schedule too. SSG's "style" of schedule is different from what the Stephensons did...

03-11-2006, 06:42 AM	#34
jbsnadb All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 1,098	One important difference, I'm sure. With the new year round schedule, we will no longer have the problem of every year being the exact same (April 28th for example always fell on the same day of the week).

03-11-2006, 04:09 PM	#35
james17 All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 1,305	Here's hoping Markus can at least give us a choice between balanced/unbalanced schedules and interleague play. If OOTP2006 has that I'll be happy.

03-12-2006, 03:00 PM	#36
Andy Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Dayton, OH Posts: 2,270	I thought I saw Interleague Play as an option in one of the screenshots...

03-12-2006, 03:05 PM	#37
Andy Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Dayton, OH Posts: 2,270	dola, here it is

03-12-2006, 05:24 PM	#39
Twelvefield All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 1,188	It's also just a screenshot. Screenies you can make up in Photoshop to say anything you want. You could even include stuff that otherwise exists only as scribblings on a bar napkin. In other words, there may be an intent to have the game create a balanced schedule with interleague games, but just because it's on the screenshot doesn't mean that the algorythms are in place. It's way easier to change the screenshot than it is to program schedules, or at least that's my take on it. Sorry to be a wet blanket here.

03-13-2006, 01:02 AM	#40
DerekT Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 246	I got to say for those who show screenshots saying "look the menu has this and this and this". Just because the menu has an option for it, doesn't mean that the game will actually work. I mean putting in a option box in a menu for balanced schedule or unbalanced schedule is pretty easy. Making the programming for a balanced and unbalanced schedule to actually occur is something else.