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12-23-2002, 06:59 AM
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#1 |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Pittsburgh
Posts: 5,106
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brock2
Has anyone played around with brock2? I found a bunch of career predictions I made with it last May and forgot about, and it's kind of eerie how close certain stats came to what the players really did this year.
For an example, here's Bobby Abreu's extrapolated stats for 2002 in brock2 versus what he really did: Code:
YEAR G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB AVG 2002-brock2 157 569 122 176 44 6 27 100 110 0.309 2002-real 157 572 102 176 50 6 20 104 117 0.308 Code:
YEAR G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB AVG 1999 152 546 118 183 35 11 20 93 109 0.335 2000 154 576 103 182 42 10 25 79 100 0.316 2001 162 588 118 170 48 4 31 110 106 0.289 2002 157 569 122 176 44 6 27 100 110 0.309 2003 162 579 111 168 44 4 26 97 104 0.290 2004 157 574 110 170 43 5 24 93 103 0.296 2005 158 551 98 158 40 4 21 85 96 0.287 2006 156 550 94 156 39 4 20 81 94 0.284 2007 156 536 86 147 36 3 17 74 93 0.274 2008 154 527 82 146 36 3 16 71 83 0.277 2009 153 514 74 137 33 2 14 65 82 0.267 2010 152 507 70 133 32 2 13 61 78 0.262 2011 152 498 60 123 29 2 10 54 76 0.247 2012 81 242 33 66 15 1 5 28 36 0.273 2013 102 225 23 51 12 1 4 21 33 0.227 2014 24 52 6 13 3 0 1 5 7 0.250 2015 8 8 1 2 0 0 0 1 1 0.250 TOTALS 2465 8349 1400 2388 571 62 294 1219 1418 0.286 Jason
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"I pretty much popped everything cold turkey. We were doing steroids they wouldn't give to horses." -- Tom House "I was very fortunate to have a pitching coach by the name of Tom House...Tom, I really miss those days that we spent in the weight room and out on the field working together." -- Nolan Ryan's HoF Induction Speech |
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12-23-2002, 10:45 AM
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#2 |
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All Star Starter
Join Date: May 2002
Location: St. Catharines, Ontario
Posts: 1,135
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Where do you find this? Seems very interesting!
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12-23-2002, 10:57 AM
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#3 |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Herscher, IL
Posts: 2,458
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I'm curious, too. Haven't even heard about or seen this tool yet.
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12-23-2002, 12:19 PM
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#4 |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Pittsburgh
Posts: 5,106
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I think I found the source code on baseball1.com (?)
Poke around and let me know if you find it, if not I'll search later today after I get some sleep (night shift). Jason
__________________
"I pretty much popped everything cold turkey. We were doing steroids they wouldn't give to horses." -- Tom House "I was very fortunate to have a pitching coach by the name of Tom House...Tom, I really miss those days that we spent in the weight room and out on the field working together." -- Nolan Ryan's HoF Induction Speech |
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12-23-2002, 12:35 PM
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#5 |
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Banned
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Long Island, NY
Posts: 2,654
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http://www.baseball1.com/c-sabr.html
Check down near the bottom of the page. This is another Bill James tool. He hasn't refined it in ages, I don't know why. There's some good stuff on this page, including stuff about MLEs. GH |
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12-23-2002, 01:09 PM
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#6 |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: California
Posts: 3,493
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I used to use Brock2 quite a bit but to be honest, I completely forgot about it. From back when I used it, I thought it was a great predictor of future outcome. I mainly paid attention to the career totals predicted rather than any given year since it seems to fluctuate more when looking at yearly but does a better job at predicting the career.
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Life is not a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body; but rather to skid in broadside, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming, "Wow! What a Ride!" Chicago(N) - Boys of Summer Oakland - 20th Century League Bakersfield - Wild Things Brooklyn - QBA Dodge City - NBSL California - ABC Dodger's Senioriest fan on the OOTP Boards |
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12-24-2002, 02:16 PM
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#7 |
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Global Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Oconomowoc, WI
Posts: 2,818
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I loved Brock2. Well, pretty much anything Bill James does is gold to me. That's why I'm now a Red Sox fan!
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Matt Rectenwald Commissioner, GM: Las Vegas Hustlers, The Brewster Baseball Association- fictional league (JOIN NOW) |
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12-24-2002, 02:18 PM
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#8 |
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Global Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Oconomowoc, WI
Posts: 2,818
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In fact I think I'll change my avatar. The 87 Baseball Abstract is what really got me hooked on sabermetric analysis.
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Matt Rectenwald Commissioner, GM: Las Vegas Hustlers, The Brewster Baseball Association- fictional league (JOIN NOW) |
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12-25-2002, 12:21 AM
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#9 |
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Bat Boy
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: TEXAS
Posts: 9
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When I click on the link at baseball1.com, it just returns me to their main page. Can anyone post the file for download? I would greatly appreciate it.
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12-25-2002, 12:25 AM
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#10 |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Pittsburgh
Posts: 5,106
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Hm, the link to the source code works fine for me...
http://www.baseball1.com/bb-data/grabiner/brock2.c Jason
__________________
"I pretty much popped everything cold turkey. We were doing steroids they wouldn't give to horses." -- Tom House "I was very fortunate to have a pitching coach by the name of Tom House...Tom, I really miss those days that we spent in the weight room and out on the field working together." -- Nolan Ryan's HoF Induction Speech |
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12-25-2002, 12:29 AM
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#11 |
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Bat Boy
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: TEXAS
Posts: 9
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I get this when I compile with MS Visual C++ 6:
Compiling... brock2.cpp C:\Documents and Settings\default\My Documents\C++\brock2.cpp(51) : error C2065: 'value' : undeclared identifier C:\Documents and Settings\default\My Documents\C++\brock2.cpp(52) : error C2448: '<Unknown>' : function-style initializer appears to be a function definition C:\Documents and Settings\default\My Documents\C++\brock2.cpp(52) : fatal error C1004: unexpected end of file found Error executing cl.exe. brock2.exe - 3 error(s), 0 warning(s) |
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12-25-2002, 12:46 AM
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#12 |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Pittsburgh
Posts: 5,106
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Afraid I can't help, I don't code in Windows.
 I'm sure someone passing through will have an idea, tho. Jason
__________________
"I pretty much popped everything cold turkey. We were doing steroids they wouldn't give to horses." -- Tom House "I was very fortunate to have a pitching coach by the name of Tom House...Tom, I really miss those days that we spent in the weight room and out on the field working together." -- Nolan Ryan's HoF Induction Speech |
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12-28-2002, 04:56 PM
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#13 | |
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Guest
Posts: n/a
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Quote:
I don't have access to a C++ compiler right now because I'm not using my regular computer (since I'm home from college for semester break). So you'll have to let me know if this works ... I think the "undeclared identifier" error is because the "double round(value)" line is before the "double value" line (both are near the beginning of the program). The error is probably a result of 'value' being used before it was declared. Try switching the two lines around. Let me know if this fixes either of the other two errors - if not I'll look it over more closely. |
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12-30-2002, 12:57 PM
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#14 |
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Major Leagues
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Marmora, Ontario, Canada
Posts: 340
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I am probably wrong here...
...but didn't the Brock6 projection tool replace Brock2?
I seem to recall one of the last Abstracts mentioning Brock6 as a more complete program.
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