Konerko Inked

[sixto]

Who could have guessed this thread would get to 6 pages?

[Gastric ReFlux]

Originally Posted by sixto

Who could have guessed this thread would get to 6 pages?

I figured it would.

[eriqjaffe]

Originally Posted by sixto

Who could have guessed this thread would get to 6 pages?

Obviously, Paul Konerko has a very high VOAT (Value Over Average Thread) this year.

I wonder how much he pays for a loaf of bread?

[Gastric ReFlux]

As if he has to buy anything in Chicago. The merchants probably give him everything for free, even the Chicken Helper.

[Urth]

Originally Posted by eriqjaffe

I dunno about that...the Cubs seem to be stocking up on members of the 2000 White Sox, and I think we all know how well such moves worked out for Boston (Graffanino) and the Angels (Josh Paul).

I find it funny that this thread has more replies than the White Sox off-season thread does.

Heh, when you have a poster who, on one hand inks:

If the White Sox lost both Thomas and Konerko this offseason.........

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha hahah!!!!!!!!!!

...then reads an article on his favorite website, and then feels compelled to dispense this little gem:

Replacing players of Konerko's ability and position is pitiful easy.

...doesn't it seem likely that a very convoluted discussion will follow?

[Urth]

Originally Posted by eriqjaffe

Obviously, Paul Konerko has a very high VOAT (Value Over Average Thread) this year.

I wonder how much he pays for a loaf of bread?

Is that VOAT 1 or VOAT 3? I can't remember which one is appropriate for a single thread.

[dougaiton]

What fun this thread is!

What always gets me about MLB deals is the timing of them. To get two 1B within such a short timespan when you've a) got no idea of the market for 1B and b) no idea about the Frank Thomas situation is relatively loony. Why not hold on and see if you could do something like Howard for Rowand and Crede? Rowand's and Crede's values are sufficiently inflated that someone might do something stupid. Heck, people are so sky-high on Contreras that Contreras, Rowand and Crede might have won you the Glaus-Vazquez sweepstakes.

[Jestor]

Originally Posted by dougaiton

What fun this thread is!

What always gets me about MLB deals is the timing of them. To get two 1B within such a short timespan when you've a) got no idea of the market for 1B and b) no idea about the Frank Thomas situation is relatively loony. Why not hold on and see if you could do something like Howard for Rowand and Crede? Rowand's and Crede's values are sufficiently inflated that someone might do something stupid. Heck, people are so sky-high on Contreras that Contreras, Rowand and Crede might have won you the Glaus-Vazquez sweepstakes.

Well, Thome was just an emergency backup plan in case Konerko wasn't resigned and the multifaceted value Konerko brings to the franchise has already been discussed.

Besides, Thomas is a relatively serious injury risk, I think.

[dougaiton]

Originally Posted by Jestor

Well, Thome was just an emergency backup plan in case Konerko wasn't resigned and the multifaceted value Konerko brings to the franchise has already been discussed.

Besides, Thomas is a relatively serious injury risk, I think.

Indeed, but Thomas' injury isn't anywhere near being assessed. I'm not questioning the sense in resigning Konerko full-stop (that's already been done to death), just the timing - there's no need to do these kind of deals so early, especially when they'd 'swooped' on Thome, a guy that, err, nobody else was after.

I can almost always understand some of the reasoning why people do certain deals. I can almost never understand the timing that they do them.

[sixto]

I realize I'm a little late to the party, but darkhorse hit a rare exacta in that one post, asserting both that Konerko is easy to replace and that Roberto Petagine - at 35 - would be a suitable replacement.

It amazes me sometimes the parallels between the statistical analysis community and the Democratic Party. In both cases, the majority of members are moderate thinkers who reach for ideas with both their left and right hands, but the vocal minority in the party spends much of its time actively alienating both moderates and conservatives, effectively shooting itself in the foot.

How many Erubiel Durazos have to prove that they were not suitable full-time stars before the left-wing statheads let up? Roberto Petagine? What is he going to hit with, revenge? He certainly isn't going to match Konerko in the next couple years with a bat. We'll never know if he could have been a star, but I feel pretty confident that he wouldn't have. Maybe Bill James created a monster with his Ken Phelps All-Stars. Ken Phelps was a solid player who wasted away in the minors - but he was not a superstar in the making.

Sure, Kotchman looks solid. He's also going to be 23. In five years, he will probably be outperforming Konerko's 2005 performance, let alone 2010. But in two or three years, I'd like to see some solid evidence that, no matter what metric you use, Kotchman has a reliable chance to exceed Konerko. WARP. VORP. EQA. What have you. In the next two or three years Kotchman is a good bet to underperform Konerko, and by the time he's getting good, he'll be at a contract stage where he can make Konerko money.

You need to ask yourself how you are going to spend the $59 million you'll save by employing Kotchman or Petagine instead of Konerko. There is only so much you can do with that money. Who are you going to trade for? Jim Thome?

You can't even pour $59 million into your scouting - and why would you? Paul DePodesta's computer has all the answers. Right? Who needs scouts? Right?

That post is just a perfect example of not only why some people hate statheads, it's also a perfect example of the way some people refuse to live in the real world of baseball. When you factor in Konerko's popularity, when you factor in his demonstrated level of reliability, when you factor in the complete unreliability of other 1B candidates you mention, you come to a conclusion that while $60 million seems like a lot to pay for one player, there are worse ways to spend that money. Keeping money in your pocket for the next great deal sounds fantastic, but it does not win ballgames in the short term, which any GM must do no matter how brilliant his long-term plan is.

Remember, it's not the high price of stars that kills teams, it's the high price of mediocrity. If you seriously believe that Konerko is mediocre, well, there's just no reasoning with you.

[jgross68]

Originally Posted by sixto

Keeping money in your pocket for the next great deal sounds fantastic, but it does not win ballgames in the short term, which any GM must do no matter how brilliant his long-term plan is.

Quoted for emphasis. Very well said, Señor Lezcano.

[Jestor]

Originally Posted by dougaiton

Indeed, but Thomas' injury isn't anywhere near being assessed. I'm not questioning the sense in resigning Konerko full-stop (that's already been done to death), just the timing - there's no need to do these kind of deals so early, especially when they'd 'swooped' on Thome, a guy that, err, nobody else was after.

I can almost always understand some of the reasoning why people do certain deals. I can almost never understand the timing that they do them.

I understand what you're saying here, but from what I remember from I think it was the article that announced the signing, Konerko wanted to sign relatively early in the FA season so as to be settled. To delay negotiations would be to run the risk of either having his price drive up higher or even losing him to one of the other teams who put in an early offer.

As for getting Konerko after Thome, that played right into the White Sox's hands. Nobody *really* wanted Thome as the fulltime 1B. He's 34 or 35 and has had injury problems lately. By resigning Konerko, that allows Paulie to return to 1st and the White Sox can then have Thome DH, preserving his health and extending his career for as long as possible... and it also gives the Pale Hose a pretty potent middle of the order in the lineup.

I'll admit I have qualms about the Thome deal and considered it a serious gamble when it was made, but the subsequent events have played out in such a way that the best chances for the move parlaying out into a good one are in place.

Whether or not it will be of course depends on what happens from here.

[sebastian0622]

Excellent post, Sixto. And, you're not the only one who has noticed that particular parallel. For me, it's the pervasive idealism based on those stats at the expense of reality.

"That guy is so easy to replace!"

"Oh yeah, with who?"

*crickets*

"Ummm...I mean, not this year because the market is funny. But most of the time he's easy to replace, because the stats say so, and the stats are based on the market..."

[Joshv02]

I agree with some of your points, Six, (esp the point quoted by JG) but honestly . . . there are at least 9 1B I'd rather have regardless of contract (none of whom are available), and another ~10 who I think could have a similar season overall as Konerko next year. If Konerko puts in a .290 EqA season (or a ~.350/.480 year in that ballpark, or a 345/465 year elsewhere), I think the difference b/w that and an expected 280 EqA from, say, Petageine (his AAA #s were incredible last year) or Carlos Pena (who will likely be non-tendered) or Matt Stairs (who is old enough that the Royals must be willing to deal him relatively cheaply) etc is simply not that great.

Konerko is a top 10-15 1B. I think of that as "mediocore" or "average" but it likely is better than average given the talent distribution curve -- it is easier to find a .275 EqA hitter (say, 340/430) at 1B than it is to find a .290 hitter, sure. The quesiton still becomes what is that worth.

Anyway, here is a list of players I think are available (by cheap trade or freely) that should be expected to do a .275-285 EqA:

Matt Stairs             
Shea Hillenbrand   
Rafael Palmeiro     
Jeff Conine            
Kevin Millar          
Travis Lee             
Carlos Pena           
Hee Choi               
Tino Martinez       
John Olerud          
Ryan Shealy         
Roberto Petagine 
Ross Gload          
Andrian Gonzalez
Josh Willingham
Erubiel Durazo
Brad Wilkerson
Mark Sweeney
Matt LeCroy
Frank Thomas

. . . or, some combination of these guys to exploit a platoon advantage. This isn’t an exhaustive list and none of these players are likely going to out perform Konerko. But, if Konerko is a .290 EqA hitter -- and I think he is by the 2d or 3d year of the contract, possible in year 1 -- these guys are likely a .275-285 alternatives. This isn’t as much production, but it is much much cheaper and is not a huge drop off. If there was a good way to spend the remaining money, and I understand that it is not obvious that there is, I’d rather take some gambles than sign Konerko (unless we are talking for non-performance reasons). Sign 2-3 of these guys, or 4 of them (including Ross), and stick them in AAA to see what happens.

I agree, though, that it is not obvious that there are better alternative ways to spend the save cash, which may mean this is all moot.

[darkhorse]

Originally Posted by AnotherAlias

What they haven't taken into account, in their arguments, is that they are boring a great number of us to tears.

That never stopped you.

[sebastian0622]

Josh,

I'm glad you provided some names. I agree that some of those guys are quite capable of providing performance a small step down of what Konerko is likely to provide in 2006. But, there are four additional factors to weigh:

-Consistency: Can you be as confident that those guys will have at least a respectable year as you can about Konerko? For some, yes; for others, no way.

-Potential: It's reasonably possible (even if it's not likely) that Konerko repeats 2005. It's not reasonable to think that any other guys on that list will repeat Konerko's 2005.

-Fan support: Already discussed

-Getting rights: You still have to go out and get those guys on your list, and you'll have to give up value to do so. That value may not be huge, but it's still there.

(I'm forgetting one point; I'll have to come back to it)

[darkhorse]

Originally Posted by sixto

How many Erubiel Durazos have to prove that they were not suitable full-time stars before the left-wing statheads let up?

Say wha?

2003 537 AB, .278 EQA
2004 511 AB, .303 EQA

[darkhorse]

Originally Posted by sebastian0622

It's reasonably possible (even if it's not likely) that Konerko repeats 2004. It's not reasonable to think that any other guys on that list will repeat Konerko's 2004.

I'm sure that's a typo and you meant 2005.

[Joshv02]

Seb,

Yeah, I think those are fair points. I think that you pay a premium for a smaller potential downside (or better 'projectability', or consistency, or whatever) from Konerko. You certainly have to consider the cost of getting, say, Matt Stairs -- though, for some of these guys that cost is really small (e.g., Pena will likely be non-tendered, so the cost for him is his contract, the risk he won't sign, and the fact that you probably can't get him before Konerko signs). And, the other points are worth a premium, too.

The quesiton really is if the premium is worth it and if the if that money could be spent better elsewhere. I've not invested the time to figure that out, and I assume that smarter folks than I have or could if they wanted. From first glance, it looks really hard to spend that money better. (Perhaps dealing Uribe and/or Marte for someone and signing Furcal plus one of the good relievers out there? I don't know, it all sounds very roto like if it requires a bunch of different moves to work out . . .)

[Skipaway]

Originally Posted by Joshv02

Sign 2-3 of these guys, or 4 of them (including Ross), and stick them in AAA to see what happens.

Roster spot is sometimes a more precious property than money. Consider it this way, I am very sure very very few team actually used up their available budget for players, but teams always use up their roster spot. You usually have more flexibility in money than roster spots. That's one part of Billy Beane's brilliance that I think people seem to ignore: he generally trade away less ready prospects for big league help to speed up the pipeline, while take more ready players in drafts. All these are making his 40-man roster more effective.

Also like sebastian0622, said there is value in predictability. "See what happens" means lower values. Signing 20 minor contracts and try out 20 people sometimes indeed isn't as good as spending 1 mil on a sucky veteran.