Difference Between Stuff, Movement, and Control

[battists]

I know several people have done studies before on the impact of Stuff, Control, and Movement. But I was bored, so I did some tests, and here are the results.

Basically, I created a league with 6 teams. Each team had 5 starters, 5 relievers, and 8 position players.

Position Players
All position players began as 27 years old, with 50 rating and talent in each hitting stat, 30 in each speed/stealing stat, 25/50/50 arm ratings, and 65/.965 range and fielding % at their primary position.

Pitchers
All pitchers on each team began as 27 years old, had 75 endurance, and had pitching ratings/talent as follows, listed in the order of Stuff-Control-Movement-Velocity:

Team 1 - 100-50-50-5 The "Stuff" team
Team 2 - 50-100-50-5 The "Control" team
Team 3 - 50-50-100-5 The "Movement" team
Team 4 - 50-50-50-5 The "Low Velocity" team
Team 5 - 50-50-50-1 The "Average" team
Team 6 - 50-50-50-10 The "High Velocity" team

For velocity, 10=98-100 mph, 5=88-91 mph, and 1=87-90 mph)

Each team had 5 starters and 5 middle relievers, all with these identical statistics.

Other Settings
All players were normal in the clutch, average consistency, and no leadership skills. Scouts/coaches, financials, trades, minor league sims, injuries and player fatigue were turned off. There were no amateur drafts, free agents, or waivers. All other league settings were set to default. Creation modifiers were irrelevant since I set all of the ratings myself. All ERA settings, etc. were standard Custom League settings.

What Did I Do?
I simmed 5 150-game seasons with no human intervention. Since pretty much everything was turned off, it ran very quickly. After each season, I ran Catobase, advanced, and then readjusted the ratings back to the original settings to eliminate the changes in ratings that occurred during the season (talent or ratings increases). Obviously, the statistics are impacted slightly by changes in player ratings during each season.

Findings
Overall, it's pretty much what was expected. Here's a graph of the most relevant stats.

 
         R/G ERA  H/G  BB/G K/G  HR/G
Stuff    3.4 3.09 6.4  3.5  12.3 1.06
Control  3.7 3.30 8.8  0.9  7.4  1.06
Movement 3.3 2.91 7.9  3.4  7.6  0.23
Low      4.6 4.19 8.5  3.7  7.2  1.08
Med      4.5 4.03 8.7  3.5  7.1  1.07
High     4.6 4.07 8.6  3.5  7.1  1.08

(Alright, I give up on formatting that.)

Conclusions
-Stuff correlates highly to strikeouts, and somewhat to hits allowed
-Control correlates highly to walks, but results in the highest ERA
-Movement correlates highly to HRs, a small amount to hits allowed, and results in the lowest ERA
-Velocity appears to have no significant affect on any statistics

Other Notes
-Web site for this info: http://www.battisti.us/stuff/ootp/pitchtest/index.html
-League batting average over the 5 years was between .238 and .242.
-League ERA over the 5 years was between 3.54 and 3.66.
-The "Movement" team won 4 of the 5 championships. The "Control" team won the other.
-Winning % over the 5 years: Movement .591, Stuff .559, Control .556, Low Vel .437, Med Vel .433, Hi Vel .424

Have fun!

[PSUColonel]

If this is true, how are these pitcher ratings different than the old ones found in OOTP 5 and below.

[battists]

Originally Posted by PSUColonel

If this is true, how are these pitcher ratings different than the old ones found in OOTP 5 and below.

PSU, I'm afraid I didn't play OOTP before version 6, so I wouldn't be qualified to say!

[sfgiants88]

Very nice study, Battists.

I have long believed that those conclusions were true; this study simply provides confirmation.

Thank you

[molarmite]

Yes Thank you, I'm sure everyone even if they don't say so is thankful for this.

[battists]

Honestly, I'm pretty disappointed. The stuff/control/mvmt is good, and of course no one has such obviously level ratings, so there will still be huge variety in pitchers.

But the velocity thing disappoints me, and will obviously change how I approach spring training. Why even put points into velocity at all? Of course, the purist in me won't let me take all 5 of those points away, but these numbers tell me all of my players could through 87 and still do just as well as the fireballers.

[RchW]

Yes unfortunately velocity is just a number and has no effect on the results. Hopefully the new game will have this corrected. Of course in real life baseball is full of 90++ mph guys who had no movement and they spent their time watching home runs.

[scefalu]

Thanks to your boredom, I can work on improving my team! This answers one of the biggest questions I had about OOTP.

Thanks for sharing these results with us.

[Comedian2004]

Good stuff. (no pun intended).

Now have some fun.

Change the offense on the 'AVERAGE' team to have 8 guys with 100 for eye and 100 for power and see how that teams does then.

[bp_]

Originally Posted by battists

Honestly, I'm pretty disappointed. The stuff/control/mvmt is good, and of course no one has such obviously level ratings, so there will still be huge variety in pitchers.

But the velocity thing disappoints me, and will obviously change how I approach spring training. Why even put points into velocity at all? Of course, the purist in me won't let me take all 5 of those points away, but these numbers tell me all of my players could through 87 and still do just as well as the fireballers.

I need to try running spring training removing velocity points from every pitcher. I want to see if anyone does experience some kind of setback. If you can in fact get away with not allocating any points to velocity that could be quite a boon to player development.

[f.montoya]

Exposing this "defect" probably necessitates attention to it as "bug" status, even though it isn't a bug. Armed with this info, some could change the entire way GM's look at their online leagues.

While not a bug, and it certainly won't kill any online leagues, it could cause some unrealistic development as GM's, more and more, will decide to ignore "velocity" while alocating ST points.

I mean, who wants a Nolan Ryan with an 86mph fastball? Or who wants their entire online league to turn into "movement" dominated pitchers with low velocity?

Not good. But great work on the experiment!

[endgame]

Somewhere, while I don't recall exactly, I thought there was mention that a velocity rating does come into play with the knuckleball. There is physics in this notion, but no doubt impacted to a very small degree in the engine. IIRC in RL the knuckleball is more unpredictable in the midrange velocities than it is in the upper end of the continuum. If one were to embrace this idea, then a new look would have to encompass teams with battist's compositions, but a variable group added or changed to included knuckleball SP, which are rare.

*Added in the interest of information only and not to intended to resemble fact in any fashion.

[endgame]

Originally Posted by endgame

Somewhere, while I don't recall exactly, I thought there was mention that a velocity rating does come into play with the knuckleball. There is physics in this notion, but no doubt impacted to a very small degree in the engine. IIRC in RL the knuckleball is more unpredictable in the midrange velocities than it is in the upper end of the continuum. If one were to embrace this idea, then a new look would have to encompass teams with battist's compositions, but a variable group added or changed to included knuckleball SP, which are rare.

*Added in the interest of information only and not to intended to resemble fact in any fashion.

Here's at least one thread where that thought might have originated:

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...ht=knuckleball

[disposableheros]

in the studies ive done, velocity works in concert with stuff. high stuff and high velocity definetely brings more K than high stuff with low velocity. more K = less BIP.

not to be an a$$, but 5 seasons isnt very long (especially when only 150 games) and i can imagine there were some significant changes in ratings during the season. i see guys move up or down 10 points or more in a single season (100 scale).

this study is a good starting point for assumtions, but hardly qualifies as figuring out the pitching ratings. if anyone decides to throw out there GM style and adopt this as their new basis, please join any league im in

[theasfl]

this is pretty much right along with what I thought of the ratings...what Ive always wondered is how do they interact...

such as if a player is around 70/70/30 would he be better than 30/70/70 or 70/30/70? If I had more time Id do the same type of experiment.

either way, good work.

[DiMaggio5CF]

To be honest, I just take the ratings at face value. I put the most importance on stuff, just like most people do in real life (i.e. "he's got electric stuff"). While velocity and movement play the biggest role in a fastball, to me, good stuff means that his other pitches are "plus pitches" -- his curveball and slider might be great out pitches. Pure stuff just makes batters miss.

Then I rank movement next. Movement has more to do with the fastball, but movement is also what some term "late pop." Basically, movement keeps the ball off the fat part of the bat.

Control affects walks and, indirectly, how many pitches a guy needs to get out of an inning. For example, a guy with an edurance rating of 9 but a control rating of 4 might only go six innings; he can throw 120 pitches, but those 120 pitches might only get him through six.

So by taking those at face value, it would stand to reason that stuff equates to hits allowed and strikeouts, while movement equates to homeruns allowed, and control refers to walks allowed.

And that's pretty much what everyone else who has done a study was found.

Basically, just look at it like you were a big league scout.

You have three pitchers in front of you.

One throws great pitches.

Another one's pitches have a tailing action and late pop.

The third guy has pinpoint control.

Which one do you want the most?

[battists]

Originally Posted by DiMaggio5CF

One throws great pitches.
Another one's pitches have a tailing action and late pop.
The third guy has pinpoint control.

Which one do you want the most?

Well, if I were to consider my study, I'd want the guy with tailing action. The movement pitchers, while striking out fewer hitters, were the most successful in my study, even with only 50 stuff and 5 velocity.

Now, am I going to turn down that pitcher with the 100 stuff and 98 mph fastball if he shows up at my draft spot? Probably not. However, I may just pass on him if I can get a stud hitter, and still get a pitcher with OK stuff and great movement in the next round.

Incidentally, you're right, 5 years isn't very much, but that was about 7000 IP per team, 150 starts per starter, and I reset the ratings values after each season. Still, point taken.

[DiMaggio5CF]

Not that I'm demanding that anybody do a study, but to me this leads to one more question.

I'm assuming that all of these pitchers had the same defense behind them (which had to be true, or the study means nothing).

So now, I want to see each team (stuff team, control team, movement team) paired with a good defense, fair defense, poor defense.

Because the team in the field should have an impact on the pitchers. Obviously, it's best to have a great defensive team, but it's not always possible.

So while movement was the best overall team, maybe if you have a poor defense, you should go heavy on stuff pitchers because they allow less contact.

On the other hand, if you have a great defense, maybe that makes it more beneficial to have a control or a movement heavy pitching staff.

So what I'm saying is that this study shows who's best in a vacuum.

But I want to see which style of pitcher best compliments each defense.

Make sense?

[battists]

I do not volunteer for that one.

Actually, just to confirm, all players were set to a defensive range of 65 and fielding % of .965. All arms were the same too, so technically the teams should have all been comparable defensively!

Hope this helps!

[DerekJeter2]

Exactly what I had suspected all along. But I thought Velocity at least had some effect on the game. And I've noticed in Spring Training that when you put velocity to 0, the player rarely loses Velocity.

Thanks for the Info and Study!