Derrek Lee - Triple Crown?

AnotherAlias · 06-02-2005, 07:30 AM

What are the odds, in your opinion? He went 5-5 last night and is hitting .380
Leading the league in Ribbys (50) and Homers (17)

Sure it's early in the season, but anything's possible.

Haven't had a triple crown since Yaz in 67, can he do it? Or is it just a fluke?

What do you think?

rdklein · 06-02-2005, 08:14 AM

RBI's and Homers he has a good chance.

I think where he will eventually fail is the batting average... has he ever hit over .280?

If he improves his average 100 or so points in one season, that would be amazing in itself.

andymac · 06-02-2005, 08:34 AM

I don't see him winning either average or RBI's, in fact, I'll guarantee he doesn't win the RBI title. There isn't anyone in Chicago that is going to consistently get on in front of him. He is playing out of this world right now and only has a 4RBI lead.

Cubsgnrlmngr · 06-02-2005, 08:41 AM

He deffinately has a good chance, and June in his career is his best month, so far he's hitting 1.000 in June.

Dagrims · 06-02-2005, 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AnotherAlias

What are the odds, in your opinion?

100-1 against.

El Cid Part II · 06-02-2005, 09:49 AM

Maris hit 61 Hrs

Anything is possible

Luis_Rivera · 06-02-2005, 09:53 AM

Right now he's playing wayyyyy over his head. Chances are slim to none.

spleen1015 · 06-02-2005, 09:54 AM

He probably won't finish top 5 in any of those categories.

Gastric ReFlux · 06-02-2005, 10:16 AM

I'm going to go with yes, along with an astonishing prediction that he'll have a hitting streak of 60 or more games, to break the record held by Nomar Garciaparra and Kenny Lofton.

rdklein · 06-02-2005, 10:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gastric ReFlux

I'm going to go with yes, along with an astonishing prediction that he'll have a hitting streak of 60 or more games, to break the record held by Nomar Garciaparra and Kenny Lofton.

...and a .3409 average.

edrooney · 06-02-2005, 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andymac

I don't see him winning either average or RBI's, in fact, I'll guarantee he doesn't win the RBI title. There isn't anyone in Chicago that is going to consistently get on in front of him. He is playing out of this world right now and only has a 4RBI lead.

That's the key. To get the top RBI score, you need to be playing in a top hitting team, and it's difficult to see the Cubs being one of the top hitters. I expect is AVG to slip as well, but that's just based on past performance. He does seem locked in.

If the Cubs played the Reds for the rest of the season, I'd start laying money. As they're not, I'll go with Dags 100-1.

UngratefulDead · 06-02-2005, 10:54 AM

I think this is funny considering I had a solo league where despite being rated something like 70-80-80 he consistantly hit .220 or below for three straight seasons.

edbeck · 06-02-2005, 11:09 AM

2,000 - 1

Gastric ReFlux · 06-02-2005, 11:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by edrooney

That's the key. To get the top RBI score, you need to be playing in a top hitting team, and it's difficult to see the Cubs being one of the top hitters. I expect is AVG to slip as well, but that's just based on past performance. He does seem locked in.

If the Cubs played the Reds for the rest of the season, I'd start laying money. As they're not, I'll go with Dags 100-1.

That, or you've got an RBI rating that's off the scale. Wasn't Lee hanging out with Shea Hillenbrand during the offseason?

seth70liz76 · 06-02-2005, 11:11 AM

I wouldn't be surprised if he ended with a line like .312-40-115, but I don't know if any of that would lead the league. When he came to the Cubs, many people who knew the Marlins predicted Wrigley would bump his offensive numbers. It didn't happen last year, but this year is showing some effect.

AnotherAlias · 06-02-2005, 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by edbeck

2,000 - 1

I'd like to put a dollar down with these odds.

sebastian0622 · 06-02-2005, 02:42 PM

He plays in Wrigley. It's more than possible. I mean, Barry's not gonna get any numbers. Thome's not gonna either. Ichiro plays in that other league, so there isn't a clear cut high average guy outside of maybe Helton in the NL.

I don't think he'll do it, but I'd say it's 5-1 odds before I'd say it's 2000-1.

Dagrims · 06-02-2005, 03:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian0622

I don't think he'll do it, but I'd say it's 5-1 odds before I'd say it's 2000-1.

So something like...hmm...100-1?

sebastian0622 · 06-02-2005, 03:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dagrims

So something like...hmm...100-1?

Maybe 25-1

Imagine that this current season was played out, reset, and played out again 25 times. I think Lee would win one triple crown in there. From where he's at now, it will just take him avoiding a slump and going on a hot streak or two. (I consider a hot streak for him, based on career numbers, to be hitting .320+).

Dagrims · 06-02-2005, 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian0622

Maybe 25-1

Imagine that this current season was played out, reset, and played out again 25 times. I think Lee would win one triple crown in there. From where he's at now, it will just take him avoiding a slump and going on a hot streak or two. (I consider a hot streak for him, based on career numbers, to be hitting .320+).

He's already had his two hot streaks for the season - April and May. He's 16 for his last 25 with seven walks, 12 runs and 12 RBI.

If he hits .282 over the rest of the season (the highest full season batting average he's had) and gets a total of 600 AB, he'll wind up with a .312 batting average. That won't win the batting crown. Let's assume a .340 average will be needed to win it, which is not unrealistic considering the last NL batting champion to hit less than .350 was Gwynn in 1992. In a 600 AB season he'd have to hit .322 over the next four months. That's a four month hot streak according to your definition, coming on the heels of a two month performance in which he hit more than 100 points higher than his lifetime average.

I think the chances of him hitting 50 points over his lifetime average over the remainder of the season are very small. His batting average has a 2004 Ivan Rodriguez feel to it, in my opinion. I'd love to see him be in the running for it late in the season, though.

06-02-2005, 07:30 AM	#1
AnotherAlias Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: I'm back...for now Posts: 4,190	Derrek Lee - Triple Crown? What are the odds, in your opinion? He went 5-5 last night and is hitting .380 Leading the league in Ribbys (50) and Homers (17) Sure it's early in the season, but anything's possible. Haven't had a triple crown since Yaz in 67, can he do it? Or is it just a fluke? What do you think?

06-02-2005, 08:34 AM	#3
andymac Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Effingham, IL Posts: 5,725	I don't see him winning either average or RBI's, in fact, I'll guarantee he doesn't win the RBI title. There isn't anyone in Chicago that is going to consistently get on in front of him. He is playing out of this world right now and only has a 4RBI lead. __________________ June Madness: Links FTB: andymac

06-02-2005, 08:41 AM	#4
Cubsgnrlmngr Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 249	He deffinately has a good chance, and June in his career is his best month, so far he's hitting 1.000 in June. __________________ Chicago Cubs NGBL If you don't know who Kirby Puckett was or of his face escapes you're memory at the moment. Check this short video out about one of the most clutch baseball players in the history of the MLB. R.I.P. Kirby Puckett

06-02-2005, 09:49 AM	#6
El Cid Part II Minors (Single A) Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Reuniting the Spanish Cookie Elves Posts: 51	Maris hit 61 Hrs Anything is possible __________________ George Bush- "Thank you, and Goats Blow America"

06-02-2005, 11:11 AM	#15
seth70liz76 All Star Starter Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 1,634	I wouldn't be surprised if he ended with a line like .312-40-115, but I don't know if any of that would lead the league. When he came to the Cubs, many people who knew the Marlins predicted Wrigley would bump his offensive numbers. It didn't happen last year, but this year is showing some effect. __________________ It was a mistake to come back.

06-02-2005, 08:14 AM	#2
rdklein All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: The other side. Posts: 773	RBI's and Homers he has a good chance. I think where he will eventually fail is the batting average... has he ever hit over .280? If he improves his average 100 or so points in one season, that would be amazing in itself.

06-02-2005, 09:53 AM	#7
Luis_Rivera Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 4,177	Right now he's playing wayyyyy over his head. Chances are slim to none.

06-02-2005, 09:54 AM	#8
spleen1015 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2002 Posts: 6,010	He probably won't finish top 5 in any of those categories.

06-02-2005, 10:16 AM	#9
Gastric ReFlux Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Member #3409 Posts: 8,350	I'm going to go with yes, along with an astonishing prediction that he'll have a hitting streak of 60 or more games, to break the record held by Nomar Garciaparra and Kenny Lofton.

06-02-2005, 10:54 AM	#12
UngratefulDead Banned Join Date: May 2004 Location: Bay Area Posts: 3,415	I think this is funny considering I had a solo league where despite being rated something like 70-80-80 he consistantly hit .220 or below for three straight seasons.

06-02-2005, 11:09 AM	#13
edbeck Bat Boy Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 10	2,000 - 1

06-02-2005, 02:42 PM	#17
sebastian0622 Banned Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 3,465	He plays in Wrigley. It's more than possible. I mean, Barry's not gonna get any numbers. Thome's not gonna either. Ichiro plays in that other league, so there isn't a clear cut high average guy outside of maybe Helton in the NL. I don't think he'll do it, but I'd say it's 5-1 odds before I'd say it's 2000-1.