Yet Another OOTP6 Dynasty, Year 2: One Flew Over the Pale Hose

[Jestor]

Oh, the buzzing of the bees
In the sycamore trees
'Round the soda water fountain
Where the lemonade springs
And the bluebird sings
In the Big Rock Candy Mountain!

[cknox0723]

Originally Posted by Jestor

Oh, the buzzing of the bees
In the sycamore trees
'Round the soda water fountain
Where the lemonade springs
And the bluebird sings
In the Big Rock Candy Mountain!

Wee Sing Fun 'n Folk

The depth of your musical knowledge never ceases to amaze me.

[cknox0723]

So, is that all? I don't like any of these teams. There's not a single "ace" in the division. What a joke. Chicago's in the West, isn't it?

At least I won't be resigned to last year's standings, though. I imagine the Dodgers have to be the punitive favorite, by virtue of their payroll if nothing else. Remember, though -- two teams in baseball history have won a World Series with a twenty-two year old catcher. They won't be the third.

The other four teams will be lucky to reach .500, but damned if I could separate one team from another. Lousy pitching, decent lineups straight across the board. I'll go with Arizona for second place, since they have a decent bullpen, and Colorado third because I'm too chicken to drop them further. That leaves only the California teams, and a coin flip puts the Friars above the Sailors Giants. Sorry, UD.

[canadiancreed]

Originally Posted by Jestor

Oh, the buzzing of the bees
In the sycamore trees
'Round the soda water fountain
Where the lemonade springs
And the bluebird sings
In the Big Rock Candy Mountain!

damn now you've got that song stuck in my head

[gordyhulten]

Originally Posted by canadiancreed

damn now you've got that song stuck in my head

Me, too.

The people at work are wondering why I'm walking around whistling it...

[canadiancreed]

at least its' better than the crap on the radio

[cknox0723]

Originally Posted by canadiancreed

damn now you've got that song stuck in my head

Originally Posted by gordyhulten

Me, too.

The people at work are wondering why I'm walking around whistling it...

Originally Posted by canadiancreed

at least its' better than the crap on the radio

[cknox0723]

AL WEST STANDINGS OF AUGHT-SIX
L.A. Mariners of Seattle...99-63 (.611 win pct.), -- GB, L 3-2 to CLE in ALDS
L.A. Angels of Anaheim.....91-71 (.562), 8 GB, L 4-1 to CLE in ALCS
L.A. Rangers of Texas......86-76 (.531), 13 GB
L.A. A's of Oakland........67-95 (.414), 32 GB

I didn't pull the 'lost to CLE X of Y' trick like I did for the National League West and the Cubs, so you get four teams from Los Angeles. If you expected different....

Any long-time readers remember the controversial trade of Laynce Nix last June? The Rangers, leading the wild card at the time, traded their starting left fielder to chief competitor L.A. of Anaheim for various gardening tools and meat substitutes, mainly because Ricky Ledee was hitting like gangbusters at the time. As it turned it out, the Halos later dumped Nix on Toronto for right-handed moundsman Rhett Parrott, who was quite adept at squawking out (ahem) "CAWWWW...three-run homer." But that became secondary to the collapse of the Texas ballclub, spurred on because Ledee stopped hitting .350 and someone named Tydus Meadows frolicked to the plate for 176 unproductive at-bats. The moral of the story? No one team is above the game.

Yes, I know that doesn't make any sense. I tried. In any case, there should be no lack of a storyline in this division, unless I get lazy and pretend they don't exist. And considering the subpar record of the Pale Hose against this division last year (ahem, 11-23), I just might pretend that the A's et al. don't exist!

But, reluctantly, I shall stick to my atman, for otherwise I'd take the risk of being stuck in a cycle of 65-win seasons for the rest of my existence. Much as I enjoy the underdog role, someday I'm going to take this team to the same heights as the Oklahoma Wranglers.

[gordyhulten]

Originally Posted by cknox0723

But, reluctantly, I shall stick to my atman, for otherwise I'd take the risk of being stuck in a cycle of 65-win seasons for the rest of my existence. Much as I enjoy the underdog role, someday I'm going to take this team to the same heights as the Oklahoma Wranglers.

Or the same depths as the Iowa Legends, perhaps?

Thanks for the plug.

And I missed the trade of Laynce Nix last season, somehow. What kind of name is Laynce, anyway?

[cknox0723]

Originally Posted by gordyhulten

Or the same depths as the Iowa Legends, perhaps?

Thanks for the plug.

And I missed the trade of Laynce Nix last season, somehow. What kind of name is Laynce, anyway?

yeah, the same depths as the iowa legends -- wait, aren't we already there?

you're welcome for the plug, laynce is a poorly-spelled name, and i just managed to lose 2500 words of a paper that i was writing. yet i'll be able to copy this next post in here no trouble. i hate the way the world works sometimes.

[cknox0723]

Somewhere in this alternate universe, Billy Beane is furiously plotting the sequel to his best-selling autobiography: Dr. Strangeglove, Or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bunt. The A's scuffled to sixty-seven wins and a third consecutive last-place finish in 2006, and in a page straight out of the Chuck LaMar Guide to Winning Baseball, made a huge splash in the market by signing 37 year old Bret Boone to displace .290 hitting second sacker Miguel Cairo.

To be fair, this wasn't exactly an offseason full of bargains (trust me on that one! ), but after losing Mark Kotsay to Tampa and "The Organ" to the beloved Pale Hose, Oaktown needed an outfielder. Instead, they got Boone, who still can drive the ball, but the A's have plenty of guys that can do that. Nick Swisher, slated to start in left, is not necessarily one of them. Bob Kielty and Bill McMillon won't join Eric Chavez as answers to the trivia question "What Athletics won an MVP from 2000-2025?", either, but I guess it's pointless to hem and maw over what could be or should be. It's not pointless to sit back and laugh at Jeremy Brown, starting catcher and owner of a career .282 OBP and .275 SLG, so...take your Moneyball and stick it, statheadzz!

Oakland has an even bigger problem aside from their one-dimensional offense, though, and that's the pitching, which somehow managed to give up more runs than even the Pale Hose in '06. Roughly half of those were handed out by Joe Blanton, who elicited me to wonder how OOTP's development engine accounts for disaster seasons. And, boy, what a disaster it was:

G	IP	H	BB	K	HR	W-L	ERA
35	140.1	190	54	86	18	4-18	7.76

Consider that the league average was nearly four full runs lower, at 3.90. Might that be the worst pitching season ever? I'll do some research and get back to you, maybe. But Blanton pretty much single-handedly negated the 62 innings of a run average just above two from Arthur Rhodes, who saved twenty-five, and the fine work from his set-up man Jim "Quasimodo" Mecir, who pitched 93 frames and allowed 3.39 runs per nine.

But whatever fans this club had left were still praying for rain even when Blanton wasn't on the mound, because the rest of the rotation wasn't much better. Mark Mulder posted a second consecutive season of league-average pitching, and that might just be his performance level in this universe. Think B. Beane took note? I like Mulder's ERA to drop perhaps as much as a run from last year's 4.39, but it still won't mean much. The four guys behind him, none of whom are named 'Blanton' (he's mercifully in AAA), would all be on the fringes of any other rotation, even the Pale Hose. All have a proclivity to give out lots of home runs, and all have many letters in their last names, so I won't even mention them. Same goes for the bullpen, aside from Rhodes and Mecir, it's a cast of no-names and misfits, and not even misfits that can occasionally pitch well like Quasimodo. Youngsters like 25 year old Bradley Sullivan can't come up from AAA fast enough, but even he is not a savior like one young man named Scarborough.

So who is the savior in Oakland? Well, last year's 13th overall pick was a high school catcher (!), likely from Louisiana, with the wonderful name of Robert Thibodeaux. The kid hit .212 with 11 home runs in 259 at-bats at single-A. My scout opines that he'll be a star if "he'll get his head on straight." I wonder if the management in Oakland will ever do the same.

[BadluckinOOTP]

Originally Posted by cknox0723

Somewhere in this alternate universe, Billy Beane is furiously plotting the sequel to his best-selling autobiography: Dr. Strangeglove, Or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bunt. The A's scuffled to sixty-seven wins and a third consecutive last-place finish in 2006, and in a page straight out of the Chuck LaMar Guide to Winning Baseball, made a huge splash in the market by signing 37 year old Bret Boone to displace .290 hitting second sacker Miguel Cairo.

To be fair, this wasn't exactly an offseason full of bargains (trust me on that one! ), but after losing Mark Kotsay to Tampa and "The Organ" to the beloved Pale Hose, Oaktown needed an outfielder. Instead, they got Boone, who still can drive the ball, but the A's have plenty of guys that can do that. Nick Swisher, slated to start in left, is not necessarily one of them. Bob Kielty and Bill McMillon won't join Eric Chavez as answers to the trivia question "What Athletics won an MVP from 2000-2025?", either, but I guess it's pointless to hem and maw over what could be or should be. It's not pointless to sit back and laugh at Jeremy Brown, starting catcher and owner of a career .282 OBP and .275 SLG, so...take your Moneyball and stick it, statheadzz!

Oakland has an even bigger problem aside from their one-dimensional offense, though, and that's the pitching, which somehow managed to give up more runs than even the Pale Hose in '06. Roughly half of those were handed out by Joe Blanton, who elicited me to wonder how OOTP's development engine accounts for disaster seasons. And, boy, what a disaster it was:

G	IP	H	BB	K	HR	W-L	ERA
35	140.1	190	54	86	18	4-18	7.76

Consider that the league average was nearly four full runs lower, at 3.90. Might that be the worst pitching season ever? I'll do some research and get back to you, maybe. But Blanton pretty much single-handedly negated the 62 innings of a run average just above two from Arthur Rhodes, who saved twenty-five, and the fine work from his set-up man Jim "Quasimodo" Mecir, who pitched 93 frames and allowed 3.39 runs per nine.

But whatever fans this club had left were still praying for rain even when Blanton wasn't on the mound, because the rest of the rotation wasn't much better. Mark Mulder posted a second consecutive season of league-average pitching, and that might just be his performance level in this universe. Think B. Beane took note? I like Mulder's ERA to drop perhaps as much as a run from last year's 4.39, but it still won't mean much. The four guys behind him, none of whom are named 'Blanton' (he's mercifully in AAA), would all be on the fringes of any other rotation, even the Pale Hose. All have a proclivity to give out lots of home runs, and all have many letters in their last names, so I won't even mention them. Same goes for the bullpen, aside from Rhodes and Mecir, it's a cast of no-names and misfits, and not even misfits that can occasionally pitch well like Quasimodo. Youngsters like 25 year old Bradley Sullivan can't come up from AAA fast enough, but even he is not a savior like one young man named Scarborough.

So who is the savior in Oakland? Well, last year's 13th overall pick was a high school catcher (!), likely from Louisiana, with the wonderful name of Robert Thibodeaux. The kid hit .212 with 11 home runs in 259 at-bats at single-A. My scout opines that he'll be a star if "he'll get his head on straight." I wonder if the management in Oakland will ever do the same.

Did Billy Beane get replaced by this guy?

[gordyhulten]

Originally Posted by cknox0723

you're welcome for the plug, laynce is a poorly-spelled name, and i just managed to lose 2500 words of a paper that i was writing. yet i'll be able to copy this next post in here no trouble. i hate the way the world works sometimes.

My sympathies. Nice write-up of Oakland. I'm curious as to what you'll find if you spend more time researching Blanton's disastrous season. I don't think I've ever seen the AI give that much playing time to somebody who was so obviously incompetent. This guy had a bad 1993, but that's about the worst I've seen, just clicking around, and it's not nearly as bad as Blanton's.

[cknox0723]

Originally Posted by BadluckinOOTP

Did Billy Beane get replaced by this guy?

Yes? No? Could be worse, could have been this guy; can't find any links other than that one, oddly, but he was supposedly so wild that he warmed up with an inflatable doll wearing a Dodger uniform standing in the batter's box. Never made the bigs. Bet he'd make a great GM.

Originally Posted by gordyhulten

My sympathies. Nice write-up of Oakland.

Thanks and thanks.

Originally Posted by gordyhulten

I'm curious as to what you'll find if you spend more time researching Blanton's disastrous season. I don't think I've ever seen the AI give that much playing time to somebody who was so obviously incompetent. This guy had a bad 1993, but that's about the worst I've seen, just clicking around, and it's not nearly as bad as Blanton's.

It's true that Blanton did (and probably still has some) gobs of potential, but I kept pushing the stat weight up, and it was around 40% by the end of the year. Why they preferred him over "Olympia" Duchscherer, I'll never know.

Interesting link. For a guy that couldn't throw strikes and often left the ball up when he did, Godley had a nice career. Oh, and (hint, hint) that's just the sort of thing that I think we should do more often here in this forum -- draw comparisons between guys in our leagues. We don't have to live in our own little vacuum even if we are playing in a league by ourselves, you know.

Thanks, gents.

[cknox0723]

The Curse of Nix may not have as much weight as it could, considering the Rangers have finished in third the last three seasons, but it provides a heck of a hook. To try to reverse the curse, management made some nice moves this offseason, adding Randy Choate and Julian "The Beaver" Tavarez to shore up a bullpen which featured two pitchers, Dan Patterson and Valerio de los Santos, with ERA's north of six last year. Pale Hose cult favorite Brian Buchanan also joined up to try to turn left-handed pitchers into mashed-up spuds, but, alas, it still won't be enough. The defection of Corey Patterson to Cleveland leaves this team with a gaping hole in the middle of the outfield and the lineup that Dave Dellucci can't fill up even with his considerable .364 OBP. The same recognizable faces remain, and Blalock, Young, Nivar, Laird, and Teixeira give this club a strong foundation to build upon. But there's just a skeleton besides, and I don't see a house being built this year. Maybe a house of cards, if they're lucky.

The pitching, long the bane of Arlington's existence, finished eleventh in baseball in run prevention last year and is only poised to improve with a full year from Dewon Brazelton, who won 15 and lost just 5 last year, thus becoming too expensive for Montreal, who shuffled him off at the deadline for a cheaper version, Ricardo Rodriguez. He'll fit in nicely alongside Matt Morris and Chan Ho Park, and only Jeff D'Amico and Jason Marquis can't be considered sure bets to pitch above the league average rate. While this group seems capable of allowing perhaps 50 less runs than last year's corps thanks to building a better bullpen-trap, they should lose twice as many on the offensive end, mostly by virtue of starting Tydus Meadows in left. Another key problem is one which has plagued Texas in recent years, the dearth of quality on-base percentage even among their better hitters. If Teixeira or Blalock were to hit .250 instead of what they're nominally capable of, this outfit could struggle to finish even .500. As it is, their record should superficially be similar to last year's, and with this offseason's mini spending spree a sign that the purse strings may be open, perhaps '07 will just be a speed bump along the way to ending the third-place curse in Texas. But that's what they said across the way in Chicago in 1909, too.

[cknox0723]

The Angels came oh so close to another cinderella World Series run after knocking off the Empire, but instead it was Cleveland fans who got to rally around a stupid stuffed object and make loud noises, though thankfully not with big red sticks. The ingredients were much the same -- John Lackey, Jarrod Washburn, a deep, multi-talented bullpen and of course the always-gritty David Eckstein. But once again, the organization has failed to upgrade even minimally, with the big-ticket addition being one J. Lugo, and now they'll need more than a rally monkey to repeat last year's ALCS run.

Last year's bullpen featured five main pitchers -- K-Rod, Percival, Donnelly, Rick White, and Steve Green -- none of whom had an ERA higher than 3.53. Instead of searching for Joe Fuschia this offseason, the club should have been trying to figure out how they finished in the middle of the pack in run prevention despite such a strong group of firemen. Of course, this wasn't exactly the $64,000 Question, as a cursory glance of the stats made the answer plain as day. The Halos received nearly 350 innings of sub replacement-level pitching from such luminaries as Bob Jenks, now out of baseball, Rhett Parrott, now squawking away in AAA, and one Glendon Rusch, who's back for another 35-start whirl. Apparently his combined no-hitter on May seventh, one of just two in the bigs last year, provides for quite the ad campaign. I've no doubt that Mr. No-Hitter will improve on his 5.55 ERA of a year ago, but any improvement may be negated by regression from "Big Ben" Howard, who's as much a 3.16 ERA pitcher as I am a tap-dancer.

A fifth place finish in run scoring is certainly attainable once again, as only Reggie Willits in center field appears to be a below-average performer, but perhaps he'll ride the same lightning that 36 year old Denny Hocking did last year. The journeyman's now probably a year from retirement, but for a half-year last year, he seemed anything but, flirting with .400 before slumping badly in the second half and finishing at a very empty .315. Nevertheless, an average of .315 or .215 from the eight spot won't matter much when the other two outfield spots are manned by "Mad Vlad" Guerrero and Hall of Very Good inductee-in-waiting Garret Anderson, who posted career-highs last year with a .369 OBP and .891 OPS. Burly first baseman Jack Cust hits in the middle of the lineup alongside those two and provides another 30 home run threat to drive in Alfonso Soriano and Justin Leone at the top of the lineup. Soriano, a .462 slugger in the year past, is miscast as a leadoff hitter, but I suppose it's too tempting not to place his 50 stolen base speed at the top. Leone, the 2005 Rookie of the Year, put up eerily similar numbers to his award-winning .306/.361/.420 campaign, but I suppose that's to be expected of a 28 year old. He'll also provide a fine mask to the defensive weaknesses of the king of scrap and grit, David Eckstein, who set a team record by being plunked with 20 pitches last year. Eck's flaws are many, and I'd be more likely to throw a gubernatorial vote to the underappreciated Brian Schneider. Schneider, an All-Star last year out of default, happens to be a fine backstop, excellent defensively and with enough power to provide a .700 OPS. With youngster Jeff Mathis perhaps a year away, Schneider could be a trade possibility in a year or two, as could Julio Lugo if I learn that I have sadomasochistic tendencies.

I like this team quite a bit more than I probably should, perhaps subtly understating their flaws. Maybe it's the bullpen, or maybe it's the soft spot I have for The Hacktastic One. They're not in the class of the New York teams, and as you'll see, they're not even the class of their own division. But they should be in it to the end.

[cknox0723]

How good was Seattle last year? Well, they underperformed their Pythagorean record by seven games -- and still won the division by 8, coming up one win short of 100. They led all of baseball with a team ERA of 2.98; this despite a fourth starter, Jay Young, with an earned run average of an even 5.00. This is a team that built an offense around the inimitable Ichiro! and succeeded -- no, flourished. Never mind their first round playoff exit; the 2006 Seattle club came within shouting distance of the 116-win 2001 edition. To say the least, an excellent season it was.

But can they do it again? The payroll's increased a handful of dollars, but Cy Young winner Joel Pineiro is now a Pirate, and after the signing of Juan Pierre, AL batting champ Chris Snelling has gone to Oakland in exchange for third base prospect Will Catania. How do you make up for those two player-seasons? Is it even possible? To have a chance, Seattle will need a repeat of the 30 wins and 430 innings of sub-2.50 ERA ball that they got from Tomo Ohka and Odalis Perez. But neither had ever pitched as well as they did last season. Maybe they've established a new level of performance, improved their control just a touch and changed their grip a quarter-inch on that two-seam fastball to get just enough bite to confound lefties eight times out of nine. But even if that's the case, if 35 year old shorstop Rich Aurilia loses a step, and a few outs turn into RBI singles, then those 2.50 ERA's are 2.75, or 3.10, aren't they?

The best teams are those with a minimal chance for a worst-case scenario. Look at the Hose. If Mark Buehrle gets a lobotomy and Magglio Ordonez goes on a Mormon mission, we'd probably win ten games this year, and then TotalEnd would owe me a hell of a lot of chocolate milk. Well, the Mariners may have won 99 games last year, but they're not that far away from the "20 gallons of chocolate milk" scenario, either. Behind the front two in their rotation, they have 26 year old Clint Nageotte, with 36 god-awful major league innings under his belt. He's their #3. The fourth starter is Gil "Ga" Meche, who posted a 6.26 ERA in 26 innings last year, and his scouting report reads something like "hope the real estate business pays well!", same as fifth starter John Halama's. Don't know if that weights equally or more or less than a few seasons of league-average pitching but we have a 35 year old with a mediocre strikeout rate and an oft-injured 26 year old here, not Randy Johnson. How many playoff teams you know of with three starters who might, if things break just right, be league-average pitchers?

The bullpen is fine; excellent, even. Could be the best in the business. Most of the puzzle pieces from last year's lineup return and Luis Castillo and Juan Pierre are glossy new additions, if not necessarily from a different puzzle. But they should fit OK. And Adam Dunn, who hit a middling .242 last year, could provide a whole wealth of run scoring just by a 20 point uptick in his batting average. But despite all of the team's speed and the high batting averages of Scratchiro! and Doug "Zwieback" Mientkiewicz, something is telling me that this team isn't going to score enough runs, even if they did place ninth in the majors last year in that department.

Sabermetrics is probably what keeps me fascinated with baseball as much as anything else. It's fun to think that there's an objective truth out there, because where is there an objective anything in our lives? But there's also some truth in the quotation, "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics." Ultimately, you can turn numbers into anything you want, and when the standings read all zeroes, you're just guessing anyway, because, to use the trite expression, anything can happen. And often it does. So I won't lie. I don't know why I think the Mariners are going to disappoint this year. But a year removed from their second-best season ever, I can't even promise that they'll finish over .500. It's just a gut feeling.

But it's a strong one.

p.s. happy easter, one and all.

[Tiger Fan]

I hate to admit I never really had a chance to read more than just a couple of posts in the Pale Hose saga before today. Like a lot of us I imagine, I get too busy with my own dynasty to really focus on some of the others. However, with Yoda and Vris's countdowns I have tried to make it a point to read as many as I can and I must say this is outstanding.

Your writing style is fantastic. In fact, I am envious of the humour you add and the flow this story has. I have never been much of a fan of modern mlb dynasty reports (far preferring historical or fictional) but I am hooked on this one.

Great job. I look forward to reading much more.

[cknox0723]

Originally Posted by Tiger Fan

I hate to admit I never really had a chance to read more than just a couple of posts in the Pale Hose saga before today. Like a lot of us I imagine, I get too busy with my own dynasty to really focus on some of the others. However, with Yoda and Vris's countdowns I have tried to make it a point to read as many as I can and I must say this is outstanding.

Your writing style is fantastic. In fact, I am envious of the humour you add and the flow this story has. I have never been much of a fan of modern mlb dynasty reports (far preferring historical or fictional) but I am hooked on this one.

Great job. I look forward to reading much more.

As Seth says, "Praise from Caesar." Thanks, TF. I'm much happier with this thread than the first; I think I've finally figured out how I'd like to cover things and I think it has made the story flow much better.

As an aside, your post finally gives me the motivation to check up on your fantastic universe, something I've been meaning to do for weeks. So that's where I'm heading after this.

[cknox0723]

OK, I lied. Anaheim is the class of this division. It's close, though. Close between them -- and Texas.

That's what I get for trying to put things in order before I've looked at every team. Thinking like that is the basis for doing stupid stuff like losing my mailbox key. That's OK, though; it happens.

And my thinking on this division could be entirely wrong, too, but why not be ambitious and give it a try anyway? Anaheim's going to make the playoffs as the division's winner this time, and darned if Texas might not follow. Their wild card race with Boston should be a fantastic one to watch. Seattle's probably the best third-place team around, even with their glaring flaws, and Oakland still sucks even having traded for batting champion and career .303 hitter Chris Snelling. It was a good trade, too, as prospect Will Catania was superfluous with Eric Chavez around, and the A's even picked up an OK catching prospect in Chao-Kuan Wu, too. With any luck, perhaps he'll patch up what is a huge organizational sore spot within a year or two. Although the way things have been going in Oakland, they'll trade both guys away for John Mabry or someone. F***in' A, indeed.