Is this pitcher worth keeping as a rule 5 pick?

[winningwithstyle]

I am unsure if his stats are good enough to be a reliever for a whole season as an RP/ fringe SP. His change and Fastball are well devv'ed for his age and he could be one hot streak away from blowing up. On the other hand, his spot in my bullpen is taking up a spot that I could use on a decent, but better FA reliever. Any suggestions

[Bluenoser]

Hard to say what he'd do over a full season but I wouldn't be dumping him anytime soon. He's 23, so that FB might develop fully, and a 95-97 mph FB is real nice to have in the pen. Also could be a long reliever/clean-up guy too.

And definitely see what he does in ST. Give him some work.

[ihatenames]

This all depends on need to me. Do you need long relief or a slot starter? How deep is your rotation depth?If not needed for the above I'd probably drop him for a guy with a bit more ability to strike people out for the bullpen. He has potential to breakout due to his height and fastball. So if you're a bit shallow at the starter position he might be worth hanging on to.

[winningwithstyle]

I have a team built for GB pitchers as I have Schwarber in LF. I already have Josh Johnson and Matt Garza in the bullpen, but I am considering a drop of Garza as all of his pitches are rated between 40-50 max and only has 65 movement/60 control. Josh Johnson is just coming off a 12 month injury, only cost me 4m a year, and is working his stamina back after it dropped to 45. I feel that dropping Paulino might be a bad Idea. I actually did one hell of a job in my Rule 5 this year and Paulino was a comeup I did not think I would get

[NoOne]

pretty sure height just affects velocity at creation (or affects probability of increasing velocity etc). after 21-22, which it is already rare at that age, you shouldn't expect to see major upward swings in velocity.

based on his pitch ratings he's a #6-7 / LR in the pen and an emergency starter, like you said. you don't need 3-4 of those types of guys. if you have good depth for those roles and the FA reliever you mention is going to be a top-4 reliever in your pen, i'd go get the FA reliever. (assumes no other significant issues, like payroll)

[ihatenames]

Height can effect stamina as well unless things have changed.

Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn

- Shorter pitchers (< 5"11') generally get generated with lower stamina (of course there are exceptions though) and have a worse chance to develop more stamina in the future.

Full post & thread here:

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...ml#post3275284

[winningwithstyle]

Originally Posted by NoOne

pretty sure height just affects velocity at creation (or affects probability of increasing velocity etc). after 21-22, which it is already rare at that age, you shouldn't expect to see major upward swings in velocity.

based on his pitch ratings he's a #6-7 / LR in the pen and an emergency starter, like you said. you don't need 3-4 of those types of guys. if you have good depth for those roles and the FA reliever you mention is going to be a top-4 reliever in your pen, i'd go get the FA reliever. (assumes no other significant issues, like payroll)

I am in a bit of a situation though. My team is not going to playoffs this season. Garza is gone after the year as I took on his $12.5m contract to get some specs in return. If I am lucky, my team will finish with 80 wins as my Ace is a 3 star pitcher and it tails off to 1 star guys after my #2 guy. Yes, he does fit into my groundball team style, but he is maybe the 5th best guy out of my pen. His pitches are rated between 35-50 and his stuff is only a 50. His numbers are actually really bad for an out of the pen LR/MR guy. The thing is he has 65 control and 65 movement. Paulino has 55 everything, minus his wicked fastball, he is a neutral pitcher but he will get a ton of Ks, and his Changeup is devv'ing and it gives him 3 great pitches to choose from; a hard find when looking for pitching. I am actually going to drop Garza and eat his $12m salary this season. No reason to have him, I am not going to contend, might as well let a rookie try out. If he sucks that bad, then I can pick up Garza again for like 1m on the market in April or May

[NoOne]

Originally Posted by winningwithstyle

I am in a bit of a situation though. My team is not going to playoffs this season. Garza is gone after the year as I took on his $12.5m contract to get some specs in return. If I am lucky, my team will finish with 80 wins as my Ace is a 3 star pitcher and it tails off to 1 star guys after my #2 guy. Yes, he does fit into my groundball team style, but he is maybe the 5th best guy out of my pen. His pitches are rated between 35-50 and his stuff is only a 50. His numbers are actually really bad for an out of the pen LR/MR guy. The thing is he has 65 control and 65 movement. Paulino has 55 everything, minus his wicked fastball, he is a neutral pitcher but he will get a ton of Ks, and his Changeup is devv'ing and it gives him 3 great pitches to choose from; a hard find when looking for pitching. I am actually going to drop Garza and eat his $12m salary this season. No reason to have him, I am not going to contend, might as well let a rookie try out. If he sucks that bad, then I can pick up Garza again for like 1m on the market in April or May

that was all about paulino and the original post. if the releiver isn't long-term solution to something, then i wouldn't bother unless it's a short contract.

based on the description i'd view paulino and garza as near equivalents. so go cheaper or keep what returns less? depends on situation. if he's not part of your long-term plans, it's a no-brainer to get rid of him. i almost always prefer younger pitchers.

the problematic tendency that i've noticed is an extreme flyball pitcher... they get near 40% and they start giving up alot of runs in my experience. when my pitchers shift from gb or average to extreme fb, it tends to coincide with a slide in performance or at the very least increased volatility in results.

extreme gb isn't as bad but also isn't as good as near neutral, or my preference, a slight gb tendency (54 is avg, think ~60% gets into gb tendency). fly balls are easy outs, gb's are better than line drives but still do damage. you don't want to be too extreme in either unless they are filling a very specific role, which is great for your less-used releivers.

pitch selection will affect what is better, too. some pitches aren't as effective if the guy isn't at the right gb/fb tendency.

i don't look at stats unless i am unsure of the combination of ratings and pitch selections etc... i wouldn't expect more than a #4-5 on a playoff team out of paulino. he's not that good, but probably better than average.