Unrealistic Runners LOB

[lwing37]

I have an issue what seems to me to be an unrealistic number of runners left on base. For example, in four games with the Cubs versus Texas and Seattle, each team combined for 151 runners left on base.

In the first two weeks of the season, several games featured anywhere from 15 (which is high but not uncommon) per team to 24-29 runners left on base per team. I don't have scientific data, but just from reading box scores for over 40 years, I think it is more common for teams to have single digit runners LOB per game.

According to Baseball Almanac, the MLB record for runners LOB for a single game is 20 by the 1956 Yankees. In my game, the Rangers left 29 runners stranded in one game and 26 runners the next. In the next series, the Mariners left 26 and 24 runners on base. Meanwhile the Cubs averaged 15.4 runners LOB across five games.

While reviewing other box scores for auto played games, numerous games had over 20 runners LOB per team, per game.

[OutS|der]

With any data involving 4 games my go to response would be small sample size and it's meaningless and will average out over the season, but when the data is record breaking numbers day after day and shattering those records by 50% then yeah something is definitely off.

Have you made ANY changes to league totals or the default setup?

[Sweed]

Lot's more context needed to try to understand what is going on. To leave that many there have to be too many baserunners to start with, no? Seeing/having a one game outlier? Maybe. Seeing this over several games? Somethings not right. I'd look at how guys were getting on base at a rate to produce enough runners to have those results.

First thought would be the obvious, League Totals and the League Total Modifiers. Was autocalc run to set the LTM's, or did you at least attempt to manually set them? If you're running with default 1.000 for the LTM's that could easily be the problem.

[lwing37]

Originally Posted by OutS|der

With any data involving 4 games my go to response would be small sample size and it's meaningless and will average out over the season, but when the data is record breaking numbers day after day and shattering those records by 50% then yeah something is definitely off.

Have you made ANY changes to league totals or the default setup?

No, I haven't made any changes at all. While browsing through the league box scores, there is at least one game each day from the start of the season where a team has left a minimum of 19 runners on base.

[lwing37]

Originally Posted by Sweed

Lot's more context needed to try to understand what is going on. To leave that many there have to be too many baserunners to start with, no? Seeing/having a one game outlier? Maybe. Seeing this over several games? Somethings not right. I'd look at how guys were getting on base at a rate to produce enough runners to have those results.

First thought would be the obvious, League Totals and the League Total Modifiers. Was autocalc run to set the LTM's, or did you at least attempt to manually set them? If you're running with default 1.000 for the LTM's that could easily be the problem.

I used the auto-calc of modifiers.

[lwing37]

Originally Posted by lwing37

No, I haven't made any changes at all. While browsing through the league box scores, there is at least one game each day from the start of the season where a team has left a minimum of 19 runners on base.

Okay, you made me think about how the runners are getting on base. In one game I just checked, the game log indicated the Mariners left 12 runners on base but the box score shows 26 runners LOB. So I will continue comparing box scores to game logs but right now, it appears the box scores are not recording accurate results.

[David Watts]

When you get a chance take a look at another boxscore. Look at the last thing listed under the batting section of the boxscore(this is where the boxscore shows double, triples, home runs etc.), the last thing listed should be Team LOB. I think that number is what you're looking for. I for the life of me have never understood the LOB's listed in the actual boxscore for each individual player. It's probably really obvious and will make me smack myself in the forehead, but I do that quite a bit anyway.

[Simmo13]

Is the confusion caused by the "team LOB" near the bottom of the box score which is different from the "left on base by each individual hitter" which is the column after each hitter's R /H / RBI etc? just a thought.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by David Watts

When you get a chance take a look at another boxscore. Look at the last thing listed under the batting section of the boxscore(this is where the boxscore shows double, triples, home runs etc.), the last thing listed should be Team LOB. I think that number is what you're looking for. I for the life of me have never understood the LOB's listed in the actual boxscore for each individual player. It's probably really obvious and will make me smack myself in the forehead, but I do that quite a bit anyway.

Originally Posted by Simmo13

Is the confusion caused by the "team LOB" near the bottom of the box score which is different from the "left on base by each individual hitter" which is the column after each hitter's R /H / RBI etc? just a thought.

With him using autocalc I'm thinking this is where the problem is. He's looking at the total for the LOB column in the batter's list, and not the "team total" in the section under the lineup that David mentions.

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by Simmo13

Is the confusion caused by the "team LOB" near the bottom of the box score which is different from the "left on base by each individual hitter" which is the column after each hitter's R /H / RBI etc? just a thought.

It's this.

The team LOB total is at the bottom of the box score. Adding up the player total is not the way to determine the team total. If a team loads the bases with no outs and the next three guys strike out, that's three LOB per batter (nine if you add them up), but only three LOB for the team.

OP says that teams averaged 24-29 LOB per game. In a nine-inning game, you can only leave a maximum of 27 on base (three per inning), so OP is definitely looking at the wrong LOB number.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by BIG17EASY

It's this.

The team LOB total is at the bottom of the box score. Adding up the player total is not the way to determine the team total. If a team loads the bases with no outs and the next three guys strike out, that's three LOB per batter (nine if you add them up), but only three LOB for the team.

OP says that teams averaged 24-29 LOB per game. In a nine-inning game, you can only leave a maximum of 27 on base (three per inning), so OP is definitely looking at the wrong LOB number.

Yep this is what I understand it to be. It does seem to be a singularly useless stat to include in a box score, when so many others are available.

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by RchW

Yep this is what I understand it to be. It does seem to be a singularly useless stat to include in a box score, when so many others are available.

I would say it's useless to add up the individual LOB per batter. It's interesting to see if a particular batter left a bunch of guys on base himself, but the only cumulative LOB number that matters is the team total in the bottom portion of the box score.

[lwing37]

Originally Posted by David Watts

When you get a chance take a look at another boxscore. Look at the last thing listed under the batting section of the boxscore(this is where the boxscore shows double, triples, home runs etc.), the last thing listed should be Team LOB. I think that number is what you're looking for. I for the life of me have never understood the LOB's listed in the actual boxscore for each individual player. It's probably really obvious and will make me smack myself in the forehead, but I do that quite a bit anyway.

Ahhh, yes that is where I was looking at LOB. I was looking at each individual player which is added up at the bottom of the boxscore.


My bad! Problem solved. I just smacked myself in the head.


Thanks everyone for your input.

[TomVeal]

But you have called attention to the absurdity of summing the individual batters' LOB's, which is a meaningless number. It ought to be omitted from the box score.

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by TomVeal

But you have called attention to the absurdity of summing the individual batters' LOB's, which is a meaningless number. It ought to be omitted from the box score.

Definitely agree that it's meaningless. My guess is OOTP includes the sum of the individual LOB because it's included in most box scores in real life. And by most, I mean MLB.com, which is the only place I checked before posting this.

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by RchW

Yep this is what I understand it to be. It does seem to be a singularly useless stat to include in a box score, when so many others are available.

To the extent that LOB has any use, period, I like having the number for each individual batter. If a guy strikes out with the bases loaded and 1 out and the next guy hits a grand slam, the first guy still, individually, left 3 guys on base.

[OutS|der]

Originally Posted by BIG17EASY

It's this.

The team LOB total is at the bottom of the box score. Adding up the player total is not the way to determine the team total. If a team loads the bases with no outs and the next three guys strike out, that's three LOB per batter (nine if you add them up), but only three LOB for the team.

OP says that teams averaged 24-29 LOB per game. In a nine-inning game, you can only leave a maximum of 27 on base (three per inning), so OP is definitely looking at the wrong LOB number.

"Left On Base (LOB)
Definition
Left on base can be viewed as both an individual statistic or as a team statistic.

In an individual batter's case, it refers to how many men remain on base after that batter makes an out at the plate, as the batter has failed to do his job to score those runners -- or at least put himself in a position to score.

In a team's case or in an individual pitcher's case, it refers to the number of men who remain on base at the end of an inning.

LOB can be a very circumstantial statistic on a game-by-game basis. But the best teams are usually good at finding a way to get runners home once they've reached base."

This is very confusing. So runner at first, batter hits a single to advance the runner to 2nd or 3rd and he gets a LOB?

At the very least I would of assume it would only count for runners in scoring position.

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by OutS|der

In an individual batter's case, it refers to how many men remain on base after that batter makes an out at the plate, as the batter has failed to do his job to score those runners -- or at least put himself in a position to score.

Originally Posted by OutS|der

This is very confusing. So runner at first, batter hits a single to advance the runner to 2nd or 3rd and he gets a LOB?

You answered your own question.

[dbl4868]

Are you referring to total left on base by each batter in the lineup or the total team left on base?


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