Strategy Settings (Garlon & Others)

[Garlon]

Remember you can always see the neutralized stats under the real stats for each player.

Maris Real: 61 HR/590 AB = 57 HR/550 AB

Maris Neutralized: 56 HR/590 AB = 53 HR/550 AB


Mantle Real 54 HR/514 AB = 58 HR/550 AB

Mantle Neutralized: 57 HR/514 AB = 61 HR/550 AB

The reason you may be seeing that they do not scale exactly to what you expect per 550 AB is possible because how the game assigns the L/R values.

Notice that per 550 AB I have Mantle at 61 and Maris at 53, a difference of 8 in favor of Mantle, whereas what you show has Mantle at 64 and Maris at 55, a difference of 9 HR, so basically the same thing.

Keep in mind that the park factors for Maris and Mantle in 1961 were slightly different since Mantle batted switch and Maris batted left. This adjustment was built into the neutralized stats themselves. I did the process. I am not seeing anything here that shows any improper adjustments are being made by the game. The game simply assumes Maris is going to face more RHP in the standard environment and that is why the expectation is 55 HR per 550 AB instead of 53 HR per 550 AB that the neutralized statistics provide.

[Garlon]

When you use 5yr recalc with my suggestion of 200/67 for batters the game sums all of the player stats from the focus season, plus the two years before and after and checks if the sum of the AB is 200*5 = 1000 total AB. If a player had 900 AB over those seasons then OOTP will take those 900 AB and add in another 100 adjusted AB to make the 1000 AB and then create the ratings. So in a given season a player may have only had 125 AB, but as long as they had 1000 or more AB across 5 seasons there will be no adjustment made because they meet the requirement.

[thehef]

Originally Posted by Garlon

When you use 5yr recalc with my suggestion of 200/67 for batters the game sums all of the player stats from the focus season, plus the two years before and after and checks if the sum of the AB is 200*5 = 1000 total AB. If a player had 900 AB over those seasons then OOTP will take those 900 AB and add in another 100 adjusted AB to make the 1000 AB and then create the ratings. So in a given season a player may have only had 125 AB, but as long as they had 1000 or more AB across 5 seasons there will be no adjustment made because they meet the requirement.

So, if I'm understanding, if a player has 1000 AB's over the 5 seasons (that 5-year recalc looks at), then it doesn't matter if some of those seasons were really low AB's. The game will not adjust/weaken him in any of those five seasons. Correct?

And if a player has 900 AB's, his ratings for all five seasons will be based on (mostly... 90%) un-adjusted stats. Correct?

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Garlon

Remember you can always see the neutralized stats under the real stats for each player.

Maris Real: 61 HR/590 AB = 57 HR/550 AB

Maris Neutralized: 56 HR/590 AB = 53 HR/550 AB


Mantle Real 54 HR/514 AB = 58 HR/550 AB

Mantle Neutralized: 57 HR/514 AB = 61 HR/550 AB

The reason you may be seeing that they do not scale exactly to what you expect per 550 AB is possible because how the game assigns the L/R values.

Notice that per 550 AB I have Mantle at 61 and Maris at 53, a difference of 8 in favor of Mantle, whereas what you show has Mantle at 64 and Maris at 55, a difference of 9 HR, so basically the same thing.

Keep in mind that the park factors for Maris and Mantle in 1961 were slightly different since Mantle batted switch and Maris batted left. This adjustment was built into the neutralized stats themselves. I did the process. I am not seeing anything here that shows any improper adjustments are being made by the game. The game simply assumes Maris is going to face more RHP in the standard environment and that is why the expectation is 55 HR per 550 AB instead of 53 HR per 550 AB that the neutralized statistics provide.

The editor assigns the overall average rating by weighting L/R values on the basis of 75% of the ABs being vs right handed pitchers. This isn't quite correct on a league wide basis, which is 70ish percent last time I calculated it. So there was a decision made for the editor to go with a 3 to 1 ratio rather than 2 to 1 for averaging purposes.

Maris had 70.0% of his ABs against RHP while Mantle had 67.5% of his ABs against RHP so neither one matches the assumption used for the overall rating in the editor.

If Mantle was at a disadvantage batting right handed in a left handers park then that disadvantage would occur in presumably half of his 167 ABs batting right handed. 84 ABs.

He might be expected to hit 8 HRs in those at bats. As far as I know it's not been stated what park factors were used to create the neutralized stats file, so it's not possible to calculate the effect of park factors in the neutralized file. However looking at the factors in era_ballparks batting right handed in Yankee Stadium may have cost him a home run. (That's "one"_)

I can't estimate what comparative advantage exists in expected HRs in the editor however it's clear both players ratings are boosted by editor's assumed L/R ratio.

In aggregate none of these factors are sufficient to explain a plus 8 or 9 HR advantage for Mantle when he should have a 6 or 7 HR deficit.

[Garlon]

This is mantle from an 1871-2020 game I have played over the last week with neutralized stats 5yr recalc and trades disabled.

Mantle Real: .298/.420/.557

Mantle should not have any deficit compared to Maris. Mantle 58 per 550 AB and Maris 57 HR per 550 AB in 1961. Yankee Stadium was advantageous for LHB compared to RHB. For LHB I used the LHB factors and for RHB I used the RHB factors and for switch hitters I used the Overall factor for the stadium.

[Brad K]

I think it's generally understood that three and five year averaging smooths the peaks and valleys and gives reasonable career performance with considerable variation on year by year performance. Career performance isn't the subject.

However I'm curious why his performance is so close to actual playing in a different ball park.

[Garlon]

I suggest trying the neutralized stats for your games.

Dave Kingman Real: .236/.302/.478

[Brad K]

How is it that Mantle and Kingman generated stats so close to real life while playing in different home ballparks?

[Garlon]

The original question was about settings. I set up a completely neutral environment to test that. So I was using neutral park factors and neutralized stats for player ratings

Setting it up again to do the entire test over with park factors is easy though. But if I did it with park factors then when I posted results then we may not know if we are looking at the effect of the settings I proposed or the park factors regarding player results.

Why is there a concern regarding the park factors? We have brand new park factors for Bats R and Bats L based on discrete and I have a new version of the quadratic factors that I can post to the workshop too.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Garlon

The original question was about settings. I set up a completely neutral environment to test that. So I was using neutral park factors and neutralized stats for player ratings

That information doesn't address the original question about settings.

No matter how much useful information is provided some will notice the actual questions remain unanswered.

[thehef]

There are a few different directions this thread has taken (not a complaint - it's fascinating stuff), but I just wanted to revisit a few subjects/questions so they don't get lost in the sauce... I believe these questions are for Garlon, but anyone should feel free to take a crack at 'em...

The preface:

Originally Posted by Garlon

When you use 5yr recalc with my suggestion of 200/67 for batters the game sums all of the player stats from the focus season, plus the two years before and after and checks if the sum of the AB is 200*5 = 1000 total AB. If a player had 900 AB over those seasons then OOTP will take those 900 AB and add in another 100 adjusted AB to make the 1000 AB and then create the ratings. So in a given season a player may have only had 125 AB, but as long as they had 1000 or more AB across 5 seasons there will be no adjustment made because they meet the requirement.

The questions...

Originally Posted by thehef

So, if I'm understanding, if a player has 1000 AB's over the 5 seasons (that 5-year recalc looks at), then it doesn't matter if some of those seasons were really low AB's. The game will not adjust/weaken him in any of those five seasons. Correct?

And if a player has 900 AB's, his ratings for all five seasons will be based on (mostly... 90%) un-adjusted stats. Correct?

Also, what of L/R splits? If a player is over the threshold for total AB's, but has minimal AB's vs LHP, is he only adjusted/weakened on his AB's vs LHP, or is he not adjust vs LHP because total AB's exceed the threshold?

Also this, regarding the ability to edit/input stats...

Originally Posted by thehef

So it sounds like what you're saying is that OOTP provides a mechanism to input stats in order to have those create ratings. However, that mechanism is not for inputting real stats. And thus rendering the function nearly useless, unless is able to convert real stats to something that aligns with whatever OOTP is doing with those real stats?

So, getting back to my example of playing with 1-year recalc but wanting to do a "what if Buckner, Russell, and John were healthy on the 1975 Dodgers" and my plan was to take an average of their real life 1974 and 1976 stats, near as I can tell there are only two ways to do this:

1) Create test games of the 1974 and 1976 seasons and see what OOTP's Resulting Stats... are for the 3 players in question and then average those, and input them into my 1975 game, or...
2) Average the real 1974 & 1976 stats for those 3 players and then find some way of converting them to match whatever OOTP is doing to come up with "Resulting Stats..."

Correct? Or is there some other less-arduous way?


And then of course the are still answers to be provided to these...

Originally Posted by thehef

I don't know that these have been specifically answered, but I'd like to know the following:

- If you are using real transactions (thus, players playing in the same ballparks as in real life) and real stats, then the affect will be...

- If you are using real transactions (thus, players playing in the same ballparks as in real life) and neutralized stats, then the affect will be...

- If you are not using real transactions (thus, players not necessarily playing in the same ballparks as in real life) and are using real stats, then the affect will be...

- If you are not using real transactions (thus, players not necessarily playing in the same ballparks as in real life) and are using neutralized stats, then the affect will be...

The middle ground between the first two above & last two above is when you don't have historical txns but have players importing to their actual/historical teams. Then you end up with many - but not all - guys playing in their actual home parks.

Can anyone clarify this?

Answers to these would be enormously helpful to a) those simply considering how best to setup their historical game, and b) those would want to test historical scenarios but want to have a general idea of what to expect, what to look for, etc.

For examples, one of the answers might be "... you are most-likely to get results that are closest to real life..." or "... you are most-likely to get results that would reflect if all players were playing in the same park..."

I'm not suggesting that either of those example-answers would apply, but just as examples, I think answers along those lines - brief, simple, pithy - would be a good starting point.

Thanks in advance!

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Garlon

The original question was about settings. I set up a completely neutral environment to test that. So I was using neutral park factors and neutralized stats for player ratings

You're promoting how close to reality players are in your save.

A guy hit 30 HRs real life. His home park was hitter friendly so he gets neutralized to 26. So you put him him with that neutralized rating into a neutral environment and he hits 30. Like what?

[Garlon]

The game will be using the park factors regardless of whether you select neutralized stats or real stats when you create the game. The difference is that with real stats an additional HR power reduction is applied to players so that single season HR totals are not too extreme. I think this was done because the default import settings of 300/50 for batters really ends up adjusting most players in the league to a degree which diverts more HR to the regular players. The adjustment somewhat counteracts that effect. I suggest trying a league with neutralized stats but lowering the batters import for single season replays to like 150/50 or maybe even lower.

I strongly suggest using neutralized statistics for career leagues and suggest using 5yr recalc with it. For replays if you like your results with real stats then use that for your games.

[David Watts]

Originally Posted by Garlon

The game will be using the park factors regardless of whether you select neutralized stats or real stats when you create the game. The difference is that with real stats an additional HR power reduction is applied to players so that single season HR totals are not too extreme. I think this was done because the default import settings of 300/50 for batters really ends up adjusting most players in the league to a degree which diverts more HR to the regular players. The adjustment somewhat counteracts that effect. I suggest trying a league with neutralized stats but lowering the batters import for single season replays to like 150/50 or maybe even lower.

I strongly suggest using neutralized statistics for career leagues and suggest using 5yr recalc with it. For replays if you like your results with real stats then use that for your games.

I've never really used Neutralized stats, but these threads have peaked my interest. Problem is, I keep having issues trying to create leagues using them. I've tried creating 1901 several times with Neutralized stats and every single time the game crashes to desktop. It does this when the game gets to the import players portion of the setup.

I also tried to create a random debut with neutralized stats. The game allowed me to do so if I set the minimum to 1901, but if I didn't it would crash to desktop the same as above.

Also, I know way back when you used neutralized stats there was a tab under real stats that showed the players neutered stats. I can no longer find that.

[Syd Thrift]

One big potential issue with playing deadball era games using neutralized stats is that the AI will still build lineups based on modern thinking, i.e. putting your best power guy at the cleanup position. If you use non-neutralized stats (or the equivalent for fictional league, which is to use the PCMs), the AI correctly sees that a guy with 22 Power isn't really that much better than a guy with 19 Power and will use other criteria to play them or put them in lineups, but if you neutralize them you could wind up with some .220 hitter batting cleanup for you because they have the raw power to hit 9 homeruns in a season.

[Garlon]

The neutralized stats are not converted to modern era or anything like that. They are simply adjusting for park effects and as I have mentioned for the bulk of the players their neutralized statistics are very similar because park effects are not nearly as significant as what people think they are.

[Reed]

Originally Posted by Garlon

The neutralized stats are not converted to modern era or anything like that. They are simply adjusting for park effects and as I have mentioned for the bulk of the players their neutralized statistics are very similar because park effects are not nearly as significant as what people think they are.

Okay, that might explain a question I have, and I have some others.

1. I was setting up a new league last night starting 1901 using neutralized stats. I compared a couple batters real vs neutralized stats and there was minor differences as expected but then checked a couple pitchers (Cy Young, Kid Nichols) and their real/neutralized stats were the same (whip, hits allowed, etc.). I was expecting some differences.

2. I think somewhere you mentioned that L/R splits are available back to 1901. Do you anticipate they will be available in game next year?

3. You say you have stats available from your league for about all the players that you can compare their OOTP stats from your league to their real stats (real or real neutral stats?). For your test league with these stats do you use
A. Real stats and park factors.
B. Real stats and neutral park factors
C. Neutral stats and park factors or.
D. Neutral stats and neutral park factors.

4. Finally, I hear talk about using a 750 or 730 run environment. Is that so they can compare players from various eras? Do you use one of the above for Neutralized stats? Does Markus uses something similar to come up with ratings and the the league modifiers adjusts it for the specific year???

PS, again, thanks for all your input on the game, your work has made it better.

[David Watts]

Originally Posted by Reed

Okay, that might explain a question I have, and I have some others.

1. I was setting up a new league last night starting 1901 using neutralized stats. I compared a couple batters real vs neutralized stats and there was minor differences as expected but then checked a couple pitchers (Cy Young, Kid Nichols) and their real/neutralized stats were the same (whip, hits allowed, etc.). I was expecting some differences.

2. I think somewhere you mentioned that L/R splits are available back to 1901. Do you anticipate they will be available in game next year?

3. You say you have stats available from your league for about all the players that you can compare their OOTP stats from your league to their real stats (real or real neutral stats?). For your test league with these stats do you use
A. Real stats and park factors.
B. Real stats and neutral park factors
C. Neutral stats and park factors or.
D. Neutral stats and neutral park factors.

4. Finally, I hear talk about using a 750 or 730 run environment. Is that so they can compare players from various eras? Do you use one of the above for Neutralized stats? Does Markus uses something similar to come up with ratings and the the league modifiers adjusts it for the specific year???

PS, again, thanks for all your input on the game, your work has made it better.

I'm really wondering if there's something wrong with my game. Where are you seeing the Neutralized stats? I can't find them anywhere in my game. Plus, when I try to set up 1901 using Neutralized stats the game crashes to desktop. Can you screenshot where you are seeing the players neutralized stats? This is driving me nuts.

[Reed]

I am old and can’t figure out screenshots. Please forgive me.
I do know that the only way I can see neutralized stats is at the very beginning when you create a league there is a setting where you can select real or neutral stats. If you want to see neutral stats, (it is the same time where it asks if you want to use 1 or 3 or entire career for fielding and pitcher stamina) you have to select it at this time. If you WAIT until the league is created and then go into the history tab and select base ratings on neutralize stats, THAT IS TO LATE. Has to be during league creation. After creating the league you can select player, select tab for real life tabs and then you have options to select real batting, real fielding, neutralize batting, neutralized pitching. If you selected neutralized stats during league creation, you should see their neutralized stats when you click one of the neutralized tabs otherwise it just shows zero stats. I have never had the game crash on me at this point so don’t know what to say about that. Maybe someone else can chime in. Hope this helps.

[David Watts]

Originally Posted by Reed

I am old and can’t figure out screenshots. Please forgive me.
I do know that the only way I can see neutralized stats is at the very beginning when you create a league there is a setting where you can select real or neutral stats. If you want to see neutral stats, (it is the same time where it asks if you want to use 1 or 3 or entire career for fielding and pitcher stamina) you have to select it at this time. If you WAIT until the league is created and then go into the history tab and select base ratings on neutralize stats, THAT IS TO LATE. Has to be during league creation. After creating the league you can select player, select tab for real life tabs and then you have options to select real batting, real fielding, neutralize batting, neutralized pitching. If you selected neutralized stats during league creation, you should see their neutralized stats when you click one of the neutralized tabs otherwise it just shows zero stats. I have never had the game crash on me at this point so don’t know what to say about that. Maybe someone else can chime in. Hope this helps.

Something has to be wrong with my game. As far as I can tell, I don't have those options available under the real life stats. All I have is the real life stats, no tabs for neutralized. I wonder how this can happen. I guess I could do a complete reinstall. Then again, I'm not sure it's all that important to me Thanks for your help by the way.