Is this why the ERA is low?

[WhiskyTango]

Phillies scored 5 runs in the 5th, 4 earned. Yet the Nuke shows 1 ER.

[WhiskyTango]

I can make the game files available if anyone wants to see for himself. Or if a dev could comment/take interest? Seems like this isn't the first time I've seen something like this but it so little matters to me I haven't commented. I thought perhaps it could be a cosmetic / presentation error but no, his stats were adjusted accordingly.

[LansdowneSt]

Originally Posted by WhiskyTango

Phillies scored 5 runs in the 5th, 4 earned. Yet the Nuke shows 1 ER.

On my first read, I scored it 3 earned and 2 unearned. Coleman who reached via an E is unearned when he crosses the plate and the HR is unearned because had Coleman been out, the inning would have ended before that AB came into play. Hartsfield trying to score should have been the third out.

I still can't explain why it's just one ER in the game though...

[WhiskyTango]

Originally Posted by LansdowneSt

On my first read, I scored it 3 earned and 2 unearned. Coleman who reached via an E is unearned when he crosses the plate and the HR is unearned because had Coleman been out, the inning would have ended before that AB came into play. Hartsfield trying to score should have been the third out.

I still can't explain why it's just one ER in the game though...

I read Coleman would have been the 2nd out, so the inning would not have ended. Your reading may very well be right, but I thought that applied when the error applies directly to saving the 3rd out.


A bit of research seems to confirm your interpretation:


from https://milkeespress.com/unearnedruns.pdf

Charlesworth leads off with a walk and steals second. Dancer hits a grounder to third. Charlesworth
goes to third as the third baseman throws to first. The throw is wild. Charlesworth continues home on the
error while Dancer reaches second (a two-base throwing error on the third baseman). Evers strikes out.
Frisch walks. Gibson doubles, scoring Dancer with Frisch stopping at third. Heisler hits a sacrifice fly to
left, Frisch scoring. Ivie grounds out. Which runs are earned and which are unearned?
Charlesworth’s run is earned. Her run was originally unearned, but it became earned after Gibson’s
double. Gibson’s double scored Dancer, which was an unearned run because Dancer had reached base on
an error. Frisch scored on Heisler’s fly, an unearned run because the fly out would have been the third out
of the inning if not for the error.


I learned something new about baseball today !


Anyway, this is perhaps likely where the algorithm glitch resides - it's not carrying some 1s when calculating the number of earned runs against when the 3rd out would have occurred.

[Westheim]

I count three earned runs, all on Feller's bases-clearing double. (Feller is the one that is out on the bases, not Hartsfield)

However, the game scores ZERO earned runs for the inning, because Feller hits a 2-out solo homer in the seventh - how's that gonna be unearned?

[WhiskyTango]

To recap, in the vein of milkeespress --

Clark pops up for the first out. Coleman reaches on a rocket to shortstop, Irvin couldn't find the handle, scored an error. Next at bat Boyer hammers one out into RF. Coleman with elite speed actually beats the throw from West. Surprised Boyer didn't try for second on the throw to the plate, perhaps the throw from West was short. That's the first unearned run. Zimmer's next and hits a squib past the mound towards 2B. Cardinal's Smith charges it but can't get to it in time. All runners safe. With runners on first and second Hartsfield's next and puts on a nice bit of a clinic on keeping the count alive, eventually earning a walk. Bases loaded. One out. One unearned run is in. At this point every runner represents a potential ER. All-star Bob Feller of all people (who the very next day was dealt to the Giants) splits the inning open with a one out shot into the gap in right center. Scoring easily are Boyer and Zimmer. Hartsfield got the green light from 3rd base coach Red Oldham, willing to test for the second time in the inning the arm of 35 year old Max West (a former Phillie). West's elite arm vs Hartsfield's elite speed. West still has one of the best arms from the right side and opts instead to throw down the much slower Feller trying to leg a double into a triple. Feller is no match for West and is tagged and bagged at third by at least a step for the second out. Hartsfield crosses the plate. That's the fourth run, three of them earned. Two out. Bases empty. The follow up solo HR by underperforming second baseman Clyde Vollmer is scored apparently an unearned run as Feller's failed attempt to reach third would have been the inning-ending third out if not for the error on Coleman. HOWEVER, I would argue that VERY likely Feller would not have tried for third base if there were two outs when he was running the bases. I suppose that doesn't figure into the ruling but it seems to be yet another case where the stat in the book does not reflect the decisions on the field.

But either way, Newcombe got charged 1 ER over 7 innings, dropping his ERA from 4.83 to 4.56.

[WhiskyTango]

Originally Posted by Westheim

However, the game scores ZERO earned runs for the inning, because Feller hits a 2-out solo homer in the seventh - how's that gonna be unearned?

Now that you mention it, just noticed the other HR...!

[Mifr44]

I don't think an official scorer would have considered this, but what if the software thinks the grounder between 1st and 2nd (Boyer) would have been covered by the 2nd baseman had there not been a runner on 1st (Coleman, who reached by error) or maybe by the 1st baseman who was at the bag holding the runner on.

Maybe there was a hit-and-run or stolen base attempt, with the 2nd baseman going to cover behind the bag at 2nd, only to have the grounder go through the right side of the infield near the usual bases empty fielding position. Maybe that would have been the 3rd out. Other than that, no clue.

[zappa1]

https://copilot.microsoft.com/shares...Jvb7UA1RzZ9QB5

I thought I might ask copilot what it thought. It seams to think that 4 of those 5 runs are earned.

Here is something I don't understand though. Feller is thrown out at third by West. Trying to move up on the throw or trying for a triple. If there was no error this would have been the third out. If so, Vollmer's solo homerun is also unearned. No?

[WhiskyTango]

Originally Posted by zappa1

https://copilot.microsoft.com/shares...Jvb7UA1RzZ9QB5

I thought I might ask copilot what it thought. It seams to think that 4 of those 5 runs are earned.

"... earned‑run logic always hinges on reconstructing the inning as if the defense made no errors."


Keeping in mind that when we say "AI" we are referring to its database which is the web. Iow, this is what most people who write articles on the subject would agree with. I guarantee that most baseball fans count errors the same way - that the runner reaching on error does not exist:

2. Second batter

• Reaches on an error.
  This is the key event.
  Runner on first, 1 out — but in the reconstructed inning, this runner does NOT exist.

Obviously by not existing the - runs are unearned if scored after what would have been the 3rd out - rule cannot apply.


And in certain situations - like this present one - the ruling makes no sense since the number of outs typically impacts decision-making - like trying for 3rd when there are one out vs two. Feller would have held up at 2B if he actually represented the final out and the run at home would have counted as an earned run all things remaining equal (meaning Hartsfield arrived safe at home).

[zappa1]

All this has got me thinking about official scorers. This is what I found out.


How MLB Selects an Official Scorer.
Who appoints them?

The Office of the Commissioner appoints official scorers for all MLB games.
Scorers are league employees, not team employees.
Each MLB city typically has a local pool of scorers who rotate assignments.

How are scorers chosen for each game?

MLB Data Operations schedules scorers from the local pool.
Assignments are made before the season and adjusted as needed.
Scorers work only in their home ballpark (e.g., a Philadelphia scorer works Phillies home games).

[joefromchicago]

Originally Posted by Westheim

I count three earned runs, all on Feller's bases-clearing double. (Feller is the one that is out on the bases, not Hartsfield)

However, the game scores ZERO earned runs for the inning, because Feller hits a 2-out solo homer in the seventh - how's that gonna be unearned?

Yeah, that's how I see it too.

Usually, it's not difficult to figure out where the game goes wrong in calculating earned runs. For instance, it really struggles with a batter who reaches base on an error and then is eliminated on a fielder's choice. In routine situations, however, the game is usually good, which is why this result is surprising, because it's pretty easy to recreate the inning without the error. Coleman reached on an error and scored on the next play. That run is definitely unearned and that error is now off the basepaths. After that, it is simply a question of how many runs are scored after the second out, and it's the Vollmer home run. Three earned runs, two unearned. Easy peasy. The game AI just plain whiffed on this one.

[kq76]

Just so I'm clear in my own thinking here...

Coleman's is unearned because he got on base via error. That's simple enough.

Vollmer's solo home run should also be unearned because the batter before him, Feller, would have been the third out had Coleman also been out.

And the rest are all earned. That's correct, right?

I'm just unclear on whether we're supposed to imagine Coleman had been an out or whether we're just supposed to imagine his PA didn't exist at all, no run / no out / nothing.

[Westheim]

As usual, AI is full of horse droppings when it thinks that a runner that reaches on an error is removed from consideration when reconstructing the inning. It's obviously not like that.

For illustration, a simplified inning -

Batter 1: out
Batter 2: out
Batter 3: reaches on error
Batter 4: home run

If Batter 3 was sorta imaginary, then one of the runs (Batter 4's) would be earned:

Batter 1: out
Batter 2: out
Batter 4: home run

Of course in reality, both runs are unearned because Batter 3 is considered to have been the third out.

God, I hate AI.

[joefromchicago]

Originally Posted by kq76

Just so I'm clear in my own thinking here...

Coleman's is unearned because he got on base via error. That's simple enough.

Vollmer's solo home run should also be unearned because the batter before him, Feller, would have been the third out had Coleman also been out.

And the rest are all earned. That's correct, right?

I'm just unclear on whether we're supposed to imagine Coleman had been an out or whether we're just supposed to imagine his PA didn't exist at all, no run / no out / nothing.

You reconstruct the inning where there was no error and Coleman was out. So yes, Vollmer's home run is unearned because Feller would have been the third out of the inning but for the error. The other three runs are earned because they would have scored even if Coleman had been out and they scored with less than two outs.*


*I suppose technically it's possible that the fourth run might have been unearned if the runner crossed home plate after Feller had been thrown out at third, although that probably depends on whether the throw to third came directly from the outfielder or from an infielder/catcher.

[WestCoastGuy]

Aren't there two earned runs? The first batter gets out. The second batter gets out in our recreation or a non-error inning. The third batter singles. The fourth batter singles. The fifth batter walks. And, with the bases loaded, the sixth batter has a two-RBI double, during which one of the runners is thrown out for the third out of our recreated inning.

[kq76]

Originally Posted by WestCoastGuy

Aren't there two earned runs? The first batter gets out. The second batter gets out in our recreation or a non-error inning. The third batter singles. The fourth batter singles. The fifth batter walks. And, with the bases loaded, the sixth batter has a two-RBI double, during which one of the runners is thrown out for the third out of our recreated inning.

Three runs score on the double, the batter is out trying to stretch the double into a triple. The last line of that PA mentions the third run is safe and the out. It's easy to miss, those two actions should probably be on separate lines.

[WestCoastGuy]

Originally Posted by kq76

Three runs score on the double, the batter is out trying to stretch the double into a triple. The last line of that PA mentions the third run is safe and the out. It's easy to miss, those two actions should probably be on separate lines.

Got it. Thank you. I misread that final line.