Rookies - Potential Overpowered

[JbergTexas]

In my rookie draft pools, the rookies have sky high potentials. There are 18 players with 4.5+ stars and so many with potential 80 contact and 80 power. These would be hall of fame level players.... I would like to see some high potential players, but the amount is way too many. Why are they being scouted with such high potential?

[kq76]

It could be different things. Maybe your league has a lower level of talent than your settings say it should have and it's now trying to make up for it. Maybe you just have a scout who thinks everybody is awesome. I don't know, others may have more ideas.

[sutnopia]

Originally Posted by JbergTexas

In my rookie draft pools, the rookies have sky high potentials. There are 18 players with 4.5+ stars and so many with potential 80 contact and 80 power. These would be hall of fame level players.... I would like to see some high potential players, but the amount is way too many. Why are they being scouted with such high potential?

This is not an issue if asking me. Every year, in every draft, in every sport (including baseball) there are high praise of many prospects - but how many pan out / reach that high (potential), potential?
Start a new save, sim x seasons in to the future, go to historic draft classes and see that it varies from draft class to draft class and season to season how strong a specific draft is. But it's never as strong class as it seems before the actual draft.
This and many other parts of the game is fantastic if you ask me. There are so many variables in this game. Things that makes it unpredictable (to varying degrees) and therefore more realistic.

In my opinion

[MathBandit]

I know this is a discussion we've had a lot in many different places, but I think part of the potential (heh) confusion is regarding what "Potential" actually means in OOTP Scouting parlance.

Is it the 50th percentile outcome for the player (their 'average' result)? Is it their 80th percentile outcome ('very good' result)? Is it the 95th percentile outcome (almost 'peak' result)?

If its 50th percentile outcome, then I agree that the vast majority of prospects in the draft should have meh potentials, but then you'd have people upset that in the first round there's only a couple 60s and everyone else is 55 or below. If its 95th percentile outcome then sure a lot of people have very high potentials, but only 5% of them will ever reach that so dev reports will have a LOT of 'failures' as potentials drop left and right for basically every prospect.

[md40022]

Can't really say with baseball since they only recently started televising the drafts, but look at NBA and NFL drafts.... Every single year there are guys getting picked in middle rounds and the "experts" are making outrageous comparisons. There will be some random guard drafted in the 2nd round of the NBA draft who everyone knows will probably be nothing more than a bench player and the "experts" will say something like he has a jump shot that resembles Steph Curry or something ridiculous like that.

Point is, scouts always get giddy over potential. How often that potential is absolutely maximized is a different story.... but scouts will make it sound like guys are Hall of Famers in the making when the more likely scenario is they might be role players, if that.

[kidd_05_u2]

Originally Posted by JbergTexas

In my rookie draft pools, the rookies have sky high potentials. There are 18 players with 4.5+ stars and so many with potential 80 contact and 80 power. These would be hall of fame level players.... I would like to see some high potential players, but the amount is way too many. Why are they being scouted with such high potential?

Scouts tend to overrate players when they assign a potential value for draft-eligible players, especially those who favor tools. If you turn scouting off, you should not see more than a couple of players rated 4.5+

If you see a lot of 4.5+ players with scouting off, then you probably need to correct the player creation modifiers.

[jcard]

Originally Posted by MathBandit

I know this is a discussion we've had a lot in many different places, but I think part of the potential (heh) confusion is regarding what "Potential" actually means in OOTP Scouting parlance.

Is it the 50th percentile outcome for the player (their 'average' result)? Is it their 80th percentile outcome ('very good' result)? Is it the 95th percentile outcome (almost 'peak' result)?

If its 50th percentile outcome, then I agree that the vast majority of prospects in the draft should have meh potentials, but then you'd have people upset that in the first round there's only a couple 60s and everyone else is 55 or below. If its 95th percentile outcome then sure a lot of people have very high potentials, but only 5% of them will ever reach that so dev reports will have a LOT of 'failures' as potentials drop left and right for basically every prospect.

This is indeed the issue that needs to be conclusively addressed first..