WAR is funny sometimes

pgjocki · 12-25-2022, 11:16 PM

So it's 2025 and Rafael Devers has the following lines:

AVG - .270
HR - 28
RBI - 101
OBP - .335
SLG - .468
OPS - .803
OPS+ 98

WAR 0.3

How bad was he on defense?? I realize WAR isn't the only stat that matters but I would think that hitting .270 and 28 bombs would be worth more than 0.3 WAR as I can't imagine there were endless guys at AAA who could have come up and hit 30 Homeruns.

The Red Sox have also decided to cut bait with him and just traded him for a relief pitchers with no options and a career 4.58 ERA.

Syd Thrift · 12-26-2022, 01:52 AM

Whatever the offensive context of your league is, Devers is a below average hitting 1st baseman. That’s kind of the definition of replacement level, yeah. Here it’s not even so much that you can find guys in AAA who will put up numbers like that (although I’m guessing there are several minor league 1B who can post a 98 OPS+ in the majors), it’s that the position is so easy to fill that you can basically take whoever your worst fielder is on your team who can still hit and they can probably put up numbers similar to that.

That said, you have some very high offensive levels if an 803 OPS is only worth a 98. That’s going to be why it “feels” so out of place. That’s year 2000 level offense.

MathBandit · 12-26-2022, 07:55 AM

For reference (and to Syd's point), Andrew McCutchen hit .237/.316/.384 with 17 HRs last season and had a 99 OPS+, so his hitting season was *better* relative to 2022 than Devers' season was relative to your 2025.

pgjocki · 12-26-2022, 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

Whatever the offensive context of your league is, Devers is a below average hitting 1st baseman. That’s kind of the definition of replacement level, yeah. Here it’s not even so much that you can find guys in AAA who will put up numbers like that (although I’m guessing there are several minor league 1B who can post a 98 OPS+ in the majors), it’s that the position is so easy to fill that you can basically take whoever your worst fielder is on your team who can still hit and they can probably put up numbers similar to that.

That said, you have some very high offensive levels if an 803 OPS is only worth a 98. That’s going to be why it “feels” so out of place. That’s year 2000 level offense.

So I adjusted the league modifiers when I started the game because I was trying to get the guys to play baseball and not play strikeout 27 times a game. I hate the modern game and approach (personal opinion of course) and believe that the pursuit of the 3 true outcomes is awful for the fans.

I didn't record what else I changed except for lowering strikeouts as I'm just simming this league as I also set inflation at 3% so I can see how much teams spend and the impacts on overall budgets.

Syd Thrift · 12-26-2022, 12:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgjocki

So I adjusted the league modifiers when I started the game because I was trying to get the guys to play baseball and not play strikeout 27 times a game. I hate the modern game and approach (personal opinion of course) and believe that the pursuit of the 3 true outcomes is awful for the fans.

I didn't record what else I changed except for lowering strikeouts as I'm just simming this league as I also set inflation at 3% so I can see how much teams spend and the impacts on overall budgets.

So whatever you did, you put your league OPS at over 800, which is high AF.

pgjocki · 12-26-2022, 01:27 PM

At Bats - 161941
Hits - 45000
Doubles - 7900
Triples - 650
Home Runs - 5900
Bases on Balls - 15800
Hit by Pitches - 2100
Strikeouts - 39000
BABIP - .295

Lg. Avg: .278/.350/.444

pgjocki · 12-26-2022, 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgjocki

At Bats - 161941
Hits - 45000
Doubles - 7900
Triples - 650
Home Runs - 5900
Bases on Balls - 15800
Hit by Pitches - 2100
Strikeouts - 39000
BABIP - .295

Lg. Avg: .278/.350/.444

I just started a brand new MLB league to compare the settings:

At Bats - 161941
Hits - 40,000 (5,000 less)
Doubles - 7,900
Triples - 650
Home Runs - 5,900
Bases on Balls - 15,800
Hit by Pitches - 2,100
Strikeouts - 42,000 (3,000 more)
BABIP - .295

Lg. Avg: .247/.322/.413

MathBandit · 12-26-2022, 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgjocki

At Bats - 161941
Hits - 45000
Doubles - 7900
Triples - 650
Home Runs - 5900
Bases on Balls - 15800
Hit by Pitches - 2100
Strikeouts - 39000
BABIP - .295

Lg. Avg: .278/.350/.444

That is the highest ever SLG, and the highest AVG since 1936 and highest OBP since 1936.

12-25-2022, 11:16 PM	#1
pgjocki All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2013 Location: Maryland - just outside DC Posts: 1,585	WAR is funny sometimes So it's 2025 and Rafael Devers has the following lines: AVG - .270 HR - 28 RBI - 101 OBP - .335 SLG - .468 OPS - .803 OPS+ 98 WAR 0.3 How bad was he on defense?? I realize WAR isn't the only stat that matters but I would think that hitting .270 and 28 bombs would be worth more than 0.3 WAR as I can't imagine there were endless guys at AAA who could have come up and hit 30 Homeruns. The Red Sox have also decided to cut bait with him and just traded him for a relief pitchers with no options and a career 4.58 ERA. __________________ - - - World Series championships: 1926, 1931, 1934, 1942, 1944, 1946, 1964, 1967, 1982, 2006, 2011

12-26-2022, 01:27 PM	#6
pgjocki All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2013 Location: Maryland - just outside DC Posts: 1,585	At Bats - 161941 Hits - 45000 Doubles - 7900 Triples - 650 Home Runs - 5900 Bases on Balls - 15800 Hit by Pitches - 2100 Strikeouts - 39000 BABIP - .295 Lg. Avg: .278/.350/.444 __________________ - - - World Series championships: 1926, 1931, 1934, 1942, 1944, 1946, 1964, 1967, 1982, 2006, 2011

12-26-2022, 07:55 AM	#3
MathBandit All Star Starter Join Date: Feb 2021 Posts: 1,445	For reference (and to Syd's point), Andrew McCutchen hit .237/.316/.384 with 17 HRs last season and had a 99 OPS+, so his hitting season was better relative to 2022 than Devers' season was relative to your 2025.