Talent Change Randomness

[Dutch Alexander]

While setting up a small fictional league I'm running into a problem. The AI teams (occasionaly) keep putting 16 year olds with terrible ratings and no minor league experience on the active roster. Predictably these pitchers are absolutely plastered. See below example. Often there are older more experienced pitchers in the minors with better ratings. But for some reason the the AI insists on promoting 16-18 year old scrubs. It seems the AI pays absolutely no attention whatsoever to age and experience.

I think the problem is that the talent pool in my league is too small (no draft) and there are simply not enough competent pitchers to fill all the roster spots. (Still, even then the AI should choose older pitchers with minor league experience over 16-18 year olds with no experience). I've been experimenting with different settings to solve this problem. I've changed AI eval settings, scouting accuracy, development speed etc. but have not found a perfect solution. In my latest test I changed the TCR to 200 and this seems to work. I think what happens is that some of the scrub pitchers get a boost (with ratings bottomed out the only way is up) and the pool of competent pitchers is increased.

However I have no experience with TCR at 200 and wonder how this will function. So I have a few questions:

1.) Does anybody have experience with the TCR this high? Are there any clear downsides to this, is there a maximum TCR you should not exceed?
2.) How noticable is this, how often do you see large talent changes and how large exactly are these talent changes? Do superstars turn into scrubs and vice versa over night or are the changes more subtle?

These kind of setting changes are very difficult to test out. I think you really have to play with TCR at 200 for quite some time to observe how this actually functions. This will take a lot of time, so I'm hoping to get some feedback from players who have experimented with high TCR values.

[progen]

Originally Posted by Dutch Alexander

While setting up a small fictional league I'm running into a problem. The AI teams (occasionaly) keep putting 16 year olds with terrible ratings and no minor league experience on the active roster. Predictably these pitchers are absolutely plastered. See below example. Often there are older more experienced pitchers in the minors with better ratings. But for some reason the the AI insists on promoting 16-18 year old scrubs. It seems the AI pays absolutely no attention whatsoever to age and experience.

I think the problem is that the talent pool in my league is too small (no draft) and there are simply not enough competent pitchers to fill all the roster spots. (Still, even then the AI should choose older pitchers with minor league experience over 16-18 year olds with no experience). I've been experimenting with different settings to solve this problem. I've changed AI eval settings, scouting accuracy, development speed etc. but have not found a perfect solution. In my latest test I changed the TCR to 200 and this seems to work. I think what happens is that some of the scrub pitchers get a boost (with ratings bottomed out the only way is up) and the pool of competent pitchers is increased.

However I have no experience with TCR at 200 and wonder how this will function. So I have a few questions:

1.) Does anybody have experience with the TCR this high? Are there any clear downsides to this, is there a maximum TCR you should not exceed?
2.) How noticable is this, how often do you see large talent changes and how large exactly are these talent changes? Do superstars turn into scrubs and vice versa over night or are the changes more subtle?

These kind of setting changes are very difficult to test out. I think you really have to play with TCR at 200 for quite some time to observe how this actually functions. This will take a lot of time, so I'm hoping to get some feedback from players who have experimented with high TCR values.

Here's a thread on it. Hope this helps!
https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...nge+randomness

And here's another one that talks about "making the game harder", and touches upon TCR as well:
https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...=317611&page=2

[Dutch Alexander]

Originally Posted by progen

Here's a thread on it. Hope this helps!
https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...nge+randomness

And here's another one that talks about "making the game harder", and touches upon TCR as well:
https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...=317611&page=2

Thanks! There is some good information there. Below a discussion in the second thread about a TCR of 200.

Originally Posted by wodi

Do you find it impacting the league’s superstars? I like the theory of 200 but I’m worried it will cause change in most players, leading to you not being able to have HOF careers from some stars.

Maybe I’m just paranoid

Originally Posted by SirMichaelJordan

No, it only change talent aka potential. Superstar players are already developed.

You’ll see more early round busts and late round steals. But nothing at extreme levels.

This is one of the things I was worried about. Seems a TCR of 200 should work for me.

[kidd_05_u2]

Originally Posted by Dutch Alexander

Thanks!

This is one of the things I was worried about. Seems a TCR of 200 should work for me.

I would advise you to run your own tests. Other people in this forum say TCR affects developed players significantly.

[PSUColonel]

Most Challenging settings (while hanging on to some realism) I think are:

TCR: 200
Overall/Potential Ratings: OFF
Individual Tool Ratings: 2-8
AI Evaluation: 65/20/10/5
Trade Difficulty: Maximum
Injury Frequency: OFF


I do think if you do at least these, you will likely have a more challenging experience. Will it be perfect? Nope.

[Dutch Alexander]

Originally Posted by kidd_05_u2

I would advise you to run your own tests. Other people in this forum say TCR affects developed players significantly.

That's what frustrating sometimes. Too many options, not enough info and differing opinions.

Originally Posted by PSUColonel

Most Challenging settings (while hanging on to some realism) I think are:

TCR: 200
Overall/Potential Ratings: OFF
Individual Tool Ratings: 2-8
AI Evaluation: 65/20/10/5
Trade Difficulty: Maximum
Injury Frequency: OFF


I do think if you do at least these, you will likely have a more challenging experience. Will it be perfect? Nope.

I was thinking about:
Scouting accuracy: VERY LOW
Current Ratings: OFF
Potential Ratings: 1-5
Other Ratings: 1-5
Overall/Potential Ratings: OFF
TCR: 200
AI Evaluation: 55/18/15/12
Trade Difficulty: Maximum
Short Term Injury Frequency: HIGH
Long Term Injury Frequency: NORMAL

I might try your AI Evaluation Settings of 65/20/10/5. I do think the AI needs to rely on ratings, especially in a short season league were stats can be volatile.

[SirMichaelJordan]

Originally Posted by kidd_05_u2

I would advise you to run your own tests. Other people in this forum say TCR affects developed players significantly.

Talent refers to potential in the game. Depending on settings, players stop developing at a certain age so potential becomes irrelevant making veterans immune to any potential random drops. If a establish player randomly became a scrub it is because of things outside of TCR.

[Syd Thrift]

Vets are absolutely *not* immune to random drops. Current ratings will trend downwards if they are higher than POT no matter what the player’s age is.

I’m pretty sure that TCR, too, affects players of all ages, and it doesn’t just hit potential ratings. In real life, players sometimes develop a skill well after their considered prime and TCR adds that as a chance (as well as those cases where a player suddenly loses power or what have you).

[PSUColonel]

Originally Posted by Dutch Alexander

That's what frustrating sometimes. Too many options, not enough info and differing opinions.



I was thinking about:
Scouting accuracy: VERY LOW
Current Ratings: OFF
Potential Ratings: 1-5
Other Ratings: 1-5
Overall/Potential Ratings: OFF
TCR: 200
AI Evaluation: 55/18/15/12
Trade Difficulty: Maximum
Short Term Injury Frequency: HIGH
Long Term Injury Frequency: NORMAL

I might try your AI Evaluation Settings of 65/20/10/5. I do think the AI needs to rely on ratings, especially in a short season league were stats can be volatile.

Yup...you could absolutely go with very low scouting also. Injuries should be realistic modern day...I forgot to mention that also. I would keep too scout grades though..and I would use 2-8 (added realism)

[Syd Thrift]

I personally have TCR jacked up to I think 130 to partially counteract the high development and low aging settings I’ve got. This also messes up the AI but… I play in god mode. It’s not for everyone! Anyway I do all that based on my theory that an awful lot of “aging decline” consists of a guy having a bad season and, being older, losing his starting job and perhaps his overall job as a result. Some players can play into their 40s if they’re allowed to; I think (and this is purely my opinion) that they’re just not allowed to all that often for a variety of reasons.

[brotherblues]

I'm really curious if TCR is equally likely to hit a 20yo player as it is a 28+yo player. Ideally there's a bell curve, but I somehow doubt it's coded like that.

[PSUColonel]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

I personally have TCR jacked up to I think 130 to partially counteract the high development and low aging settings I’ve got. This also messes up the AI but… I play in god mode. It’s not for everyone! Anyway I do all that based on my theory that an awful lot of “aging decline” consists of a guy having a bad season and, being older, losing his starting job and perhaps his overall job as a result. Some players can play into their 40s if they’re allowed to; I think (and this is purely my opinion) that they’re just not allowed to all that often for a variety of reasons.

How do you feel it affects the AI? I am just going by what the developers have said…that TCR of 200 is one of the main ways to create a more challenging game. Ideally I’d like to not have to do this if possible.

[SirMichaelJordan]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

Vets are absolutely *not* immune to random drops. Current ratings will trend downwards if they are higher than POT no matter what the player’s age is.

I’m pretty sure that TCR, too, affects players of all ages, and it doesn’t just hit potential ratings. In real life, players sometimes develop a skill well after their considered prime and TCR adds that as a chance (as well as those cases where a player suddenly loses power or what have you).

That's not a TCR thing. That is most likely a scouting thing. What setting are you using to where current ratings are higher than potential ratings?

According to devs, talent is referring to potential ratings, not current ratings. If current ratings are being hit, it is because potential rating have changed, or in other words the game adjusting. TCR does not directly hit current ratings.

[jcard]

This is absurd.

In lieu of the adequate documentation one would expect, will a developer please provide an answer to the simple question of whom is affected by TCR?

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by PSUColonel

How do you feel it affects the AI? I am just going by what the developers have said…that TCR of 200 is one of the main ways to create a more challenging game. Ideally I’d like to not have to do this if possible.

It's not so much TCR that hits the AI, it's the modified aging and development curves. The AI will put the best player it can find in as your like 5th best left fielder, even if that player is 35 and even if it winds up using most of the AAA roster on 35 year olds.

[Dutch Alexander]

Even with TCR at 200 the AI insists on putting teenagers on the active roster. Granted it happens much less often but it still happens. I'm running out of ideas. I have no idea WHY the AI is doing this. And since I don't now why I have no idea what to do to prevent this. What is the cause and what is the solution? Should I change the AI eval, should I increase or decrease development speed, incease scouting accuracy? There seems to be absolutely no logic behind it and therefor I can only guess what to do. I am simply randomly changing settings and simulating seasons to see if it has an effect. I'm running in circles blindfolded.

OK, the league I "designed" is a bit unusual. A short season pro/reg league with no draft. Players enter the league mostly as scouting finds and enter the International Complex. (nothing International about it in my league, it functions as a domestic youth complex). Teams have two minor league teams. The highest team functions as a reserve team and the lowest as a talent team with an age limit of 21. Minor league free agency after three years. In practise this means all players are under team control until the end of their age 21 season. (clock doesn't start ticking until they reach there age 18 season even if they are promoted from the International complex before that.) If teams want to keep control over the player after that they have to put him on the secondary roster. I mean this is pretty basic stuff that the AI should be able to handle. Players should NEVER EVER be put on the secondary roster before the end of their age 21 season unless they are exeptional talents and ready for the first team. And 16-17 year olds on the active roster is just pure insanity. These players shouldn't even be promoted from the complex with only a few exeptions. There are plenty scrub FA to be signed to fill roster spots.

What I'm seeing now is 16-17 year olds get promoted from the complex to the lowest minors level and after just a few appearances (with often terrible ratings and stats) get promoted, often straight to the active roster, skipping the highest minors team. There should be a minimum threshhold of playing time and ratings before the AI even considers promoting players. Promoting 16-17 year olds who have basically zero stats simply shouldn't happen.

I understand that the AI will never be perfect and I understand my league setup is unsual, but still I think it should work. Maybe I'm missing something but I can't see a solution. I've reached a point were I think it might be best to just completely give up on this. I'm wasting too much of my time trying to get it to work properly, this is becoming incredibly tedious.

[PSUColonel]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

It's not so much TCR that hits the AI, it's the modified aging and development curves. The AI will put the best player it can find in as your like 5th best left fielder, even if that player is 35 and even if it winds up using most of the AAA roster on 35 year olds.

Yea...I am more inclined to leave those at the default 1.000

I am beginning to really think the more we screw around with settings, the more unclear and worse things become. I know a lot of people don't want to hear this...but I am starting to think we should find what works well, set it and forget it. And what I mean by that,, is taking the options away. OOTP is becoming a game bogged down by settings and adjustment, and isn't shining in gameplay as a result perhaps.

Too much time around here is often spent discussing settings as opposed to strategy. I am guilty the same as anyone else, but all it seems to do is create uncertainty, fog and constant tinkering rather than people actually delving into strategic nuance and enjoying the game.

[brotherblues]

We might get some answers by testing with turning off development and ageing, and max cranking tcr.

[Rain King]

Originally Posted by Dutch Alexander

Even with TCR at 200 the AI insists on putting teenagers on the active roster. Granted it happens much less often but it still happens. I'm running out of ideas. I have no idea WHY the AI is doing this. And since I don't now why I have no idea what to do to prevent this. What is the cause and what is the solution? Should I change the AI eval, should I increase or decrease development speed, incease scouting accuracy? There seems to be absolutely no logic behind it and therefor I can only guess what to do. I am simply randomly changing settings and simulating seasons to see if it has an effect. I'm running in circles blindfolded.

OK, the league I "designed" is a bit unusual. A short season pro/reg league with no draft. Players enter the league mostly as scouting finds and enter the International Complex. (nothing International about it in my league, it functions as a domestic youth complex). Teams have two minor league teams. The highest team functions as a reserve team and the lowest as a talent team with an age limit of 21. Minor league free agency after three years. In practise this means all players are under team control until the end of their age 21 season. (clock doesn't start ticking until they reach there age 18 season even if they are promoted from the International complex before that.) If teams want to keep control over the player after that they have to put him on the secondary roster. I mean this is pretty basic stuff that the AI should be able to handle. Players should NEVER EVER be put on the secondary roster before the end of their age 21 season unless they are exeptional talents and ready for the first team. And 16-17 year olds on the active roster is just pure insanity. These players shouldn't even be promoted from the complex with only a few exeptions. There are plenty scrub FA to be signed to fill roster spots.

What I'm seeing now is 16-17 year olds get promoted from the complex to the lowest minors level and after just a few appearances (with often terrible ratings and stats) get promoted, often straight to the active roster, skipping the highest minors team. There should be a minimum threshhold of playing time and ratings before the AI even considers promoting players. Promoting 16-17 year olds who have basically zero stats simply shouldn't happen.

I understand that the AI will never be perfect and I understand my league setup is unsual, but still I think it should work. Maybe I'm missing something but I can't see a solution. I've reached a point were I think it might be best to just completely give up on this. I'm wasting too much of my time trying to get it to work properly, this is becoming incredibly tedious.

I've done a somewhat similar setup in past versions without anything like that result. You might try either creating a quickstart of your league or at least taking screenshots of all of your settings and posting them to see if anyone notices something out of whack, but I'll also try to recreate what I did with my league in past versions as I have time just to see if I notice anything different also.

[Dutch Alexander]

Below a link to the league quickstart. This is the base file from which I run all my tests. There are no players and coaches at the start. When I do a test I fill all 4 leagues with fictional players and coaches and then simulate 12 seasons to get rid of the statistical "noise" and delete all leagues history.

https://app.mediafire.com/myfiles

If someone has time to look at it I would really appreciate that. Maybe there is a setting I should or shouldn't use. Maybe there is a silly mistake that I overlook. File contains the latest settings I've been using in my tests.

I've noticed that if I change the scouting rating scale from 1-5 to 2-8 and when I switch on the current rating scale things improve. With those settings it is now rare that such young players are put on the active roster. I guess with a "larger" rating scale the AI can distiguish better between players? But there still a few teams that occasionally insist on putting these players on the active roster. I could put a minimum age of 18 on the major league teams and highest level of minors but then you are fighting the symptoms instead of the disease.