Low Rated Player Long Term Superstar

bazeall · 06-23-2013, 04:42 PM

Anyone have examples of this?

Dennis O'Grady, a 25 year old SP.

SD released him in 2012 when he was a minor leaguer.

In 2015 with the 85-77 Dodgers, he was 19-5 with a 2.91 ERA, 1.3 WHIP.
So far in 2016 he's 2-1 with a 2.81 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP.

I had my scout scout him. The scout concluded half a star with a potential of 1 star.

slugga27 · 06-23-2013, 05:38 PM

It happens more than you might think. All the more reason to play stats-only...

RchW · 06-23-2013, 05:46 PM

Meh, revisit this after 5 seasons.

The Wolf · 06-23-2013, 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slugga27

It happens more than you might think. All the more reason to play stats-only...

Yes.

bazeall · 06-23-2013, 06:43 PM

Those are simulated stats. The only games I play are the Cubs games.

olivertheorem · 06-23-2013, 07:36 PM

What are his ratings, and how good are his infield and outfield defensively. Playing in Chavez Ravine, there's also the pitchers-park effect.

slugga27 · 06-23-2013, 09:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bazeall

Those are simulated stats. The only games I play are the Cubs games.

This makes no difference whatsoever...it is the same sim engine. My point stands: Play stats-only and you will never think about this again.

The Wolf · 06-23-2013, 09:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slugga27

This makes no difference whatsoever...it is the same sim engine. My point stands: Play stats-only and you will never think about this again.

And he's right.

jazzrack · 06-23-2013, 09:50 PM

"stars" are a quick and dirty sorting system (read limited), they are only 1 of many tools you should use to evaluate a player. me and the star system often disagree.

darkcloud4579 · 06-23-2013, 09:50 PM

Stats-only guys, explain the appeal. I've been considering it more and more lately...do you tend to play your games out too?

jazzrack · 06-23-2013, 09:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slugga27

This makes no difference whatsoever...it is the same sim engine. My point stands: Play stats-only and you will never think about this again.

don't need to play stats only to not think about, has never bothered me to be smarter than marcus

The Game · 06-23-2013, 09:57 PM

Sometimes scouts are wrong. i have seen 1 star guys scouting by excellent scouts win POTY awards and 5 star guys go 5-20. Of course that is one season and not a career. He could be rated low for a variety of reasons. Stuff, Velocity, Stamina what have you but he might be better then some of his low ratings show. I have 2 1 star OF with 100% scouting on. one guy is hitting .423 in about 67 AB 4 HR 12 RBI he is my 4th OF. the other is hitting .301 in about 29 AB and is 11-12 PH.

slugga27 · 06-23-2013, 10:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkcloud4579

Stats-only guys, explain the appeal. I've been considering it more and more lately...do you tend to play your games out too?

I play out every game.

It forces you to look at stats/scouting reports as the only indication of a player's ability, or lackthereof. It makes the game much more of a challenge than just looking at numerical or star ratings. In addition, you have to determine if Player A is just having a fluke year or if he's playing to his true ability.

So, in the case described by the OP, I would need at least three years to decide if he's the real deal or just a flash in the pan.

Try it out. You won't turn back.

RchW · 06-23-2013, 10:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slugga27

This makes no difference whatsoever...it is the same sim engine. My point stands: Play stats-only and you will never think about this again.

I don't think not playing stats only explains why the OP thinks 1.1 seasons of good results is a long term superstar in the making.

To echo another poster I don't think about it either.

Mariners fan 24 · 06-23-2013, 10:54 PM

Stars are the most useful when evaluating players to draft or sign internationally. Even then, I look at the potential numbers to decide.

The Wolf · 06-23-2013, 11:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slugga27

i play out every game.

It forces you to look at stats/scouting reports as the only indication of a player's ability, or lackthereof. It makes the game much more of a challenge than just looking at numerical or star ratings. In addition, you have to determine if player a is just having a fluke year or if he's playing to his true ability.

So, in the case described by the op, i would need at least three years to decide if he's the real deal or just a flash in the pan.

Try it out. You won't turn back.

qft.

DanP68 · 06-24-2013, 12:22 AM

Stats-only has a ton of appeal to me. The problem I can never get around is what to do about players who have no statistical history to base your analysis on, and what to do about player "ceilings". Drafts give you some HS or college stats to go off of, but it is a small sample size. Foreign players have no background to form an opinion about.

I just don't think it is realistic to play stats-only. Real-life analysis involves a combination of statistics and observation. Observation theoretically tells you whether the player has a low or high ceiling. Stats don't. They basically tell you what a player is capable of in the here and now. You can infer improvement or degradation from player age. But that's about it.

The OP's example is pretty extreme. I can't say that I have seen an example of a player being this poorly scouted in OOTP 13/14. I have always felt the scouting system could use improvement, but as long as you have stats as a reality check, I see no reason to throw out scouting altogether.

SunDevil · 06-24-2013, 12:40 AM

- You don't throw scouting out all together. Yes the stars are gone, but you still use and read the scouting reports.

- There are a ton of threads about setting up feeder leagues and that is what people us to gain more years of stats for drafting.

- For international free agents, yep you have to depend more on the scouting reports, again not throwing out scouting all together.

Finally, you have some of the most experienced players of this game, say that stats only is a viable option to use. Instead of dismissing you could ask for help or better yet search for all the threads that already layout and explain how to play and enjoy stats only.

Fyrestorm3 · 06-24-2013, 12:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SunDevil

- You don't throw scouting out all together. Yes the stars are gone, but you still use and read the scouting reports.

You can even leave Star Ratings on while everything else is off. It's what I do (with Scouting Accuracy at Low or Very Low), and checking a player's Potential Star Rating is a good, easy way to evaluate amateurs. Because of the low scouting accuracy, I quite often get it wrong, but that's the whole point.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DanP68

The OP's example is pretty extreme. I can't say that I have seen an example of a player being this poorly scouted in OOTP 13/14. I have always felt the scouting system could use improvement, but as long as you have stats as a reality check, I see no reason to throw out scouting altogether.

Who says his scout is wrong? Ten years down the road, this guy could be playing A-ball and looking back with fondness on his one brilliant year in the bigs.

EDIT: I think it's also helpful to remember that, with Scouting on, what bazeall is seeing for a Star rating is HIS SCOUT'S OPINION. Maybe his scout just doesn't see potential in the guy, despite the good start to his career. I know I felt that way about Clay Buccholz, after he pitched that no-hitter in his second start and continued putting up good numbers the next year. I watched him pitch, and thought "everyone's over-hyping this guy; there's no way he's going to become an ace". And I was wrong. But that's how I thought at the time. The scout in this case could be thinking along the same lines. That's the entire point of the scouting system in OOTP: unless it's set to 100% accuracy, your scout can be WRONG.

mpejkrm · 06-24-2013, 12:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DanP68

Stats-only has a ton of appeal to me. The problem I can never get around is what to do about players who have no statistical history to base your analysis on, and what to do about player "ceilings". Drafts give you some HS or college stats to go off of, but it is a small sample size. Foreign players have no background to form an opinion about.

I just don't think it is realistic to play stats-only. Real-life analysis involves a combination of statistics and observation. Observation theoretically tells you whether the player has a low or high ceiling. Stats don't. They basically tell you what a player is capable of in the here and now. You can infer improvement or degradation from player age. But that's about it.

The OP's example is pretty extreme. I can't say that I have seen an example of a player being this poorly scouted in OOTP 13/14. I have always felt the scouting system could use improvement, but as long as you have stats as a reality check, I see no reason to throw out scouting altogether.

I agree with this. I mean, scouts go out and give grades to their GM's, which are basically "ratings". It's not like the GM's have to work on ONLY STATS. They scout players too.

And yes, I have seen stuff like this happen, although not to that extent. Players get random bursts of development.

06-23-2013, 04:42 PM	#1
bazeall Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 190	Low Rated Player Long Term Superstar Anyone have examples of this? Dennis O'Grady, a 25 year old SP. SD released him in 2012 when he was a minor leaguer. In 2015 with the 85-77 Dodgers, he was 19-5 with a 2.91 ERA, 1.3 WHIP. So far in 2016 he's 2-1 with a 2.81 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. I had my scout scout him. The scout concluded half a star with a potential of 1 star.

06-23-2013, 05:46 PM	#3
RchW Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Toronto ON by way of Glasgow UK Posts: 15,629	Meh, revisit this after 5 seasons. __________________ Cheers RichW If you’re looking for a good cause to donate money to please consider a Donation to Parkinson’s Canada. It may help me have a better future and if not me, someone else. Thanks. “Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition …There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.” Frank Wilhoit

06-23-2013, 09:50 PM	#9
jazzrack Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: still kicking Posts: 3,229	"stars" are a quick and dirty sorting system (read limited), they are only 1 of many tools you should use to evaluate a player. me and the star system often disagree. __________________ . "Never confuse composure for ease" Was once Head Cheese of Corporate League Baseball

06-23-2013, 09:50 PM	#10
darkcloud4579 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2003 Posts: 8,712	Stats-only guys, explain the appeal. I've been considering it more and more lately...do you tend to play your games out too? __________________ ------ My Mods OOTP Advanced Stats & DFS Suite Managerial Strategy Pack Competitive Balance Tax Calculator Major League Women's Baseball (OOTP24) quickstart Indian Premier League \| 300+ years of baseball quickstart \| Expatriate League quickstart \| Off-Field Injuries Update \| Women's Name File for OOTP \| ---- Dynasty classics: Centurion comes to OOTP5 \| DC Moneyball Dynasty (2004)

06-23-2013, 05:38 PM	#2
slugga27 All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 1,272	It happens more than you might think. All the more reason to play stats-only...

06-23-2013, 06:43 PM	#5
bazeall Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 190	Those are simulated stats. The only games I play are the Cubs games.

06-23-2013, 07:36 PM	#6
olivertheorem All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,919	What are his ratings, and how good are his infield and outfield defensively. Playing in Chavez Ravine, there's also the pitchers-park effect.

06-23-2013, 09:57 PM	#12
The Game Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2012 Location: Inside The Game Posts: 30,937	Sometimes scouts are wrong. i have seen 1 star guys scouting by excellent scouts win POTY awards and 5 star guys go 5-20. Of course that is one season and not a career. He could be rated low for a variety of reasons. Stuff, Velocity, Stamina what have you but he might be better then some of his low ratings show. I have 2 1 star OF with 100% scouting on. one guy is hitting .423 in about 67 AB 4 HR 12 RBI he is my 4th OF. the other is hitting .301 in about 29 AB and is 11-12 PH.

06-23-2013, 10:54 PM	#15
Mariners fan 24 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 65	Stars are the most useful when evaluating players to draft or sign internationally. Even then, I look at the potential numbers to decide.

06-24-2013, 12:22 AM	#17
DanP68 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 151	Stats-only has a ton of appeal to me. The problem I can never get around is what to do about players who have no statistical history to base your analysis on, and what to do about player "ceilings". Drafts give you some HS or college stats to go off of, but it is a small sample size. Foreign players have no background to form an opinion about. I just don't think it is realistic to play stats-only. Real-life analysis involves a combination of statistics and observation. Observation theoretically tells you whether the player has a low or high ceiling. Stats don't. They basically tell you what a player is capable of in the here and now. You can infer improvement or degradation from player age. But that's about it. The OP's example is pretty extreme. I can't say that I have seen an example of a player being this poorly scouted in OOTP 13/14. I have always felt the scouting system could use improvement, but as long as you have stats as a reality check, I see no reason to throw out scouting altogether.

06-24-2013, 12:40 AM	#18
SunDevil Major Leagues Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 373	- You don't throw scouting out all together. Yes the stars are gone, but you still use and read the scouting reports. - There are a ton of threads about setting up feeder leagues and that is what people us to gain more years of stats for drafting. - For international free agents, yep you have to depend more on the scouting reports, again not throwing out scouting all together. Finally, you have some of the most experienced players of this game, say that stats only is a viable option to use. Instead of dismissing you could ask for help or better yet search for all the threads that already layout and explain how to play and enjoy stats only.