Does anything besides the final at-bat outcome mean anything during games?

[Slammer]

If I am playing out a game, should I take into account whether a pitcher is giving up lots of line drive or deep hit outs; whether a hitter is making "good contact", etc. or is this just the game engine embellishing what is just a binary outcome (e.g. out, single, etc.)?

In other words, if a pitcher is giving up a lot of hard hit balls is that just random variance at play, and still all that matters are his stamina and ratings? If a slumping batter is getting loud outs, is that a sign of him maybe "turning it around" or does such a thing not exist in this game?

[oldfatbaldguy]

That's a great question, and I hope somebody with a clue will pop in with an answer. Reading it, I realized that I assume pitchers who are giving up long outs are in trouble but I don't think hitters who produce them are coming out of a slump, and that is inconsistent. It seems to me that the function that determines whether hitters have a snowflake icon indicating they're in a slump doesn't care -- it gives them more credit for a walk than a 400-foot out.

There are games when a starting pitcher doesn't have "his good stuff" and doesn't strike anybody out, and occasionally he muddles through and does well but maybe more often he doesn't, which seems realistic.

[Syd Thrift]

I believe people have called the Gap Power rating a hitter’s “line drive rate”, which isn’t 100% true but works as kind of a rubric: the majority of extra base hits in the game come from the hitter’s “card” so to speak. Outside of those I think singles are big mishmash of “free” plays and failed fielding chances (and infield singles are something like 40% of all singles both IRL and in the game so watch out for that).

I’m of the opinion though that the game is in fact trying to impart information from the animations and types of results. A ball that looks like an out but flies over the head of a CF is I’m pretty positive a missed play by that fielder and likewise I think every infield single is at some level a missed play by whoever initially got the ball. Many times those are very low percentage chance plays (maybe even Impossible, which I’m capitalizing for a reason) but there is a chance and it improves with the quality of range or arm.

If you go into an individual fielder’s stats and look at their expanded fielding stats you’ll actually see a list of chance “types” from Routine to Impossible, and you’ll see that the better the fielder, the higher their percentages are across the board. The game unfortunately hides what chance “type” we see in the game.

[oldfatbaldguy]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

I’m of the opinion though that the game is in fact trying to impart information from the animations and types of results.

I think as the animation continues to improve, we're getting there. I'm still not sure about the balls that go over the center fielder's head while he's standing still, because they seem too common. (Are they still common? The versions of the game run together in my brain and it has been improving.)

[Alex Murray]

Originally Posted by Slammer

If I am playing out a game, should I take into account whether a pitcher is giving up lots of line drive or deep hit outs; whether a hitter is making "good contact", etc. or is this just the game engine embellishing what is just a binary outcome (e.g. out, single, etc.)?

In other words, if a pitcher is giving up a lot of hard hit balls is that just random variance at play, and still all that matters are his stamina and ratings? If a slumping batter is getting loud outs, is that a sign of him maybe "turning it around" or does such a thing not exist in this game?

So from my understanding, the game is simply embellishing binary outcomes. What matters more is if your hitter records a hit off the opposing pitcher and then the engine creates the hit outcome. Whether it's a hard-hit ball is going to be more indicative of the skill of the fielders. Because at the end of the day, a little looper down the line is a double which is the same as smacking a ball off the top of the wall. I don't believe we differentiate between the two and our in-game animations are just different ways to display the same result. There may be some minute influencers into what kind of result (animation and potentially the location of BIP) you get. If a batter is a pull hitter I believe we do take that into effect for what side of the field and I know that the hitter profile does indicate the more prevalent ball in play (BIP) result. So that can be ground ball/line drive/fly ball. So there are still some ways you can look at a player profile and know what the average ball in play would look like to try and influence that but the result itself is almost always pure binary 2B/3B territory and not depending on the exit velocity or "contact quality".

Now there might be more to it that I'm overlooking or forgetting about but that's my memory regarding that.

[Slammer]

Originally Posted by Alex Murray

So from my understanding, the game is simply embellishing binary outcomes. What matters more is if your hitter records a hit off the opposing pitcher and then the engine creates the hit outcome. Whether it's a hard-hit ball is going to be more indicative of the skill of the fielders. Because at the end of the day, a little looper down the line is a double which is the same as smacking a ball off the top of the wall. I don't believe we differentiate between the two and our in-game animations are just different ways to display the same result. There may be some minute influencers into what kind of result (animation and potentially the location of BIP) you get. If a batter is a pull hitter I believe we do take that into effect for what side of the field and I know that the hitter profile does indicate the more prevalent ball in play (BIP) result. So that can be ground ball/line drive/fly ball. So there are still some ways you can look at a player profile and know what the average ball in play would look like to try and influence that but the result itself is almost always pure binary 2B/3B territory and not depending on the exit velocity or "contact quality".

Now there might be more to it that I'm overlooking or forgetting about but that's my memory regarding that.

Thanks for the reply Alex. So in other words, if I have a pitcher who is giving up a ton of deep line drive outs, that's not indicative of anything (tiring pitcher, etc.) and would be the same as a pop-up? Or conversely if a batter is making good contact via the animations, but that is still leading to outs, it doesn't indicate something like they're 'seeing the ball well' or coming out of a slump?

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by Slammer

Thanks for the reply Alex. So in other words, if I have a pitcher who is giving up a ton of deep line drive outs, that's not indicative of anything (tiring pitcher, etc.) and would be the same as a pop-up? Or conversely if a batter is making good contact via the animations, but that is still leading to outs, it doesn't indicate something like they're 'seeing the ball well' or coming out of a slump?

Yeah, *that* stuff is I'm sure randomized. Hot streaks and slumps exist but outside of strikeouts a slump can look like a lot of loud outs or a lot of weak grounders. I still maintain that what I mentioned - fielding plays - isn't exactly what Alex meant, although at the same time there are surely some "failed chance" (I bet especially for Remote chances) that look exactly like line drives and such.

[highandoutside]

Hmm, it sure *seems* like I get a lot of loud outs when my pitcher is tiring, but that may just be confirmation bias.

However, I do have some memory of reading that hard hit outs and pitchers throwing the ball up in the zone can indicate a tiring pitcher, but that might be diamond-mind not OOTP. It was either on a DMB or OOTP message board years ago.