9th inning collapses

[mrbadguy]

Not sure if its just me but Im finding Im getting alot more 9th inning blown saves and collapses than before.
My closers are around a 75% conversion rate. They dont blow many when I sim games, so this percent is lower when I actually play the 9th. Rarely get a 3 up, 3 down save opportunity. Almost all saves turn into tying run on base, at bat or on deck.

In my most recent game, which was game 5 (final game) of NLDS my starter had a 3 hit, 2 walk shutout going into 9th. I brought in my defensive replacements with a 4-0 lead. He proceeded to walk the bases loaded, then I brought in a left vs left reliever who promptly gave up a grand slam. I lost in 11th.

Just find these 9th inning collapses are more common than before. Goes both ways as I have scored 3-5 runs in 9th to tie or win on too many occasion.

Is it just me? Thanks

[mrbadguy]

I'm currently playing in 1975...Fingers is my " closer". 0

[jtsly2000]

You are just on a run of bad luck unfortunately. In my Yankees franchise I manage all my games. Chapman is 22 for 22 in saves so far this season.

[LansdowneSt]

Originally Posted by mrbadguy

Not sure if its just me but Im finding Im getting alot more 9th inning blown saves and collapses than before.
My closers are around a 75% conversion rate. They dont blow many when I sim games, so this percent is lower when I actually play the 9th. Rarely get a 3 up, 3 down save opportunity. Almost all saves turn into tying run on base, at bat or on deck.

In my most recent game, which was game 5 (final game) of NLDS my starter had a 3 hit, 2 walk shutout going into 9th. I brought in my defensive replacements with a 4-0 lead. He proceeded to walk the bases loaded, then I brought in a left vs left reliever who promptly gave up a grand slam. I lost in 11th.

Just find these 9th inning collapses are more common than before. Goes both ways as I have scored 3-5 runs in 9th to tie or win on too many occasion.

Is it just me? Thanks

It can sometimes feel like the game is conspiring against you as you play out a close one in the bottom of the ninth... but I grew up a Red Sox fan and I had that feeling in the pit of my stomach every game of import that my Sox played in throughout my youth. It always seemed more so if I was watching. So, I've come to accept it as a perception bias. Glad the comebacks have swung your way at times too. I had to wait a long time for Red Sox karma to give me the late inning breaks....

[andyhdz]

Originally Posted by mrbadguy

Not sure if its just me but Im finding Im getting alot more 9th inning blown saves and collapses than before.
My closers are around a 75% conversion rate. They dont blow many when I sim games, so this percent is lower when I actually play the 9th. Rarely get a 3 up, 3 down save opportunity. Almost all saves turn into tying run on base, at bat or on deck.

In my most recent game, which was game 5 (final game) of NLDS my starter had a 3 hit, 2 walk shutout going into 9th. I brought in my defensive replacements with a 4-0 lead. He proceeded to walk the bases loaded, then I brought in a left vs left reliever who promptly gave up a grand slam. I lost in 11th.

Just find these 9th inning collapses are more common than before. Goes both ways as I have scored 3-5 runs in 9th to tie or win on too many occasion.

Is it just me? Thanks

And all those times it doesn't happen? You don't state any actual numbers just what you think your seeing. Doesnt help much

[mrbadguy]

Originally Posted by andyhdz

And all those times it doesn't happen? You don't state any actual numbers just what you think your seeing. Doesnt help much

I'm saying that overall my " closers" are only converting 70-75% of saves. This is over a 3 year period. Before acquiring Fingers he was converting 90-95% every year.
I realize blown saves, meltdowns, collaoses are part of baseball. Just seems these are only occurring in 9th for me.
Was just wondering if others noticed...could be my bullpen coach is awful...idk.

[Pelican]

I have noticed more blown saves: but then again I am not playing with great closers by any means, there is a memory bias that favors the painful blown saves while I forget the one-two-three innings, and the game stats overall seem about right.

[tcblcommish]

I have tried quite a few closers in the game now and in my 3 seasons of my newest fictional league they just blow game after game. 1 of the closers wasn't the best so after my first season, I ditched him and got a real good pitcher and he had led the league in saves the year before and after I got him, he was just garbage. Blew 4 saves in a row at one point. He converted at a better rate after that run but still, not lights out like he was when the AI had him and it was simmed.

He finished with 14 blown saves and 29 saves. Year before he blew 1 save and had 47 saves. My defense is way better than the team he played for, my offense is way better too yet 14 blown saves. 3rd season, he was 7 blown and 6 saves so I moved him out, got another guy with similar ratings and for the AI was outstanding though not as good as the other guy and he came to me and blew a bunch of saves in year 3. The other guy? Didn't blow a single save all year for the team he went to.

It is frustrating and it's close to making me just put this game down.

[jg2977]

The way I play OOTP is to just set up leagues and watch the playoff games. I don't control any teams. I do notice that there are a lot of games where a team has a one or two run lead in the ninth inning and they end up blowing the lead. It does make for exciting baseball. Sometimes it gets to the point where I'm surprised if the closer doesn't blow the game. In the playoffs most of the time, closers come in for two-inning saves. Frequently they'll coast through the 8th but blow it in the 9th. I attribute it to the fact that in the regular season they're used to pitching just one inning, so they may be prone to falling apart in the second inning of work.

I do see streaks where closers will finish many games successfully, so maybe it's just perception and bias. The games where closers blow leads are more memorable.

[Syd Thrift]

I think that historically when you’re using closers outside of the “come into the 9th with a lead” role we’ve grown accustomed to over the past couple decades, you will see more blown saves. A guy who otherwise pitches just fine but enters the game with a one run lead, no outs, and a guy on first will still blow that save opportunity like half the time or more.

Incidentally, spot-checking Rollie Fingers since he’s your example, I’m seeing him hit around 75% in converting save opportunities, including 1977, when he had 35 saves (and 11 blown saves).

[Cod]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

Incidentally, spot-checking Rollie Fingers since he’s your example, I’m seeing him hit around 75% in converting save opportunities, including 1977, when he had 35 saves (and 11 blown saves).

This is key. Whenever I sense something amiss in my historical simulations, I immediately cross-reference the numbers I'm seeing with Baseball Reference. The couple of times I've checked this year have matched up with what I found, so kudos to the developers for that.