Injury Rate question in Game Settings

hairlessOrphan · 06-25-2020, 04:50 AM

Does anyone know what the expected rate of injuries (IL visits, UCL tears) each level of Injury Frequency expects to generate per season?

Asking because - like so many people - I think the injury rate is busted. Over the 2019 season IRL, MLB saw 16 players get Tommy John surgery. In my standard league at "Normal (OOTP Classic)" injury rate, six players in the first three weeks tore their UCL - on pace for about 50.

That seems like a lot, right?

Trying to figure out if my league is an outlier, or if this roughly how many OOTP will expect to generate.

BBGiovanni · 06-25-2020, 12:02 PM

Since this always leads to a dogpile, I'll say: I don't know about the relative levels, but every time this comes up the actual numbers over multiple seasons (not three weeks) get compared to the "OOTP Classic" numbers and are worse, which is why there's the "Present Day MASH Unit Apocalypse" setting. Other stuff factors in like trainer skills and pitcher use... one year I joined an online league and didn't realize 7-day lineups were turned on and after a couple of sims I had lost 3-4 players because they were overplayed by the AI.

I don't like injuries either so I use the lowest level, and usually see 1-3 minor injuries per team per season, and maybe 1 serious injury per 3-4 teams in a year. I also turn pitcher stamina up a notch, so I don't know if that also makes them a little less likely to come up injured too.

hairlessOrphan · 06-25-2020, 03:33 PM

Gotcha, thanks! So what I'm hearing is that my league is an outlier. I can live with that. I would still love if anyone has numbers on how many injuries per season each setting generates, so I understand roughly what I'm trying to prepare for with my team.

I don't dislike injuries at all. Just concerned about the rate. 50 UCL's a season is more inline with if you count injuries across all levels (including minor leagues), but maybe this is the year only MLB-level players get hurt.

Syd Thrift · 06-25-2020, 03:46 PM

The other issue is that big injuries like ACL/UCL tears are far, far more likely to happen right after a player has a long layoff, for example when they are just coming back from a different injury (which is a big part of why rehab assignments exist) but also in the first week or two of spring training (or, if you aren’t using spring training, the first couple weeks of the season). IRL March is where most of those major injuries occur as well, if memory serves from past times this has been discussed. In-game there’s a “rust” rating that makes a player slightly less effective and heightens their chance of injury if they haven’t played in a while. The injury effect actually isn’t massive but if you apply, like, a 1% increase to everyone across the board, you’ll see a big wave of new injuries for this reason.

To the OP, run the whole season and take another look at UCL tears. I can all but guarantee you that you won’t see 50 of them. More than likely, it’ll be like 10 or 12.

BBGiovanni · 06-25-2020, 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hairlessOrphan

Gotcha, thanks! So what I'm hearing is that my league is an outlier. I can live with that.

Sorry I don't have specific links, it's been a while since I waded into one of the threads but there have been at least 3 or 4 this year. Several threads should turn up when you search the forum.

I wouldn't even call your league an outlier yet, you're still in April! I doubt that your injuries will regress all the way back to the mean, but if you have the worst 1 in 1000 or 1 in 10,000 season for injuries that shouldn't hold up too much longer. Good luck!

quillenl · 06-25-2020, 04:00 PM

I do know that if you start screwing with it the change from Very Low to Low is pretty dramatic... far more than any other change. Very Low is pretty rare regarding injuries to the point that one should just consider turning it off at that point.

RonCo · 06-25-2020, 04:54 PM

Here's something I just posted yesterday where I looked at a year's worth of elbow injuries from the BBA online league. It includes Tommy John and others. We use "Low" setting (when we were one notch higher, the injury rate essentially doubled). I looked at the number of injuries and how they affected the players' careers from 2038 (when the injury happened) through 2043 (where we are now)

http://montybrewster.net/forums/view...p?f=23&t=34546

I should note most of these were created and managed in OOTP v20, but I'd guess the algorithms haven't changed much.

swoboda · 06-26-2020, 05:24 PM

Bump
I would love to see a slider for injury severity, something that would allow you to limit duration to say four weeks. Would be great for people who play a single season in any mode.

Bobbyraz49 · 06-26-2020, 06:00 PM

I have played as GM/manager for 4 seasons in OOTP21. LOVE the game. Yet every year the ace on my staff gets injured in May and is out for at least 11 months. This season my SP was named pitcher of the month in April. The next time I got a message, stated he was out for 14 months. He was 5-1 with a sub 2 ERA. Heck.....he even was named to the all-stat game. I don't do any game changes. Heck...I'm not smart enough to locate them.

06-25-2020, 04:50 AM	#1
hairlessOrphan Bat Boy Join Date: Jun 2020 Posts: 6	Injury Rate question in Game Settings Does anyone know what the expected rate of injuries (IL visits, UCL tears) each level of Injury Frequency expects to generate per season? Asking because - like so many people - I think the injury rate is busted. Over the 2019 season IRL, MLB saw 16 players get Tommy John surgery. In my standard league at "Normal (OOTP Classic)" injury rate, six players in the first three weeks tore their UCL - on pace for about 50. That seems like a lot, right? Trying to figure out if my league is an outlier, or if this roughly how many OOTP will expect to generate.

06-25-2020, 12:02 PM	#2
BBGiovanni All Star Starter Join Date: Aug 2015 Location: Republic of California Posts: 1,911	Since this always leads to a dogpile, I'll say: I don't know about the relative levels, but every time this comes up the actual numbers over multiple seasons (not three weeks) get compared to the "OOTP Classic" numbers and are worse, which is why there's the "Present Day MASH Unit Apocalypse" setting. Other stuff factors in like trainer skills and pitcher use... one year I joined an online league and didn't realize 7-day lineups were turned on and after a couple of sims I had lost 3-4 players because they were overplayed by the AI. I don't like injuries either so I use the lowest level, and usually see 1-3 minor injuries per team per season, and maybe 1 serious injury per 3-4 teams in a year. I also turn pitcher stamina up a notch, so I don't know if that also makes them a little less likely to come up injured too. __________________ Let's Go (San Jose) Giants, Let's Go Mets! Current Project: WBAT/AABBA: Organized Base Ball And the "New Normal" World Baseball Aid Tournament 2023 trophy round underway!

06-25-2020, 04:00 PM	#6
quillenl All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 581	I do know that if you start screwing with it the change from Very Low to Low is pretty dramatic... far more than any other change. Very Low is pretty rare regarding injuries to the point that one should just consider turning it off at that point. __________________

06-25-2020, 04:54 PM	#7
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 10,508	Here's something I just posted yesterday where I looked at a year's worth of elbow injuries from the BBA online league. It includes Tommy John and others. We use "Low" setting (when we were one notch higher, the injury rate essentially doubled). I looked at the number of injuries and how they affected the players' careers from 2038 (when the injury happened) through 2043 (where we are now) http://montybrewster.net/forums/view...p?f=23&t=34546 I should note most of these were created and managed in OOTP v20, but I'd guess the algorithms haven't changed much. Last edited by RonCo; 06-25-2020 at 04:55 PM.

06-26-2020, 05:24 PM	#8
swoboda All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Guarding The Line Posts: 1,230	Bump I would love to see a slider for injury severity, something that would allow you to limit duration to say four weeks. Would be great for people who play a single season in any mode. __________________ "...If you want to look ahead to the bottom of the ninth, the Mets will be sending up Buddy Harrelson, Jerry Buchek , and Don Bosch, we'll be right back after this word from Rheingold Beer" The late great Lindsey Nelson

06-25-2020, 03:33 PM	#3
hairlessOrphan Bat Boy Join Date: Jun 2020 Posts: 6	Gotcha, thanks! So what I'm hearing is that my league is an outlier. I can live with that. I would still love if anyone has numbers on how many injuries per season each setting generates, so I understand roughly what I'm trying to prepare for with my team. I don't dislike injuries at all. Just concerned about the rate. 50 UCL's a season is more inline with if you count injuries across all levels (including minor leagues), but maybe this is the year only MLB-level players get hurt.

06-26-2020, 06:00 PM	#9
Bobbyraz49 All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2020 Posts: 958	I have played as GM/manager for 4 seasons in OOTP21. LOVE the game. Yet every year the ace on my staff gets injured in May and is out for at least 11 months. This season my SP was named pitcher of the month in April. The next time I got a message, stated he was out for 14 months. He was 5-1 with a sub 2 ERA. Heck.....he even was named to the all-stat game. I don't do any game changes. Heck...I'm not smart enough to locate them.