Sean Doolittle -7 points?

chazzycat · 04-22-2019, 09:34 PM

I can usually make sense of the ratings changes, just looking at projections versus performance. But this one really has me scratching my head. Doolittle has pitched 10 innings this season with an ERA of 0.9 and FIP of 1.7.

For starters 10 IP seems like a pretty small sample to be swinging an established player 7 points...

But mostly I'm just confused about how it is possible. ZiPs projects him to put up a FIP of 2.9 this season. Small sample aside, he's beating that significantly right now. My understanding is that the game's pitcher modelling is basically identical to FIP. So generally, if a pitcher is beating his FIP projection, you would expect to see his rating go up, not down. Certainly not down 7 points.

Anyone care to explain this one for me?

mrbucket · 04-22-2019, 09:42 PM

My guess: his FIP is low because no one has homered off him yet. It takes a bit longer for HR/9 to stabalise vs K/9 or BB/9 because there is lower numbers involved. So the system has moderate confidence in his K/9 and BB/9 numbers (both of them are worse than projections) but no confidence in his HR/9 numbers (which is obviously way better than projections).

So the worse-than-projected K/9 and BB/9 is dragging him down but the better-than-projected HR/9 isn't helping him at all.

chazzycat · 04-22-2019, 09:45 PM

that...actually makes sense. Thanks. I wonder how long he has to pitch without giving up a homer to get any credit on his MOV rating.

chazzycat · 04-24-2019, 02:47 PM

I found another ratings adjustment I can't figure out - Will Smith (+4).

Now, normally a pitcher with a 1.0 ERA...it shouldn't be a surprise to see their ratings go up 4 points.

But in light of the revelation above, I can't make sense of it. It really looks like he has done the same thing as Doolittle. He's performing worse than projected in terms of strikeout and walk rates. Counting games through last Sunday (excluding his one most recent appearance), his stats are 8.2 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9. ZiPs projections are 11.8 and 3.0 respectively. So he's worse than projected in both areas.

But overall his numbers look great, mostly, because he has not allowed any homers. But he has pitched even less innings than Doolittle. If Doolittle isn't benefiting ratings-wise from his low HR rate, how is Smith?

How is Smith +4 on the season while Doolittle is -7?

Sorry if this comes off as complaining...that's not really the intent...I would just like to understand how things work as best as possible

04-22-2019, 09:34 PM	#1
chazzycat All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 1,685	Sean Doolittle -7 points? I can usually make sense of the ratings changes, just looking at projections versus performance. But this one really has me scratching my head. Doolittle has pitched 10 innings this season with an ERA of 0.9 and FIP of 1.7. For starters 10 IP seems like a pretty small sample to be swinging an established player 7 points... But mostly I'm just confused about how it is possible. ZiPs projects him to put up a FIP of 2.9 this season. Small sample aside, he's beating that significantly right now. My understanding is that the game's pitcher modelling is basically identical to FIP. So generally, if a pitcher is beating his FIP projection, you would expect to see his rating go up, not down. Certainly not down 7 points. Anyone care to explain this one for me?

04-22-2019, 09:42 PM	#2
mrbucket All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2013 Location: New Zealand Posts: 902	My guess: his FIP is low because no one has homered off him yet. It takes a bit longer for HR/9 to stabalise vs K/9 or BB/9 because there is lower numbers involved. So the system has moderate confidence in his K/9 and BB/9 numbers (both of them are worse than projections) but no confidence in his HR/9 numbers (which is obviously way better than projections). So the worse-than-projected K/9 and BB/9 is dragging him down but the better-than-projected HR/9 isn't helping him at all. __________________ Russell Crowe Baseball Association

04-22-2019, 09:45 PM	#3
chazzycat All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 1,685	that...actually makes sense. Thanks. I wonder how long he has to pitch without giving up a homer to get any credit on his MOV rating.

04-24-2019, 02:47 PM	#4
chazzycat All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 1,685	I found another ratings adjustment I can't figure out - Will Smith (+4). Now, normally a pitcher with a 1.0 ERA...it shouldn't be a surprise to see their ratings go up 4 points. But in light of the revelation above, I can't make sense of it. It really looks like he has done the same thing as Doolittle. He's performing worse than projected in terms of strikeout and walk rates. Counting games through last Sunday (excluding his one most recent appearance), his stats are 8.2 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9. ZiPs projections are 11.8 and 3.0 respectively. So he's worse than projected in both areas. But overall his numbers look great, mostly, because he has not allowed any homers. But he has pitched even less innings than Doolittle. If Doolittle isn't benefiting ratings-wise from his low HR rate, how is Smith? How is Smith +4 on the season while Doolittle is -7? Sorry if this comes off as complaining...that's not really the intent...I would just like to understand how things work as best as possible