Does Ichiro's 3,000 Count?

[Michael Hopcroft]

Seattle's Ichiro Suzuki just got a base hit against the Rangers. That makes 3,000 total base hits between the American major leagues and the Japanese major leagues.

If Ichiro has enough career left to get 3,000 carrer major league hits, that would be amazing longevity. The japanese media is making a big deal out of his 3,000th total hit. But is it really that big a deal? Is the competition good enough in Japan for his hits there to be signficant?

[Big Hugg]

It's a big deal over there, not as much here.

It's impressive, but not as impressive as 3,000 here. Their league is superior to the AAA level here, but not as good as the big league level.

That said, he's likely going to hit the 2,000 mark next season, in his 9th season over here. That's amazing.

[Carplos]

Three-thousand professional hits is impressive no matter where it takes place, in my opinion.

[His Own Bad Self]

Originally Posted by Big Hugg

It's a big deal over there, not as much here.

It's impressive, but not as impressive as 3,000 here. Their league is superior to the AAA level here, but not as good as the big league level.

That said, he's likely going to hit the 2,000 mark next season, in his 9th season over here. That's amazing.

"

BTW, there's no reason for Ichiro not to be voted in as a Hall of Famer unless for some reason he doesn't get ten MLB seasons in. Even if that happened, I imagine the BBWAA would make an exception for him, and rightfully so.

[rudel.dietrich]

BP has a mountain of data on conveting the Japanese league numbers into MLB numbers.
So if you were so inclined you could find out many 'MLB' hits Ichiro collected in Japan and then find out when his saber 3000th hit will occur

I also have to add that Ichiro would make a poor HOF selection
A carrer 117 OPS+ is pretty pederstrian and no where near HOF level

[gpm22]

Originally Posted by Fallschirmjager

I also have to add that Ichiro would make a poor HOF selection
A carrer 117 OPS+ is pretty pederstrian and no where near HOF level

He's no Ozzie.

[Prodigal Son]

Originally Posted by Fallschirmjager

BP has a mountain of data on conveting the Japanese league numbers into MLB numbers.
So if you were so inclined you could find out many 'MLB' hits Ichiro collected in Japan and then find out when his saber 3000th hit will occur

I also have to add that Ichiro would make a poor HOF selection
A carrer 117 OPS+ is pretty pederstrian and no where near HOF level

Especially for a corner outfielder. Ichiro has maybe what, one season in MLB as a top 5 corner OF? His hype is a direct result of his international appeal, unique playing style (and unique statistical output) and the general trend of overrating hits and underrating power and walks.

And Ichiro's 3000 hits only count if we decide to convert everyone's minor leagues numbers throughout history to see how many hits they have. Not that the American minors are as good as Japanese ball (although AAA is pretty comparable), the point is that if you're going to convert one guys pre-MLB stats, it's only fair to give everyone the benefit of the doubt. Because you have a guy like Ryan Howard who crushed 111 HR in the minors and was stuck there through no fault of his own (because Philly had Thome and didn't want to have to start Howard's clock as a backup).

[Jason Moyer]

Originally Posted by Fallschirmjager

A carrer 117 OPS+ is pretty pederstrian and no where near HOF level

Ichiro's OPS+ doesn't take into account his speed and defense, which is a big part of his value.

Purely as a hitter, he's having the worst year of his career but his RC/27 is still 9th among centerfielders, and is higher than someone like Torii Hunter whose OPS is 100 points higher.

[Long_Long_Name]

If you want the HoF to be about characters as well as good performers, Ichiro Suzuki isn't a bad choice.

[CMH]

Originally Posted by Fallschirmjager

BP has a mountain of data on conveting the Japanese league numbers into MLB numbers.
So if you were so inclined you could find out many 'MLB' hits Ichiro collected in Japan and then find out when his saber 3000th hit will occur

I also have to add that Ichiro would make a poor HOF selection
A carrer 117 OPS+ is pretty pederstrian and no where near HOF level

That didn't stop Doerr or Carter.

[<Pion>]

Originally Posted by YankeePride

That didn't stop Doerr or Carter.

I don't think using a 2Bman and a catcher help your argument much when comparing to a RFer.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by <Pion>

I don't think using a 2Bman and a catcher help your argument much when comparing to a RFer.

Add Robin Yount a SS and a CF. Catcher (as in Carter and Fisk) is considered a power position too.

I'm puzzled by the reference to position. Just because a position is traditionally one of power shouldn't affect an extraordinary player. Good example would be Wade Boggs, definitely not suitable power for a 3B but a HoF lock anyway.

I don't want to count Suzuki's Japanese hits but I think it is OK for voters to look at his 200+ hits every year and extrapolate to reach a conclusion.

[myasu]

Originally Posted by Big Hugg

It's a big deal over there, not as much here.

Well, it is not such a big deal over here, as far as I can see.
Yes, media covers Ichiro almost everyday because of the 3,000th hits, even though most of them hate him.

Average Japanese baseball fans do not really care about Ichiro's 3,000th hit, or how the Mariners suck this year.

They only care about Japanese teams, and their Olympic team...

Personally, I think Ichiro is (physically) capable of playing until he has 3,000hits in the States, with the way he prepares himself for the games and everything...
It is just that the team(s) will not allow him to keep playing until he has 3,000 with the way he plays the game.

When he is 42, 43 years old,

1. He will (does) not have power to be a DH.
2. He will lose his speed, as well as his defensive range.
3. His # of hits will decrease obviously over the years.
4. He will not play for $500,000/year...

Is he a HOF?, I do not know...
One thing for sure, if he is not, I am sure there will be no Japanese HOFer in my lifetime.

[thomamon]

To me, its not a big deal at all. JMO

[Big Hugg]

Originally Posted by myasu

Well, it is not such a big deal over here, as far as I can see.
Yes, media covers Ichiro almost everyday because of the 3,000th hits, even though most of them hate him.

Fair enough. From over here, you can really only judge from the media.

[Syd Thrift]

On the plus side for Ichiro(!), speed guys tend to age well. And there's always that sense that we're not getting everything Ichiro can do. Since coming to the US, he's seemed to have turned himself into a pure slap hitter. He wasn't like that in Japan. Yes, I know a lot of players leave their power in Japan... but even so.

I think he's a baseball HOFer at this point. 3,000 hits in organized baseball, soon to be 2,000 in the majors... I would not be surprised if, after he calls it quits over here, he gets on a JL roster and sticks around long enough to break Pete Rose's record. That's very meaningful. Thus far, the HOF hasn't been about enshrining foreign players or even Americans who make their mark on non-major league baseball (see: Lefty O'Doul), but I think Ichiro(!) will be the guy to break down that barrier, and soon they'll be enshrining Sadaharu Oh and Victor Starffin.

[Big Hugg]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

On the plus side for Ichiro(!), speed guys tend to age well. And there's always that sense that we're not getting everything Ichiro can do. Since coming to the US, he's seemed to have turned himself into a pure slap hitter. He wasn't like that in Japan. Yes, I know a lot of players leave their power in Japan... but even so.

I agree with this. I think we're going to see Ichiro reinvent himself as he begins to slow down some. He's not going to become some massive power hitter or anything, but he's definitely chosen a way to play and be successful and he's stuck with it. That's what I think makes him so great.

He's a Hall of Famer in my opinion.

[myasu]

Originally Posted by Big Hugg

I agree with this. I think we're going to see Ichiro reinvent himself as he begins to slow down some. He's not going to become some massive power hitter or anything, but he's definitely chosen a way to play and be successful and he's stuck with it. That's what I think makes him so great.

He's a Hall of Famer in my opinion.

In his recent interview with the Japanese media, when asked about his power potential, his answer was,

" I could probably hit 40+ homeruns per season, but my average will drop to around .220~.230. I do not think that is what people want to see from me, though. "
Somewhere in the middle (.270~.280, 26HR) will not be bad for 40 YO...

[Prodigal Son]

Well, it's easier for Ichiro to say that he can hit 40 home runs per season than for him to actually do it.

[AnotherAlias]

No doubt in my mind Ichiro is inducted into the HOF someday. A .330 lifetime Avg. in MLB and 246 hits per year puts him on the road to the HOF. If he players anotherfive years, he'll make, I guarantee...

A carrer 117 OPS+ is pretty pederstrian and no where near HOF level

It's just as good, if not better than these HOFamers OPS+:

Nellie Fox 93
Carlton Fisk 117
Robin Yount 115
Richie Ashburn 111
Red Schoendienst 93
Lou Brock 109
Luis Aparicio 82

There are probably many more HOFamers with lower OPS+, but I didn't have time to find them. I don't believe this reason for Ichiro not to make the HOF has enough merit.