Effective Drafting Strategy

[Dactyl]

Is there any effective strategy for the amateur draft? By that, I mean a strategy that will lead to a greater percentage of future major-leaguers as opposed to just letting the AI make all of your draft picks. After trying a number of strategies, I've about reached the conclusion that the draft is a total crap shoot, and that you might as well just let your head scout dictate all of your picks.

[darkcloud4579]

Letting the AI make your picks is a REALLY bad idea. That I can assure you. It depends on whether you play with scouts on or not, but by and large..I've found that the only thing letting the AI run your draft is good for is using it as a house rule by artificially weakening your team.

Because over time, that's precisely what will happen to your cupboards if you're relying on the AI to evaluate talent without a crisp human eye to pour over the players -- especially in the earlier rounds -- to decide what your team's needs are short and long range.

I'm sure there are other opinions/strategies tho.

[lencombs]

Originally Posted by Dactyl

Is there any effective strategy for the amateur draft? By that, I mean a strategy that will lead to a greater percentage of future major-leaguers as opposed to just letting the AI make all of your draft picks. After trying a number of strategies, I've about reached the conclusion that the draft is a total crap shoot, and that you might as well just let your head scout dictate all of your picks.

18 year old high school players have more chances to be downgraded... college players have less a chance to be a complete bust and more likely to do well in the minors...

speedy outfielders that can play all the outfield with great range is always a safe bet, or infielders with great infield range and a strong arm and high contact potential. worst ya get is a baserunner off the bench that can play the field and steal bases off the bench.

things to avoid Middle relievers.. always a ton of them every draft.. check them out and see if one of them has enough endurance to be a starter.. otherwise avoid these guys like the plague.

[ctorg]

Originally Posted by lencombs

things to avoid Middle relievers.. always a ton of them every draft.. check them out and see if one of them has enough endurance to be a starter.. otherwise avoid these guys like the plague.

While I can't say I've made a strategy of it, I actually had a bit of luck by drafting relatively high-rated MRs in later rounds, once all the probably future major leaguers have gone, and trading them once they develop to some degree. The value of MRs depends on the era in which you are playing. In general, though, they can be replaced much more easily than any other position.

My own best strategy has been to look for players with high potential who are relatively far along in development, regardless of whether they are high school or college age. So a guy whose overall/potential is 25/70 might be a better pick than a guy who is 20/75. While the second guy's peak is higher, it will take him longer to develop and he'll be exposed to more random fluctuation.

Another thing I've kind of gone with, though I'm not sure it works, is that I don't like to take guys whose current skills are spiked in one area that is out of whack with their potentials. For instance, let's say you have a pitcher with stuff/control/movement potentials (on the 20-point scale) of 15/10/12, and his current ratings are 2/9/4 or something. I may be completely wrong, but these guys never seem to develop.

[MorseMoose]

In OOTP5, I always drafted guys with the nicknames. They always seemed to develop . lol

Joke post, but I'm totally serious.

[cbbl]

I play with scouts, so I certainly rely on them to help in the draft.

Some of the suggetions in this thread are good. I'll emphasize that drafts tend to be overstocked with MRs, most of which you don't want even if their potential is high -- no point in having a solid reliever if there is no roster spot for them. However, as mentioned, look for MR with endurance at the mid-level or above -- these guys often turn into starters and are worth drafting.

The biggest thing I see where the AI fails is the consideration of future need. Although it does seem to draft based on position scarcity, it doesn't seem to consider whether you are already super deep in a particular skill or super weak in another.

I suppose IRL teams don't put too much stock in this either, as its probably better to collect that top-rated first baseman even if you can't use him -- he'll prove solid trade material.

I always flip through my scout ratings, and I know which scouts are good at what. For example, if Scout A and B both have 80 ratings for pitching prospects, but 30 ratings for hitting prospects, while Scout C has 80 ratings for hitting prospects, well, it's kind of obvious that I'll listen more to Scout A and B for pitchers and Scout C for hitters.

Usually when multiple scouts have solid skills in one particular area, I first draft the players they agree on, and then work my way down to their individual preferences. Be sure to consider each scout's ability to scout potential, not just the net score (which includes overall).

[The Wolf]

I have had good luck drafting starters first and then a closer and then sluggers.

[endgame]

Originally Posted by Dactyl

you might as well just let your head scout dictate all of your picks.

I've actually done just that and with some success. Of course that depends on the quality of your Head Scout. The only element of that process that disturbed me a bit, was that his selections did not go hand in hand with his initial scout of the draft pool. In other words, his early report may have indicated Twyler was his third pick, but on the 4th round - with Twyler still available - he would suggest someone not even on his list or a player lower on his list. I just made the selection for him in those instances.

[conception]

Originally Posted by ctorg

While I can't say I've made a strategy of it, I actually had a bit of luck by drafting relatively high-rated MRs in later rounds, once all the probably future major leaguers have gone, and trading them once they develop to some degree. The value of MRs depends on the era in which you are playing. In general, though, they can be replaced much more easily than any other position.

My own best strategy has been to look for players with high potential who are relatively far along in development, regardless of whether they are high school or college age. So a guy whose overall/potential is 25/70 might be a better pick than a guy who is 20/75. While the second guy's peak is higher, it will take him longer to develop and he'll be exposed to more random fluctuation.

Another thing I've kind of gone with, though I'm not sure it works, is that I don't like to take guys whose current skills are spiked in one area that is out of whack with their potentials. For instance, let's say you have a pitcher with stuff/control/movement potentials (on the 20-point scale) of 15/10/12, and his current ratings are 2/9/4 or something. I may be completely wrong, but these guys never seem to develop.

I draft the middle relievers too in the later rounds, they make excellent trade bait later on and because I know I can replace any of them with the draft, I find them easily expendable even on my roster. Usually I am so effective with trades that I don't need the draft for average position player talent, but all the good ones are usually gone by the time I start loading up on relievers anyway. I don't play with scouts on, though, so that may change things drastically for other people.

[Red Sox Scout]

Originally Posted by conception

I draft the middle relievers too in the later rounds, they make excellent trade bait later on and because I know I can replace any of them with the draft, I find them easily expendable even on my roster. Usually I am so effective with trades that I don't need the draft for average position player talent, but all the good ones are usually gone by the time I start loading up on relievers anyway. I don't play with scouts on, though, so that may change things drastically for other people.

I assume you play in solo leagues. In on-line leagues trying to trade MR's is very tough since no one else wants them either.

[ctorg]

Originally Posted by conception

I draft the middle relievers too in the later rounds, they make excellent trade bait later on and because I know I can replace any of them with the draft, I find them easily expendable even on my roster. Usually I am so effective with trades that I don't need the draft for average position player talent, but all the good ones are usually gone by the time I start loading up on relievers anyway. I don't play with scouts on, though, so that may change things drastically for other people.

I play with scouts off, too. It may make a difference.

[ehencley]

1. Starting Pitchers
2. Sluggers
3. Defensive players (can play all OF or all IF) with Contact/Speed/Eye
4. MR