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acs1970 · 05-24-2004, 05:36 PM

Last week, Jim Edmunds advanced from 2nd to 3rd with one out (the fly that was just hit and caught) and the St. Louis announcers made a relatively big deal about it, saying how seldom you see it happen. Hrabowsky (sp?) went on to say how he thinks more managers need to re-think their approach with "none out" in those situations. The announcers strongly suggested that it is a rare play.

Being from St. Louis, I watch tons of baseball, and I have to admit that I seldom recall seeing a player tag up from 2nd in the last few years. Not that I've never seen it, but its been rare.

I would guess you don't see it with 2 outs as much, because it isn't worth the risk. A man on second will most likely score on any non-infield single with two outs, anyway, so why risk sending him to third? Moving the man from 2nd to 3rd with less than two outs often runs into the same circumstance, though--is it worth the risk when I have less than 2 outs? I'd never want to make the second out (let alone the 3rd) by advancing a runner.

Zweiblumen's number sounds a bit high to me, though I'm sure he knows how to read stats. However, it doesn't say how many times the option was there (how many outfield flyballs occurred with someone on 2nd, less than 2 outs).

Using his modified number of 651, that works out to once every 3.235 games. (Note we don't know how many times it were possible, so we can't percentage of opportunity.)

However, because you don't see this when it is presented for the computer team, you should only see this opportunity about once every 6.47 games (since you don't see when the computer opponent is offered this opportunity, we have to assume its roughly half the time).

If you've been presented this opportunity 15 times in 100 games, you are DEAD ON based on those numbers. In 100 games, you should be able to tag up 15.5 times!

Hope that made sense!

Chad

---
Edited--I should point out, I think it was "The Mad Hungarian" that was commenting on the tag up from second to third. I could be mistaken. I certainly don't want to speak for him if I am mis-remembering who was talking at the time!

05-24-2004, 05:36 PM	#16
acs1970 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: St. Louis, MO Posts: 61	Last week, Jim Edmunds advanced from 2nd to 3rd with one out (the fly that was just hit and caught) and the St. Louis announcers made a relatively big deal about it, saying how seldom you see it happen. Hrabowsky (sp?) went on to say how he thinks more managers need to re-think their approach with "none out" in those situations. The announcers strongly suggested that it is a rare play. Being from St. Louis, I watch tons of baseball, and I have to admit that I seldom recall seeing a player tag up from 2nd in the last few years. Not that I've never seen it, but its been rare. I would guess you don't see it with 2 outs as much, because it isn't worth the risk. A man on second will most likely score on any non-infield single with two outs, anyway, so why risk sending him to third? Moving the man from 2nd to 3rd with less than two outs often runs into the same circumstance, though--is it worth the risk when I have less than 2 outs? I'd never want to make the second out (let alone the 3rd) by advancing a runner. Zweiblumen's number sounds a bit high to me, though I'm sure he knows how to read stats. However, it doesn't say how many times the option was there (how many outfield flyballs occurred with someone on 2nd, less than 2 outs). Using his modified number of 651, that works out to once every 3.235 games. (Note we don't know how many times it were possible, so we can't percentage of opportunity.) However, because you don't see this when it is presented for the computer team, you should only see this opportunity about once every 6.47 games (since you don't see when the computer opponent is offered this opportunity, we have to assume its roughly half the time). If you've been presented this opportunity 15 times in 100 games, you are DEAD ON based on those numbers. In 100 games, you should be able to tag up 15.5 times! Hope that made sense! Chad --- Edited--I should point out, I think it was "The Mad Hungarian" that was commenting on the tag up from second to third. I could be mistaken. I certainly don't want to speak for him if I am mis-remembering who was talking at the time! __________________ Chad S. Last edited by acs1970; 05-24-2004 at 05:39 PM.