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Old 05-27-2026, 08:26 PM   #6
kq76
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Join Date: Nov 2002
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I'm not sure, but there's a few things to note:

-OOTP only separated out iBB fairly recently, like OOTP26. I actually didn't even notice this until a few weeks ago. And when I copied over my era_stats.txt file from OOTP25 to OOTP26 I never added an iBB column like OOTP26 has, but the ratios I got for it (OOTP26) were still really good, even before tweaking the modifiers. So, if all else fails, maybe get rid of your iBB column and see if that helps. Crazy, I know, but maybe it'll help.

-iBB/G has varied quite a bit over the years, from .4 to under .1 in recent years. You seem to be targetting .166 which is reasonable. And you're right, 150 walks over 3888 games, which is .0385 iBB/G, is not reasonable.

-Your PA/AB ratio (1.111) is *maybe* a little low from it should be. It's not crazy low (it has been that low before, but historically it's about 1.123), but considering how small iBB is, I right away thought it could be a problem with PAs and ABs.

-Were you starting from a baseline year and tweaking it from there like I do or are you making it all up from scratch? I ask because it might help to know what are targets are and understand how plausible it likely is.

-Your AB formula is missing an "other" stat. I mean, yeah, you're subtracting AB+BB+HB+SF+SG from PA, but you're not subtracting interference and obstruction. Are those so small that they shouldn't make a difference? Maybe, but a number of small things could make a difference. I use .005 for my O/G.

-I find it odd that you're setting your ratios to /IP instead of to /G. I mean, yeah, I guess you could do that, but it seems to me that it's unnecessarily complicating matters. And yes, I understand that games aren't perfect 9 innings per, they're less than 9, and it looks like you are factoring that in, but I just don't think it's necessary to put them over IP rather than G. Which leads to...

-I'm really confused by how you're calculating PA. It seems to be (IP_Outs+(H+BB+HB+CI-RunnerOuts)*9IPGames+ROE)/9IPGames? I've never seen anything like that before. Your way might work perfectly fine, but I just think mine is so much simpler and I find, in general, the simpler you do things the less chances for mistakes. Maybe my way is too simple, but I first calculate AB = H + RBOE + RBOFC + non-sac Out (including SO) and then PA = AB + BB + HB + SF + SH + Other, whereas you obviously calculate PA first and then calculate AB from PA. I'm trying to make sense of your formula in my head and it's a struggle. It might be perfectly valid, but I can't help but wonder if something isn't quite right about it.

I don't know. What you might be doing might be perfectly fine and it's just something with the game, but you're calculating so many things and in such a complicated way that I don't really want to try harder to make sense of it all. Maybe take a step back and try to simplify it? When I think about league totals and modifiers in general, what I think is important is, "is everything plausible?" Meaning, PA can't be 2xAB, iBB can't be 1/G, etc. And no, I'm not saying you have done that (I didn't look at it all enough to judge whether you have or not), but I'm just saying, if I put my ideal totals line in the middle somewhere of rows of historical totals (or my ideal ratios among historical ratios), would my row appear plausible or is there just something about it that is just not plausible? And so I'm still wondering, is there something about your PA and AB #s that are squeezing out iBB? Maybe there's just simply not enough room for it given your other numbers.
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