Week 19, part 1: October 3-9, 2024
Let's do a day-by-day breakdown of the games that matter in the season's final week. Starting with the undercard relegation race, where 4 of the 5 teams in danger are on the road to start the week:
October 3
Lutrul 6, Sitache 4
Sitache need to overcome a 6-game gap in these final 10 games to have a chance of survival. Blowing an early 4-2 lead isn't going to help matters. This was Lutrul's 100th win of the season, a mark that they have not reached since 2018. It's been a pretty nice season up there.
October 4
Cheshek 4, Nokir 3
Kupore 9, Shunna Eagles 8
Meka 7, Akashemo United 5
Mithazni 6, Amnanache 0
Mithazni pulls level with Akashemo United, though still in the relegation zone on run differential. The performance of the night goes to Hamafme Asi of Mithazni, who threw seven innings and allowed just two hits. The best
game, by a lot, was Eagles/Kupore. After going back and forth all night, the Eagles took a 7-6 lead in the 8th on a two-run pinch hit by Tsufa Irasoshi, answered by a two-run homer from Kupore 1B Yielna Sekao in the bottom of the 8th to make it 8-7. Down to their final out, Lakiru Shufaho tied the game with an opposite-field homer down the line, but Kupore backup catcher Teshepo Faseltsa won the game with just his second home run of the year.
October 5
Nokir 8, Cheshek 6
Kupore 12, Shunna Eagles 6
Meka 12, Akashemo United 4
Amnanache 6, Mithazni 0
Lutrul 3, Sitache 0
Not much to say when all five teams lose. That's good news for the teams already in a good position, I guess. Cheshek's Syshawe Arachihe, recently the September Batter of the Month, had two HR in a losing effort.
October 6
Nokir 7, Cheshek 4
Shunna Eagles 7, Kupore 3
Sitache 4, Lutrul 3
Big win for the Eagles, who came back with 5 runs in the 9th inning to win game 3 of their series, and are now a game and a half ahead of idle Akashemo and Mithazni. Cheshek's magic number to clinch safety remains at 4.
October 7
Cheshek 2, Nokir 0
Kupore 5, Shunna Eagles 4 (12 innings)
Akashemo United 9, Meka 2
Amnanache 4, Mithazni 1
Sitache 10, Lutrul 2
Akashemo pulls a game ahead of Mithazni - those are the two teams most in flux at this point. The Eagles/Kupore series continues to push out great game after great game. This was a 1-1 game going into extra innings, then both teams scored twice in the 11th inning before Hekewi Ruicho's walk-off home run in the bottom of the 12th overturned the sac fly that the Eagles had recorded.
October 8
Shunna Eagles 7, Kupore 2
Meka 4, Akashemo United 1
Amnanache 6, Mithazni 2
Sitache 7, Lutrul 4
The Eagles salvage a 2-for-5 result in their matchup with Kupore and pull 2 1/2 games clear of the drop zone. That might be enough if Akashemo United and Mithazni continue to struggle. Sitache is making it interesting, having won their series at Lutrul. Probably too little too late, but they have not clinched anything yet going into their weekend series at home against Meka.
October 9
Nokir 9, Cheshek 6
Meka 4, Akashemo United 1
Amnanache 2, Mithazni 0
All relegation-threatened teams lost, but that's good news for one member of the group -
Cheshek BC will not be relegated. Probably never should have been this close.
Now, to the main event - the promotion race:
October 4
Shunna Municipal 7, National 6
Westline 5, Mighty Oaks 4
Pasataki Galaxy 7, Tsapna 3
Both National and Westline staged dramatic comebacks in the late innings, Westline from down 4-0 and National from down 5-0. Westline's comeback was a walkoff, a two-run 9th-inning double from their young LF Chatiri Shosotsoke, while National scored 6 in the 7th inning to take a 6-5 lead at Muni, but left their rivals too much time to come back, which they did.
The two teams at the top are now tied, with Pasataki 4 games behind. The Galaxy will need an 8-2 week at a bare minimum to have a chance.
October 5
Shunna Municipal 4, National 3
Westline 2, Mighty Oaks 1
Tsapna 2, Pasataki Galaxy 1
More Muni magic - not a dramatic comeback, but they're going for it seeing the chance to deny their local rivals a championship. Westline's Tula Mitonone, last year's Pitcher of the Year, threw a gem for his penultimate start of the season with only two hits allowed to put his team back into first place. The late inning magic was found at Tsapna today, with the hosts getting a two-run homer from Pusituli Fomochi in the bottom of the 8th inning.
October 6
National 4, Shunna Municipal 3
Mighty Oaks 3, Westline 2 (10 innings)
Some really great baseball is being played here. National pulls back into a first-place tie, and they hold the run differential tiebreaker.
October 7
National 9, Shunna Municipal 2
Westline 4, Mighty Oaks 1
Pasataki Galaxy 6, Tsapna 2
Although the Galaxy won today, and sit just 4 1/2 games back, the top two teams each reached 115 wins today, meaning one of them will get to at least 118 wins after the weekend set.
Thus, the Galaxy are eliminated from championship contention at 110-73. A great season for them, and they'll still probably finish with the league's top run differential & Pythag record.
October 8
Westline 7, Mighty Oaks 6
With National idle, Westline pulls a half game ahead by squeaking this one out and taking 4 of 5 from Mighty Oaks. The Oaks left the bases loaded in the 9th inning, having already scored once to cut the lead in half.
October 9
Shunna Municipal 5, National 4
National fails to capitalize on their chance to even the score going into the final series of the season. However, this game is not likely to make the difference in the title decision, for reasons you will soon see.
Here are the overall results from the round:
Round 37
......Nokir 3-2 Cheshek - 3-4, 8-6, 7-4, 0-2, 9-6
...Akashemo 1-4 Meka - 5-7, 4-12, 9-2, 1-4, 2-4
...Mithazni 1-4 Amnanache - 6-0, 0-6, 1-4, 2-6, 0-2
...National 2-3 Muni - 6-7, 3-4, 4-3, 9-2, 4-5
...Pasataki 3-2 Tsapna - 7-3, 1-2, 6-2, 1-3, 6-2
Mighty Oaks 1-4 Westline - 4-5, 1-2, 3-2(10), 1-4, 6-7
.....Semyof 3-2 Hokrof - 5-0, 3-5, 5-3, 7-2, 3-5
....Sitache 3-2 Lutrul - 4-6, 0-3, 4-3, 10-2, 7-4
..BK Kepmem 3-2 Keleri - 4-1, 11-2, 2-3, 9-7, 3-6
..Sh.Eagles 2-3 Kupore - 8-9, 6-12, 7-3, 4-5(12), 7-2
And so, the full standings going into the final round are as follows:
Standings...........W..L
+1 
....Westline.. .116 69
-1 
....National.. .115 70
-- 
....P.Galaxy.. .111 74
-- 
......Semyof.. .106 79
-- 
......Kepmem.. .104 81
+2 
........Meka.. .102 83
-- 
......Lutrul.. .101 84
-2 
.Mighty Oaks.. .100 85
-- 
......Keleri.. ..99 86
+1 
...Amnanache.. ..93 92
-1 
......Tsapna.. ..92 93
-- 
.......Nokir.. ..91 94
-- 
........Muni.. ..88 97
-- 
......Kupore.. ..86 99
-- 
.....Cheshek.. ..81 104
-- 
...Sh.Eagles.. ..78 107
-- 
Akashemo Utd.. ..76 109
-----------------------------
-- 
....Mithazni.. ..75 110
-- 
.....Sitache.. ..72 113
-- 
......Hokrof.. ..64 121
In round 38, 4 series will have some sort of impact upon the relegation race, but only one series matters for the title race.
Championship Race
Westline BC will win the title if...- they win 3 or more games vs. National, or...
- they win 2 games while having a run differential of +7 or better in the series.
National BC will win the title if...- they win 3 games vs. Westline while having a run differential of -6 or better in the series, or...
- they win 4 or 5 games vs. Westline.
National winning 3 of 5 games would result in a tie at the top of the standings at 118-72. The first tiebreaker is run differential, for which National currently sits at +186 and Westline at +174. In this event, National is quite likely to have outscored Westline in the series, but if Westline's two wins are blowouts, they could potentially catch National in that department. A run differential of exactly +6 in Westline's favor would leave both teams at +180, necessitating the next tiebreaker, which is total runs scored. In that case, National comes out on top, hence why Westline would need to reach +7 for the series in order to win.
The pitching matchups are as follows (as currently scheduled, with visiting Westline listed first):
Game 1 (10/10): Tula Mitonone (17-7, 2.73) vs. Wucha Tekake (16-6, 4.34)
Game 2 (10/11): Hetsochu Tsuyepu (1-3, 7.07) vs. Saeloso Rima (4-2, 4.75)
Game 3 (10/12): Sefti Merefife (16-7, 3.50) vs. Latsal Awia (15-7, 4.26)
Game 4 (10/13): Misote Tsumeratsi (18-11, 3.40) vs. Pikiul Fofisa (9-4, 3.53)
Game 5 (10/14): Tune Chuotsa (0-2, 9.00) vs. Kiro Ponarf (14-10, 3.99)
Relegation Race
(2 of these teams relegated)
Shunna Municipal @ Shunna Eagles (78-102)
Amnanache BC @ Akashemo United (76-104)
Keleri BC @ Mithazni BC (75-105)
Meka BC @ Sitache BC (72-108)
All four teams are at home, but about half the fans will go home sad anyway. The teams' current order in the standings is also almost certain to be their order when it comes to run differential. So, any team that wants to leapfrog another will likely have to do so by an extra game. That's why I wouldn't expect too many fireworks here - by far the most likely scenario is that Sitache and Mithazni remain in the relegation positions. Two of these are local rivalries - after denting National's hopes at the title, Muni have the chance to crush the Eagles' hopes and dreams (with some help from the other teams listed). Keleri/Mithazni is also a local derby, the two teams representing the city of Hefem.