Quote:
Originally Posted by holes573
Twins_34 and darkcloud4579:
You seem to have missed the point of this analysis. Of course bad pitchers will do well at times - there are lots of factors (including luck) about why they should. I haven't argued that "it's weird" that it happens or that there "should be a guarantee" that a 38 pitcher should get shelled.
Instead, I've argued that luck indeed happens, but that above and beyond that there is a "good day" algorithm at work. And that too is fine (and probably matches real baseball).
Rather, I've argued that the application of a good day to poorer pitchers appears too heavily weighted. The frequency of a less than 2.00 ERA outing, for medium and good pitchers should be more than for bad pitchers.
|
I think my only real point is that OP is assuming that people are playing OOTP ceteris paribus and that's just not how most people play. If it would take a 231 game series to determine a statistically significant World Series champion, running an OOTP save without everyone running exactly the same conditions would only really give a semblance of insight into how the game actually works.
If players under say 50 OVR weren't remotely viable in any way, there'd be no point in modeling them, better players should not always perform better because it defies reality. How many "bad" players have went on benders where they were really good, only to never be heard from again?
I'm not disagreeing with your general premise or analysis, I'm saying that this is a philosophical argument about what someone values in a computer baseball simulation and that if OP wants a game that's more predictive and where "good ratings = always good" then they should design that game, because trying to foist that idea onto OOTP even if it's an "accurate" idea, is really about what sort of game the designers are trying to make and what sort of game people wish to play.
I see these arguments in Football Manager a lot too, and it usually boils down to "the game engine hates my favorite player" and "my favorite team isn't doing as well as I liked" or "the game is too easy" and that's just not a real critique on the game, but rather, how you're playing it?
You could design an OOTP universe where bad players are less useful to teams, but asking for massive tweaks to the engine for it to work more like you want it to work....just doesn't seem to make sense to me. It's a difference of opinion, not a flaw in the game engine.