Quote:
Originally Posted by holes573
Have you ever been frustrated by the frequency of stellar performance of low rated pitchers against your team? Starters that ought to be in AAA somehow pitch like Cy Young and just shut down your team.
Yes, I know that happens in real life. But, I'm questioning the frequency with which it happens in OOTP. My impression is that the developers have included some random element for pitchers that essentially gives them "good days," "regular days" or "bad days." And, if a pitcher is having a "good day," that affects their whole performance for the day - they not only shut your team down for an inning or two, but for their whole performance that day, until they tire.
I have now done a detailed analysis of all the starters that faced my team for a season (I was playing the Giants in 1964 with OOTP 25). Using a 20-80 system, I broke down starters that faced my team into three quality groups: 43 and lower, 44-48 and 49 and higher.
Each group of starters had good days and bad days. I defined a "good day" as having an ERA for that start of less than 2.00 (essentially allowing 0 or 1 ER for the outing). Against my team (which had the #1 offense in the NL), the percentage of "good days" for each group were:
43 and lower: 33% good days
44-48: 28% good days
49+: 23% good days
(Against all teams, not just against the Giants, the 43 and lower group had a rate of 28% good days.)
As a statistician, I know the differences between these groups do not reach statistical significance, but at the least we can conclude that the three groups were essentially equivalent in their percentages of good days.
By why should that be? Bad pitchers shouldn't have just as many days with 0 or 1 ER as Medium and Good pitchers. In addition, should as many as one-third of Bad pitchers' outings be dominant? That's not only frustrating to face, but I don't believe it's realistic. Perhaps the OOTP algorithm needs to be adjusted.
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This is realistic and wonderful and shows why the game is so good. You all are so hellbent on the game being a ratings = good dice roller and that's just not real life. Anybody in the bigs can have a hot streak, hot week or hot day. It's not that weird. Bad is an aggregate thing.