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I think you're undervaluing Wagner, Mauer, and Utley. I would think Billy Wagner is "maybe" even a small hall guy. All 3 of them are probably getting voted in IRL, but your SS doesn't seem to agree, probably due to position.
You probably have too many 1st ballot big hall guys and too many maybe big hall guys.
Critiques aside, I like all that you've done with this! It's very interesting. Tweak it just a little bit and you could make some good predictions.
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