Originally Posted by thehef
Is "3rd time time through..." supported by the stats, historically speaking?
I realize it's not quite the same statistic, but I looked up the 300-game-winners - W Johnson, Feller, Carlton, Spahn, Maddux, Ryan, Sutton, Perry, Seaver, Glavine, R Johnson, Grove, Wynn, plus Koufax, Drysdale, Hershiser, Schilling, Clemens, Valenzuela - and of their various Situational Splits, none had a "Close & Late" drop-off in AVG or OBP of any significance. Many had better numbers. The only one who sort of stuck out was Phil Niekro, whose Close & Late AVG was higher by a mere 5 points, but whose OBP was 14 points higher...
Again, I realize this is not the same stat, but it would at least suggest that - historically if not currently - among the better pitchers, they did not perform worse after going through the lineup a couple of times.
And even in looking at a few of the best current pitchers, Kershaw, Bauer, Strasburg, Verlander, Cole all suffer no drop-off in Close & Late. Of the handful + I looked up, deGrom was the only exception.
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