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Amazin69 · 09-02-2023, 09:05 PM

I haven't bet legit funds in this century (I went bust in 1990, then did a few tokens on trips to LV in the 1990s), but let's dust off the old brain here.

I'll try to keep to Larry Merchant's rules (from his 1972 book, The National Football Lottery)

• Don't bet every game. Stick to things you feel certain about.

• Don't bet a game just because it's on TV.

• Don't bet a wild spread of amounts. If your $100 bet goes down, you need 11 $10 bets to get your money back. (Don't forget the 11-10 vigorish.) If the $10 bets were so certain, you'd be betting more. All you're doing is throwing away random $11 losses. That's money, too. (Okay, fake money, whatever.)

• Don't give more than 7 points. What's the point of being a brilliant handicapper if you end up beaten by a backdoor cover?

• Don't bet an underdog unless you think it can win. Do you really want your bet coming down to "hope the better team takes it easy"?

• If you're doing well, step up your bets a bit, but don't go crazy. Don't throw away all your good work at once.

• If you're in a hole, don't try and win it all back at once. That's a recipe for getting buried.

• Don't bet the rent money. What are you, stupid?

(Also, stay away from parlays, but I don't think we're doing them here.)

Okay, let's make some bets!

Green Bay (+1) at Chicago. Packers have something to prove. Can't imagine they can't beat the Bears just because Rodgers is gone. $75

Philadelphia (-3.5) at New England. Have to think the linemakers/public are still giving NE points just for Belichick. I think that skews things. As with the first game, you have a better team with something to prove. Have to like that. $75

Dallas (-2.5) at NY Giants. Giants looked like hot garbage against the Jets. Yes, it was an exhibition and Jones didn't play, but those teams play that one for real and the Giants looked really bad. Also, they had a lot of injuries coming in and racked up more. Dallas is also notably better, and has something to prove. $50

So, let's see if I have anything resembling a clue.

09-02-2023, 09:05 PM	#7
Amazin69 Banned Join Date: Nov 2010 Location: Palmetto Pride! Posts: 4,218 Infractions: 0/4 (4)	I haven't bet legit funds in this century (I went bust in 1990, then did a few tokens on trips to LV in the 1990s), but let's dust off the old brain here. I'll try to keep to Larry Merchant's rules (from his 1972 book, The National Football Lottery) • Don't bet every game. Stick to things you feel certain about. • Don't bet a game just because it's on TV. • Don't bet a wild spread of amounts. If your $100 bet goes down, you need 11 $10 bets to get your money back. (Don't forget the 11-10 vigorish.) If the $10 bets were so certain, you'd be betting more. All you're doing is throwing away random $11 losses. That's money, too. (Okay, fake money, whatever.) • Don't give more than 7 points. What's the point of being a brilliant handicapper if you end up beaten by a backdoor cover? • Don't bet an underdog unless you think it can win. Do you really want your bet coming down to "hope the better team takes it easy"? • If you're doing well, step up your bets a bit, but don't go crazy. Don't throw away all your good work at once. • If you're in a hole, don't try and win it all back at once. That's a recipe for getting buried. • Don't bet the rent money. What are you, stupid? (Also, stay away from parlays, but I don't think we're doing them here.) Okay, let's make some bets! Green Bay (+1) at Chicago. Packers have something to prove. Can't imagine they can't beat the Bears just because Rodgers is gone. $75 Philadelphia (-3.5) at New England. Have to think the linemakers/public are still giving NE points just for Belichick. I think that skews things. As with the first game, you have a better team with something to prove. Have to like that. $75 Dallas (-2.5) at NY Giants. Giants looked like hot garbage against the Jets. Yes, it was an exhibition and Jones didn't play, but those teams play that one for real and the Giants looked really bad. Also, they had a lot of injuries coming in and racked up more. Dallas is also notably better, and has something to prove. $50 So, let's see if I have anything resembling a clue. Last edited by Amazin69; 09-03-2023 at 02:31 PM.