Quote:
Originally Posted by uruguru
sequencing luck? Are you suggesting that base situations have no effect on hitting and pitching effectivness?
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There’s a world of difference between “no effect” and”a different effect for different pitchers”, which has yet to be demonstrated AFAIK. Certainly a lot of sequencing “luck” is in fact luck even though most pitchers are a little worse with a man on first. Also, in a lot of those cases a guy who allows a lot of baserunners on base will in fact have more of those men on base situations, which means that sequencing isn’t going to be so much of a factor.
Sequencing is absolutely an issue you see with relief pitchers and sequencing “luck” is often a thing that sees a guy have a low ERA one year and a high ERA the next. Again, if you want to use ERA, feel free. I don’t use FIP myself specifically because I want to reduce my access to modern knowledge about the way the game works. It’s certainly not useless and sequencing luck is a huge part of why it’s more reliable than straight up ERA.