1971 Recap: No team in baseball experienced a bigger fall from grace than the Reds. They started out slow, then fell apart in May, continued that trend for most of the summer, and then, just in case the fanbase thought they might be good to go for 1972 after an 18-11 August, they suffered their worst month of all in September and just missed 90 losses.
1972 Outlook: The fall seemed to be based on the complete collapse of the pitching staff, but if that wasn't bad enough the Reds' offense fell from 2nd in the league to 9th - and dead last in average, too. One year removed from 98 wins, I'd be very surprised if this team wins 80 games next year.
Pitching
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Code:
Pitching Age BT W L WL % ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9
Waiters, Steve 27 LL 21 12 .636 2.75 38 38 0 12 2 0 294.2 261 101 90 16 83 4 200 1.167 100.0 0.5 2.5 6.1
Hagan, Joe 30 RR 9 17 .346 3.86 35 33 0 7 2 0 249.2 252 123 107 39 79 2 155 1.326 100.0 1.4 2.8 5.6
Vanover, Bill 30 SR 13 14 .481 3.77 32 32 0 6 1 0 231.1 250 110 97 18 48 6 94 1.288 100.0 0.7 1.9 3.7
Bertan, Tom 28 RR 2 10 .167 7.51 29 14 7 1 0 0 109.0 124 94 91 23 49 2 79 1.587 100.0 1.9 4.0 6.5
Olmos, Edward James 23 SR 3 5 .375 2.51 39 0 33 0 0 14 64.2 61 22 18 3 21 5 43 1.268 100.0 0.4 2.9 6.0
Rosas, Ricky 28 RR 7 13 .350 4.93 47 9 32 0 0 9 107.2 106 62 59 17 55 3 80 1.495 100.0 1.4 4.6 6.7
Panarello, Graham 26 RR 1 5 .167 3.82 34 6 11 2 1 1 75.1 69 32 32 4 39 1 47 1.434 100.0 0.5 4.7 5.6
Shrewsbury, Greg 29 RR 3 4 .429 4.63 31 3 17 0 0 1 58.1 69 31 30 6 17 2 41 1.474 100.0 0.9 2.6 6.3
Bryant, Terrance 33 LL 3 0 1.000 1.35 29 0 12 0 0 2 26.2 19 4 4 0 11 2 9 1.125 100.0 0.0 3.7 3.0
Johnston, Mike 34 RR 5 3 .625 3.52 18 12 3 1 0 0 92.0 95 36 36 1 51 4 55 1.587 100.0 0.1 5.0 5.4
Maurice, Bastien 26 RL 3 2 .600 4.66 14 6 3 0 0 0 46.1 42 26 24 5 18 0 23 1.295 100.0 1.0 3.5 4.5
Rivera, Manny 25 RR 2 2 .500 3.66 21 2 10 0 0 2 32.0 24 13 13 7 5 0 11 0.906 100.0 2.0 1.4 3.1
Williams, David 30 RR 0 1 .000 5.30 3 3 0 0 0 0 18.2 21 13 11 3 6 0 7 1.446 100.0 1.4 2.9 3.4
Bell, Dave 25 RR 0 1 .000 5.25 2 2 0 0 0 0 12.0 14 7 7 4 3 0 6 1.417 100.0 3.0 2.3 4.5
Hale, Zach 25 LL 0 0 .000 18.69 7 0 0 0 0 0 4.1 9 9 9 3 4 0 5 3.000 100.0 6.2 8.3 10.4
Elser, Garrett 28 RR 0 0 .000 13.50 5 0 0 0 0 0 3.1 2 5 5 0 2 0 4 1.200 100.0 0.0 5.4 10.8
Reyes, Hugo 25 RR 1 0 1.000 5.40 2 2 0 0 0 0 6.2 8 4 4 0 2 0 3 1.500 100.0 0.0 2.7 4.1
Pierson, Pat 25 LL 0 0 .000 1.59 4 0 1 0 0 0 5.2 8 3 1 1 0 0 0 1.412 100.0 1.6 0.0 0.0
Yates, Brian 26 SR 0 0 .000 13.50 2 0 0 0 0 0 1.1 3 2 2 1 2 0 2 3.750 100.0 6.8 13.5 13.5
Lopez, Pete 28 RR 0 0 .000 0.00 2 0 0 0 0 0 1.1 0 0 0 0 4 1 1 3.000 100.0 0.0 27.0 6.8
Stephens, Geoff 26 RR 0 0 .000 9.00 1 0 0 0 0 0 1.0 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 2.000 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Vogel, Justin 26 RR 0 0 .000 0.00 1 0 1 0 0 0 1.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.000 100.0 0.0 0.0 9.0
Code:
Starting Pitching GS Wgs Lgs ND Wchp LTuf WTm LTm tmW-L% CG SHO QS QS% GmScA Best Wrst sDR lDR RS/GS RS/9 IP/GS Pit/GS <80 80-99 100-119 >=120 Max
Waiters, Steve 38 21 12 5 0 7 23 15 0.605 12 2 31 82% 60 86 25 21 8 3.9 4.6 7.8 118 0 3 18 17 151
Hagan, Joe 33 9 16 8 1 6 14 19 0.424 7 2 18 55% 52 87 28 17 10 3.2 3.9 7.4 112 1 3 20 9 161
Vanover, Bill 32 13 14 5 3 9 15 17 0.469 6 1 22 69% 51 78 16 9 11 3.4 4.2 7.2 104 2 10 16 4 138
Bertan, Tom 14 1 10 3 1 2 3 11 0.214 1 0 4 29% 40 69 12 10 2 1.9 2.7 6.3 109 1 5 4 4 175
Johnston, Mike 12 4 2 6 0 0 6 6 0.500 1 0 9 75% 54 75 38 0 4 4.5 5.8 6.9 107 0 4 6 2 127
Rosas, Ricky 9 4 4 1 0 2 4 5 0.444 0 0 6 67% 45 71 8 0 2 2.8 4.2 5.9 97 2 3 3 1 123
Panarello, Graham 6 1 3 2 0 2 2 4 0.333 2 1 5 83% 49 79 15 1 3 1.7 2.3 6.6 104 1 1 2 2 132
Maurice, Bastien 6 3 2 1 0 0 3 3 0.500 0 0 3 50% 43 67 7 4 2 4.0 5.8 6.2 102 0 3 3 0 119
Shrewsbury, Greg 3 1 2 0 0 1 1 2 0.333 0 0 2 67% 41 74 6 1 1 2.3 3.8 5.6 88 1 1 1 0 110
Williams, David 3 0 1 2 0 0 1 2 0.333 0 0 2 67% 43 56 28 0 2 2.7 3.9 6.2 105 0 1 2 0 108
Reyes, Hugo 2 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0.500 0 0 0 00% 46 51 42 0 2 2.5 6.8 3.3 59 1 0 1 0 115
Rivera, Manny 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 0.000 0 0 0 00% 27 39 15 0 2 0.0 0.0 5.3 79 1 1 0 0 83
Bell, Dave 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 0.000 0 0 1 50% 46 57 34 0 2 2.5 3.8 6.0 103 0 1 1 0 110
Code:
Relief Pitching GR Wgr Lgr SVOpp Sv BSv SV% SvSit Hld IR IRS IRS% ALi LevHi LevMd LevLo Run Emp <3O >3O 0DR 1DR 2DR 3+DR Out/GR Pit/GR
Olmos, Edward James 39 3 5 19 14 5 74% 19 0 6 0 0% 1.660 18 16 16 3 36 1 18 7 12 9 11 5.0 24
Rosas, Ricky 38 3 9 13 9 4 69% 13 0 13 4 24% 1.637 17 15 15 6 32 5 16 9 11 6 12 4.3 24
Bryant, Terrance 29 3 0 2 2 0 100% 7 5 16 1 6% 1.190 9 13 13 10 19 9 2 8 6 7 8 2.8 14
Shrewsbury, Greg 28 2 2 1 1 0 100% 4 3 12 3 20% 0.844 7 19 19 6 22 2 13 4 3 6 15 4.5 24
Panarello, Graham 28 0 2 1 1 0 100% 4 3 9 5 36% 0.810 5 19 19 7 21 4 8 5 3 7 13 3.8 20
Rivera, Manny 19 2 0 2 2 0 100% 5 3 11 1 8% 1.077 5 8 8 7 12 4 5 7 4 2 6 3.4 13
Bertan, Tom 15 1 0 0 0 0 0% 2 2 8 2 20% 0.645 3 10 10 6 9 4 5 2 5 2 6 4.2 24
Maurice, Bastien 8 0 0 0 0 0 0% 1 1 2 0 0% 0.389 0 6 6 2 6 1 2 3 0 3 2 3.4 11
Hale, Zach 7 0 0 0 0 0 0% 1 1 7 7 50% 0.598 1 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 2 4 3.6 32
Johnston, Mike 6 1 1 0 0 0 0% 0 0 3 1 25% 0.669 2 4 4 2 4 0 2 1 0 1 4 4.3 29
Elser, Garrett 5 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0 0 2 2 50% 0.265 0 5 5 1 4 0 2 0 1 0 4 3.8 24
Pierson, Pat 4 0 0 1 0 1 0% 1 0 2 2 50% 1.991 2 2 2 1 3 1 1 0 0 1 3 4.3 16
Hagan, Joe 2 0 1 0 0 0 0% 0 0 1 0 0% 0.583 0 2 2 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 2 10.5 50
Yates, Brian 2 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0 0 1 1 50% 0.444 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 2.0 17
Lopez, Pete 2 0 0 0 0 0 0% 1 1 1 0 0% 1.025 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 2.0 18
Stephens, Geoff 1 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0 0% 0.260 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 3.0 14
Vogel, Justin 1 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0 0% 0.033 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 3.0 8
All things considered,
Steve Waiters turned in a hell of a season. From start to finish he was practically the only functional member of this highly dysfunctional pitching staff and, I have to add, team. Any kind of run support would have for surely gotten him some support for the Cy Young Award; as it stood he had 7 tough losses and had to work for every single victory he got (0 cheap wins, meaning that every one of them was a quality start). His #2 guy, at least as the season progressed, wound up being
"Bullet" Bill Vanover a man who, in spite of the nickname and in spite of a fastball that is occasionally known to trip the mid-90s, is about as pure a finesse pitcher as you can get. Although his ERA was slightly above his career mark of 3.64, he was incredibly consistent throughout the season and finished with the 2nd highest Quality Start total of his career with 22 (in 1967, a year he went to the All-Star Game, Vanover was 11-13, 2.79 with the Senators and had 23 QSes). The other guy who finished out the year in the rotation (I mean, I tried out a lot of guys in September; this guy's last start came on the 18th) was
Joe Hagan, who dropped his ERA by 40 points compared to the season prior but almost completely flipped his won-llst record from 20-12 to 9-17. Hagan also led the entire National League in HRs allowed with 39. Dingers have plagued him - some would call this his Waterloo - his entire career.
The back of that rotation... man.
Tom Bertan has to get at least one more chance. The 28 year old from the tiny but booming suburb of St. Louis called Bethalto, Illinois went from being a back-end Cy Young Award candidate in 1970 (20-9, 3.69) to one of the worst pitchers in baseball in 1971. What happened? He lost a big chunk of the control that made him effective - his BB/9 ballooned from 2.4 to 4.0 - and to make matters worse, he missed over the plate with his curveball as often as he missed outside of it. He'd already led the league in HRs allowed in '70 with 36 but last year's 23 allowed in 109 innings represented a 50% increase in the rates. I went so far as to shut him down with a Miguel Batista style "he can't pitch" injury; his last game came on July 23rd. Given the very high chance Bertan can't come back, the Reds enjoyed what
Hugo Reyes did in the minor leagues enough that he could get a chance. We're not so sure. He was 12-8 with a sparkling 2.08 ERA but allowed 109 walks vs just 72 Ks in 160 innings spent in AAA Indianapolis. That feels unsustainable. Scouts do like his low to mid 90s 4 seamer but that may not be enough.
Danny Alejo (watch this space) was 12-14 in AA Trois-Rivieres but completed 19 of his 29 starts there and might be ready to skip a level. Nothing to lose so I'll give him a look.
The bullpen was arguably the source of panic in 1971.
Edward James Olmos eventually emerged as the stopper with all right results as he told his teammates to "stand and deliver" for him (movie joke!). I'm really, really not sure that he has the stuff to survive as a top-of-the-line short reliever if I'm being honest. The fact that he likes to keep the ball on the ground helps - his GB% was actually only 44% but he only allowed 0.4 HR/9 - in the minors he'd consistently been in the high 50s to 60s so expect there to not be a lot of dingers going forward either. He had to take over for
Ricky Rosas who led the NL in saves in 1970 but completely fell apart last year. Stop me if you've heard this one before: Rosas allowed 17 HRs in 107.2 IP, so the longball was a huge factor. Another one though was that his electric stuff that got him 10.8 Ks per 9 innings in 1970 sort of evaporated last season. In an attempt to make some use of him as well as the rotation, Rosas got 9 starts last season, which were not great: 4-4, 5.61 and just 5.8 K/9. Even as a reliever though he only averaged 7.6/9, which is well above average but not good enough when whiffs is all you rely on.
Mike Johnston is an interesting piece that's still on the roster somehow. He was actually pretty decent last year when he played. He missed half of 1969 and half of 1970 so the bullpen might mean less wear and tear on his arm going forward. On the other hand, he's a former 18 game winner for the Cardinals, a team for whom he won 4 World Series for in his youth, so maybe the rotation is where he belongs after all.
Batting
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Code:
Batting Age BT G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS DP BA OBP SLG Pos
Williams, Oliver 27 RR 124 422 30 102 12 0 7 44 37 61 0 0 10 .242 .303 .320 2*
Day, Jarrod 27 LR 61 159 28 41 11 1 7 32 29 29 0 0 1 .258 .364 .472 2
Oliver Williams followed up an All-Star selection in his first year as a starter with a campaign tha puts his future with the Reds in doubt. He's always been considered a hitting-first catcher, riding among other things a great 1966 in A ball when he went .310/11/83 with a an OPS over 800. Last year he slumped across the board on offense but especially in terms of power; his .320 slugging percentage was the 2nd lowest in all of baseball among catchers with at least 350 PAs (Montreal's Roberto Carranco was the only guy worse). A season like that only makes a team like Cincinnati more critical of defensive liabilities, especially with an up the middle position, and Williams has never had more than an adequate arm.
Jarrod Day is nobody's idea of a long term guy but moved into the lefty half of a platoon in the last couple of months and performed very well. He looks like a guy who might get a lot more PT. They also have
Everton Fallas (name change imminent) ready in AAA, although he only had 86 at-bats last season at that level and might still be a year away.
Code:
Batting Age BT G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS DP BA OBP SLG Pos
Miller, Nick 26 LL 106 301 37 81 11 3 6 33 33 50 16 3 5 .269 .346 .385 39/7
Flores, John 26 SR 39 102 12 22 1 2 4 12 11 23 0 0 2 .216 .287 .382 34/6
Clark, Stephen 33 LL 32 84 10 21 4 1 2 4 7 5 0 0 3 .250 .313 .393 3
Rivera, Alonzo 23 LL 21 62 7 25 6 0 3 6 3 5 0 0 1 .403 .424 .645 3
Schweitzer, Todd 23 LL 24 57 1 11 2 0 0 3 3 15 1 0 1 .193 .242 .228 3
Magoni, Mauro 32 RR 26 51 5 8 2 0 0 2 3 13 0 0 1 .157 .200 .196 3/5
Hopkins, Robert 26 RR 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000
Ortiz, Pedro 28 RR 148 622 77 165 31 6 6 43 68 79 28 16 5 .265 .338 .363 4*
Kraljevic, Bobby 28 LR 143 497 58 120 20 2 12 58 87 67 1 3 11 .241 .351 .362 5*/3
Guerrero, Fidelio 25 LR 44 83 9 25 4 2 4 15 11 18 1 2 1 .301 .385 .542 5/3
Wendt, Mike 27 RR 143 471 44 111 14 6 10 54 26 83 17 6 13 .236 .273 .355 6*
Dorman, Scott 26 RR 74 136 11 30 4 5 1 14 10 28 2 2 5 .221 .275 .346 65
Downing, Matt 37 RR 13 20 6 5 3 0 0 1 2 4 0 0 0 .250 .348 .400 /645
First base was turmoil central, with longtime starter
Stephen Clark mouthing his way off the team and into Japan. For what it's worth he hit .306/4/23 for the Taiyo Whales last year; as rough of a campaign as he had in 1970 (.252/16/84), perhaps he's found his stroke overseas. Losing him caused the Reds to look a few different directions, from dropping
Junior Cannon down there for a while and then, when it was established that Cannon was not really having a good enough season to carry the bat there, turning to former Cleveland Indians pinch-hitter
Nick Miller. Something something the 3rd best first baseman in Cleveland is still pretty good? Well, he kind of wasn't. The team really likes
Alonzo Rivera though and likes him even more after he hit over .400 in September. You'd think from the age and the lack of at-bats that Rivera was a pure prospect call-up but no: he was a big-time pinch-hitter for the Reds in the 2nd half of 1970 and was expected to compete with Stephen Clark in '71. Then he fractured his knee on April 14th and didn't play again until September 25th. The Reds are crossing their fingers that that huge loss was just a fluke.
Pedro Ortiz lost 40 points off of his average last season and went from a top flight leadoff man, one who flirted with 100 runs scored in '70 (he finished with 98, good for 9th in the NL) to an average hitter. His reputation carried him into his 5th All-Star berth and a combination of good range and great hands (.988 FA last season) got him his 2nd Gold Glove. It's very, very unlikely the Reds are going to pull the plug on Ortiz so quickly.
Bobby Kraljevic was teeeeerrible for the entire first half of the year. As of July 30th he was hitting just .203 with a slugging average of .309, a far, far cry from the .297 he hit the year before as a cornerstone of a powerful Reds lineup. Then he had a fantastic August - .387/2/12, possibly Player of the Month levels of good if he'd have started the whole time - and a decent enough September (.261/2/5) to pull the numbers back to near respectable levels. Despite the strong finish he faces a crossroads this season.
Fidelio Guerrero filled in for Bobby K a lot when he was hurt or just being benched for ineffectiveness but probably isn't the future at the position. That said, a quick look at the farm indicates that 2 of the potential replacements struggled to hit and the third one is going to start the season in short season A ball.
Mike Wendt is a guy you put up with at shortstop when he's an above average hitter because good men are hard to find at that position. He was not above average last year, not even close. Who to replace him with, though?
Scott Forman is the obvious answer but the 2nd round pick in 1967 hit the way he's hit throughout his minor league career, which is to say not much. He's a marginally better fielder than Wendt, with only average range for a shortstop but a cannon for an arm and hands that might be the best in the business. Is that enough?
Code:
Batting Age BT G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS DP BA OBP SLG Pos
Gomez, Carlos 29 RL 102 317 54 91 19 3 19 66 45 65 0 1 3 .287 .373 .546 7
Cannon, Junior 27 LL 137 469 65 104 14 1 18 72 74 88 4 1 8 .222 .325 .371 739
Martinez, Jerry 38 RL 46 50 8 10 1 0 5 11 3 5 0 0 2 .200 .236 .520 /7
Burwell, Sonny 23 LR 109 432 64 129 24 4 4 42 52 101 33 8 1 .299 .368 .400 8/9
Tooley, Mark 35 RR 58 193 26 40 6 2 4 16 18 41 3 3 3 .207 .269 .321 8/9
Wilkes, Chris 28 RR 13 18 1 2 0 0 1 1 0 3 0 2 1 .111 .100 .278 /87
Beaulieu, Bobby 24 SR 83 278 46 74 15 8 8 44 38 55 6 4 2 .266 .360 .464 9/85
Alvarez, Manuel 37 RR 30 97 12 22 5 0 2 6 6 12 0 0 3 .227 .269 .340 9
bin Naim, Dennis 24 LL 27 67 8 18 2 0 0 5 4 12 0 0 1 .269 .319 .299 /987
Cowan, Greg 30 LL 20 42 6 10 3 0 3 3 3 13 0 1 0 .238 .289 .524 /97
Penn, John 29 RL 22 37 4 11 1 1 1 4 1 4 0 0 0 .297 .316 .459 /987
Menke, Ben 30 RR 9 14 1 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 1 0 0 .143 .250 .143 /98
Carlos Gomez was acquired from the Padres on May 13 and went from hitting .172 with just 2 HRs in 116 AB with the California club to .287/19/66 with the Reds. Given the way everything else went wrong last year, this was very positive. In fact, speaking of "wrong",
Junior Cannon was so bad in his 3rd year in the big leagues that his entire career is now in doubt. Remember, this is the guy who won the NL ROY in '69 thanks to hitting .354 with 25 HRs in 73 games. His average has fallen precipitously since that monster half-season and last year he didn't even hit for all that much power. Going forward, it's hard to even see where he'll be given a chance to bounce back on this roster. His game isn't really even built for pinch-hitting, where you want balls put in play and high average. Cannon is also reportedly very unhappy with the composition of the team and his lack of a role. Good. Be unhappy.
Actually, centerfield was another spot where the Reds' overall storyline was circumvented, because
Sonny Burwell did great. In spite of not sticking in the major leagues until the Reds acquired him on May 29, the rookie won a trip to the All-Star Game - this in spite of not yet even clearing the threshold for prospect ABs; he was named the #74 prospect the week before the Midsummer Classic - and surely could have won the ROY if it wasn't for Paul McCartney. He also finished 3rd in the league in steals with 34. One thing he'll want to work on going forward is that K rate; Burwell still gets on base a lot because of his pure speed, but it's hard to see a world where he strikes out 100+ times a year and flirts with .300 every season.
Right field was a minus overall but if everything breaks right it'll be a huge, huge plus. That's because the Reds figure to have slugger
Justin Jensen back. Jensen suffered a broken ankle in spring training and then landed on it wrong while recovering in June and wound up missing the whole season because of it. Jensen hit 42 HRs for Cincinnati in 1970 so needless to say, this was a massive loss. The Reds tried using Cannon and
Bobby Beaulieu in his stead but only with limited success. Beaulieu at least looks like he should fit in as a 4th OFer and pinch-hitter. Jensen, it should be noted, is 36 years old and so the Reds probably can't count on him to play 150 games in the best of circumstances.