Recap: The Reds came from basically out of nowhere to win the most games in baseball, dispatch an overmatched Pirates team in the NLCS, and then falter to a more experienced Minnesota Twins team. This season should be seen as anything but a disappointment, however: the Reds played well from pillar to post and simply refused to lose from July 29 to the end of the year (40-20, and that includes a meaningless October 1 contest against the Braves), overcoming a 3 game gap to the Astros to win the division by 3.
History: The Reds also won the pennant in 1960, falling to the Yankees in 6 games, but this team was a much, much better team. This was the winningest team in Reds' history and in only 1 other year - 1967, when offenses were still in hibernation - did they yield a lower ERA than last year's 3.39.
Outlook: Nothing about this team makes me think they're going to fall off at all. They have a great pitching staff led by, arguably, the best pitcher in baseball and a good young lineup that has just 2 starters over the age of 30. If we wake up in 1980 and the 70s was the Reds Decade, I would be completely unsurprised.
Rotation
Code:
Pitching Age BT W L WL % ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9
Waiters, Steve 26 LL 25 6 .806 2.47 37 37 0 15 8 0 298.1 234 85 82 20 80 2 267 1.053 7.1 0.6 2.4 8.1
Hagan, Joe 29 RR 20 12 .000 3.53 36 36 0 8 2 0 249.1 235 122 118 31 98 2 214 1.281 8.4 1.1 3.5 7.7
Bertan, Tom 27 RR 20 9 .690 3.69 36 36 0 6 1 0 256.0 227 120 105 36 69 2 169 1.156 8.0 1.3 2.4 5.9
Vanover, Bill 29 SR 10 8 .556 3.35 31 26 2 5 2 0 196.0 192 87 73 15 27 4 111 1.117 8.8 0.7 1.2 5.1
Johnston, Mike 33 RR 5 5 .500 3.78 15 15 0 1 0 0 102.1 91 48 43 12 38 4 73 1.261 8.0 1.1 3.3 6.4
Panarello, Graham 25 RR 5 3 .625 3.15 13 8 2 3 0 0 68.2 65 25 24 2 26 0 57 1.325 8.5 0.3 3.4 7.5
Williams, David 29 RR 0 1 .000 4.76 1 1 0 0 0 0 5.2 6 3 3 0 2 0 0 1.412 9.5 0.0 3.2 0.0
Who you like for the 1970 NL Cy Young depends on how much you value victories.
Steve Waiters led the league in innings pitched, strikeouts, and shutouts and finished 2nd in ERA, wins, and winning percentage. That sounds like a Cy Young season to us, even if the Phillies' Marius Gaddi did set a modern record for wins with 27. Heck, if you include the postseason, Waiters was 28-7 overall, whereas Gaddi was sitting at home watching the Series on TV. If nothing else, you have to expect that Waiters vs Gaddi will be a marquee matchup for many years to come.
Tom Bertan was named as the #2 starter for the postseason thanks to him being just a little bit more consistent than
Joe Hagan but also presenting more of a contrast with the nasty stuff of Steve Waiters. Bertan is a hard, hard thrower who hits 95 on the radar gun but his stuff is a fair bit straighter, so he profiles as more of a finesse guy. Their curveballs - an out pitch for both - is a study in contrasts: while Waiters throws a nasty 12-to-6 curve that practically behaves like a forkball, only with more break, Bertan's comes across at a 3/4 angle and left-handed batters see it a lot better. 19 of the league-high 36 HRs Bertan allowed were to lefties. Hagan sits kind of in the middle of both, combining a low-90s fastball with a devastating change of pace that also sometimes gets away from him (he led the league in HRs allowed himself in 1966 with 32, and finished 5th in the NL in that mark last year).
The last spot in the rotation should see a battle between
"Bullet Bill" Vanover and
Graham Panarello. Vanover should have the inside track, as he's a 2 time All-Star with Washington and carried the #4 starter spot for most of the season last year. They call him "Bullet Bill" because he throws bullets; however, his low-90s fastball is on the straight side and his stuff is not electric; he stays in games by refusing the give up easy walks. Panarello is a former Angels prospect, brought over in what now looks like a terribly unbalanced trade for catcher Mike Perez (the Reds also got Tom Bertan back in that deal; they did give up OF Nelson Vargas, who has produced well for California) who never quite cashed in on the promise that saw him as the #14 prospect in baseball as of spring training 1967. He was a combined 11-7, 3.13 ERA between AAA And the major leagues last year; previously he struggled massively with control but last season he looked like he was able to stay in the zone a lot more.
Bullpen
Code:
Pitching Age BT W L WL % ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9
Rosas, Ricky 27 RR 7 9 .438 3.27 65 0 56 0 0 31 88.0 77 37 32 10 35 3 106 1.273 7.9 1.0 3.6 10.8
Shrewsbury, Greg 28 RR 4 4 .500 2.69 57 0 35 0 0 5 73.2 69 31 22 6 14 1 56 1.127 8.4 0.7 1.7 6.8
Hale, Zach 24 LL 0 0 .000 2.78 30 0 11 0 0 1 32.1 15 11 10 4 23 1 48 1.175 4.2 1.1 6.4 13.4
Elser, Garrett 27 RR 1 3 .250 2.89 23 1 10 0 0 0 37.1 34 15 12 4 31 0 39 1.741 8.2 1.0 7.5 9.4
Lopez, Pete 27 RR 1 2 .333 4.43 16 0 6 0 0 0 20.1 17 10 10 3 8 2 17 1.230 7.5 1.3 3.5 7.5
Hall, Andy 28 RR 0 1 .000 2.03 6 2 0 0 0 0 13.1 9 3 3 0 5 0 7 1.050 6.1 0.0 3.4 4.7
Rosanova, Cory 26 RR 0 1 .000 8.22 6 0 1 0 0 0 7.2 10 7 7 0 8 1 6 2.348 11.7 0.0 9.4 7.0
Yates, Brian 25 SR 0 0 .000 8.10 1 0 0 0 0 0 3.1 4 3 3 0 1 0 3 1.500 10.8 0.0 2.7 8.1
Labbe, John 29 RR 0 0 .000 9.00 1 0 1 0 0 0 1.0 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 3.000 27.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ricky Rosas led the league in saves but also blew 9 opportunities and was only so-so in high-leverage situations (.248 BA, 7 HRs and 30 RBI in 202 AB). Sometimes he tries too hard to strike everyone out with his admittedly wicked slider and that can lead to fat pitches that get hit a long way. In the second half, the Reds also leaned heavily on right-hander
Greg Shrewsbury and left-hander
Zach Hale. Shrewsbury was more of a classically effective set-up man, combining a lively 90MPH fastball with a good changeup. He started 40 games between 1968 and 1969 but didn't see time in the rotation in 1970; when he's in the rotation he adds a slider to his repertoire. Hale is pure heat, which he's not always able to control himself. Think a left-handed Ryne Duren. It definitely works for him though, at least for an inning at a time.
Catcher
Code:
Batting Age BT G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS DP BA OBP SLG Pos
Williams, Oliver 26 RR 123 438 61 120 23 1 6 64 59 70 0 0 18 .274 .363 .372 2*
Kohut, John 31 LR 46 146 14 36 5 1 3 20 7 35 0 0 2 .247 .277 .356 2
Day, Jarrod 26 LR 4 12 0 2 1 0 0 2 2 3 0 0 0 .167 .286 .250 /2
Going into 1970 the Reds had to have at least a little bit of trepidation regarding whether or not
Oliver Williams would be able to fill the shoes of the departed Mike Lopez. Not only did he fill them, he mostly made Reds fans forget about the slugging backstop. Williams isn't flashy or the kind of guy who calls clubhouse meetings. He just does the job day in, day out. That was enough for the 26 year old to make the All-Star Game in his first season as the Reds' starting catcher. It'll be interesting to see how his career proceeds. The .274 average seems high, as he's got catcher levels of speed and while he's much less prone to whiffs than the old guy, he's doesn't exactly possess world-class bat control either. Cincy promoted long-time farmhand
Josh Kohut into the backup role. As a left-hander he was able to spell Williams against tougher RHPs but even with the platoon advantage he didn't actually hit all that well.
Infield
Code:
Batting Age BT G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS DP BA OBP SLG Pos
Clark, Stephen 32 LL 154 614 69 155 29 1 16 84 33 41 0 0 18 .252 .294 .381 3*
Rivera, Alonzo 22 LL 58 65 12 19 3 2 3 14 13 6 0 1 0 .292 .413 .538 /37
Madison, Johnny 37 RR 5 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 .250 .400 .250
Ortiz, Pedro 27 RR 154 656 98 201 26 12 6 56 69 39 26 22 7 .306 .369 .410 4*
Kraljevic, Bobby 27 LR 152 563 109 167 29 3 14 89 123 51 0 3 21 .297 .421 .433 5*/6
Guerrero, Fidelio 24 LR 16 41 5 11 2 0 1 8 7 7 2 0 1 .268 .375 .390 /53
Ramos, Mike 33 LR 7 10 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .100 .100 .200 /5
Wendt, Mike 26 RR 154 576 102 152 18 12 15 71 47 136 31 5 11 .264 .326 .415 6*
Downing, Matt 36 RR 52 91 5 22 4 1 0 9 8 14 1 0 0 .242 .291 .308 64/5
5-time All-Star
Stephen Clark was never quite able to get his hitting on track - he led the league in hitting twice when he was younger but his .252 average last year was the lowest of his career. He did show some spurts of his older self, like a .288/1/21 May and a .297/5/24 July, but while he puts the ball in play as much as ever, a lot of those balls turned into pop-ups or groundouts where before they'd be line drives. The Reds have to still be happy with his clutch hitting, at least. Heading into 1971 he looks to be challenged by
Alonzo Rivera, who was the #26 prospect in the major leagues last year and was called up early to pinch-hit. He did surprisingly well in that role for a young player but he needs to play every day. Also, he's a pretty decent fielder at first base; teammates in the minor leagues called him "The Octopus" due to his ability to snag anything thrown near him.
Pedro Ortiz played second and hit second all season long, made his 4th consecutive All-Star Game, and turned in yet another season as a fan favorite. He even led the league in at-bats, which you do when you hit that high in the order and don't walk a huge amount, and finished in the top 10 in the NL in hits (5th), triples (5th), steals (7th), runs (9th), and average (10th). In a league where availability is the best ability, Ortiz has also played in at least 136 games in all 4 years he's been a starter.
Bobby Kralcevic excelled in his first full season as the Reds' starter, leading the league in on-base percentage and finishing 2nd in walks. This also led him to get 109 runs mostly batting 3rd. As a third sacker, his arm is exemplary, perhaps the best in all of baseball. There really seems to be nowhere to go but up with this guy.
So, one thing that could keep the Reds from repeating next year is that going up and down the lineup it's clear that they stayed very, very healthy last season. A lot of this is I think due to the relative youth of the roster - these guys haven't been in the league long enough to get injury-prone - but you also have a team here where the starters by and large just plain played the whole season.
Mike Wendt is a great example of that. He's a good defensive shortstop who also puts up a lot of value in a variety of ways - mid-teens homerun pop, a lot of speed, some gap power, and a surprising amount of clutch hitting for a middle infielder. There's nothing wrong with him but do you really expect a guy who gives up his body as much as Wendt does to play 154 games? I guess when he's 26 that's still reasonable, I don't know.
Outfield
Code:
Batting Age BT G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS DP BA OBP SLG Pos
Cannon, Junior 26 LL 121 430 87 120 14 1 28 99 100 84 1 1 10 .279 .413 .512 7*/93
Martinez, Jerry 37 RL 45 103 10 23 3 0 4 10 16 13 0 0 3 .223 .331 .369 7
Ortega, Willie 26 RL 22 71 11 21 2 0 4 12 2 11 0 0 5 .296 .333 .493 7/3
Patterson, Matayahu 34 LL 36 32 1 3 1 0 0 2 3 13 0 0 0 .094 .167 .125 /7
Wilkes, Chris 27 RR 152 564 80 139 10 4 3 49 81 103 16 10 11 .246 .338 .294 8*
Menke, Ben 29 RR 31 54 5 11 3 1 1 12 9 16 2 3 2 .204 .317 .352 8/79
Beaulieu, Bobby 23 SR 9 14 1 3 0 0 1 2 2 6 0 1 0 .214 .313 .429 /89
Jensen, Justin 35 RR 138 460 84 104 12 1 42 96 101 147 0 0 11 .226 .367 .530 9*
Cowan, Greg 29 LL 65 152 16 31 4 1 4 21 14 37 4 1 1 .204 .269 .322 9/738
Colon, Manuel 26 LR 2 2 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.000 1.000 1.500 /9
I feel like
Junior Cannon has both the best name and the worst name in baseball. What I mean is, it really and truly is a great baseball name. It's just... he doesn't have an actual cannon. He's a left fielder primarily because his arm is average at best. You'd even expect him to have a cannon because of his hitting profile but nope, just a somewhat noodly arm. Cannon was the only regular to miss a major amount of time last year - he sat out for most of September with a separated shoulder, an injury that will more than likely further tax that arm.
Jerry Martinez, a former All-Star with the Orioles who's at the end of his career, got most of the at-bats while Cannon was out and, to be honest, was one of the few weak spots in an otherwise packed lineup. They probably could have used Willie Ortega there; sadly, Ortega was the guy they shipped out to the Expos to get Martinez in the first place.
Chris Wilkes patrols the Riverfront Stadium center field well but if theres anywhere this team could use an upgrade, it's there. He's now been the Reds' CF for two seasons and has posted a slugging average under .300 in both of them. The bases on balls and speed lead one to think that maybe he could work as a leadoff man but even leadoff guys need to threaten to hit the ball into the gaps every now and then and Wilkes doesn't do that. Look for the Reds to challenge Wilkes in spring training with 1969 7th overall pick
Bobby Beaulieu. Beaulieu profiles as an even better center fielder and what's more, he looks like the ball jumps off of his bat - he had 52 extra base hits (27/13/12) in 399 at-bats in AAA Indianapolis last season.
Justin Jensen is the old man of this team. He's not exactly the kind of guy who leads either by yelling a lot or by example. When you knock 42 dingers and walk 101 times, you can stand to have some writers complain about your "lack of work ethic". I guess the main point of caution is that sometimes guy like this fall apart quickly and should that happen, the Reds' cupboard is pretty empty in terms of right field prospects - right now the top guys listed are
Russ Deuser, who's really a center fielder and who seems to hit like a center fielder (.226/6/26 at AAA Indianapolis last year) and
Rich Jasso, who looks like he has middling power at best.