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Old 11-22-2020, 09:55 AM   #15
CBeisbol
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Join Date: Aug 2019
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Posts: 2,943
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThePretender View Post
I flat out ignore minor league stats, they're pretty meaningless imo. I don't doubt some players can maintain a high babip in ootp. I don't buy a guy with that avoid k can though.
I don't agree that they are meaningless
I'd expect a decent correlation between minor league rate stats. Especially if there were a control for any change in talent level.

It's my understanding that BABIP is independent of K%/avoid K since BABIP only looks at results that include strike outs. There may even be a slight inverse correlation between BABIP and K%. If K% is a result of "swinging harder" and if swinging harder means hitting the ball harder, it should result in increased BABIP. Might be interesting to look at sometime.


I wrote this some time ago
Quote:
Originally Posted by CBeisbol View Post
Contact is batting average
Avoid K is the inverse of strike outs

There's a high correlation between the two; if a player K's a lot it's hard to have a high batting average.

Because of this correlation, when Contact and Avoid K are similar, BABIP is average.

But, any player who has a high contact and, relatively, low Avoid K they must have a high BABIP to compensate

Imagine players with 600 at bats, 0 walks, 0 home runs

Making up numbers, say that a 50 contact is a .275 batting average
A .275 batting average with 600 at bats is (.275×600) 165 hits

A player with 50 K's would have 550 balls in play
A player with 165 hits on 550 balls in play would have a (165/550) .300 BABIP

A player with 100 K's would have 500 balls in play
A player with 165 hits on 500 balls in play would have a (165/500) .330 BABIP
A player with a high contact rating and low avoid K rating will have a high BABIP by definition
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