[Syd Thrift]

I'm playing a league set in the 40s and I am using the following settings:

Development set to 1.1, aging to 0.9
Talent change randomness to 120
Injuries to high
A few players (probably around 1 a year) are modeled after real-life Hall of Famers who debuted that season
Trades happen based on bbref's transaction log and try to be as much based on what happened in those deals as IRL. Sometimes I have to futz around with them - the spirit of the trade ("acquiring a great hitter in exchange for 2 decent but not great pitchers") is more important than the literal players sent back and forth (as it'd have to be, given that this is a fictional league)

The caveat here is that I like to play in "god mode", meaning I control all of the teams' roster moves/lineups/depth charts/etc. One thing I built this off of was a study I read about NFL QBs a couple years ago that indicated that 50% of the aging decline you see at that position comes in their final season. One way of interpreting that is "when change comes, guys fall off a cliff", but another way is "older players who have bad seasons don't get a chance to repeat themselves", and so I run things where a player who is playing well, especially if it's for a good team won't get replaced in the lineup until they stop playing well. If a guy is raking in the minors I'll try and find *a* place for him but it won't be at the expense of the guy who's still hitting in the bigs (there's even that whole myth of "AAA bat" to explain why teams do this when in fact it's really just going with the person you know instead of the one you don't).

I've done this in a couple of other situations and I think that overall, even though the universe probably doesn't advance as quickly as a lot of people would prefer it does, it seems to all work out. Older players retain enough of their value that if I really want a team to keep playing them to hit a milestone or for popularity-based reasons, they won't do it hitting like .150 or something, and even though high draft picks are often ready to play after just a season or two in the minors, that concept of being "blocked" still keeps a lot of them from moving up until later.

I'm in August of 1948, having started this particular league in 1946, and here's what the top 10 picks of '46 are doing right now:

1. C Nate Cucci (NYY) - Is on the Yankees' AAA team in Newark, where he's hitting 295/405/415, but is blocked by them having two really great players in the bigs (one of whom is a player I modeled after Yogi Berra) and who as such will probably wind up being trade bait.

2. CF Caleb Gagnon (NYG) - Is hitting 272/356/438 in AAA Jersey City, which is... fine, but the incumbent is hitting 278/341/458 with better defense, so a move to a corner OF spot is probably more in the works... except that for the Giants, their LF is their #3 hitter and a lock to hit .315 every year, and their RF is their cleanup guy. Also probably eventual trade bait...

3. SS Cameron Abbott (BRK) - Has split the year between AA Fort Worth and AAA St. Paul (the Dodgers have an additional, higher AAA team in Montreal). He's hitting really well but again, the Dodgers already have a guy there. That guy, Ken Davidson, is not hitting well this season (234/327/369), although he's still a 2-time All Star, so he's going to be tough to dislodge.

4. 2B Ethan Taylor (CLE) - Made the Opening Day roster this season but has mostly been a backup until recently. Larry Sloan (a player I modeled after Larry Doby) was starting at Taylor's position until recently, when ineffectiveness on the part of the Tribe's corner outfielders (both of whom were acquired in pretty big offseason trades) came to a head and I moved Sloan to LF. He has 95 big league at-bats.

5. CF Chris Ballinger (BOA) - Traded to the Browns over the offseason as part of a package that netted them 3 time All-Star C John Prive. Ballinger shot up 3 levels this season, starting with San Antonio (AA) then moving to Toledo (AAA), and finally getting a shot in the majors, although that's probably as much due to the Browns' lack of success as anything else. Balinger is hitting .240 in 50 major league at-bats.

6. 3B Jason McGannon (STL) - Displaced last year's starter Chad Cannon, who hit .320 and made the All-Star Game last year but was absolutely atrocious with the glove (-10 ZR last year). Perhaps I moved him up too quickly but damn, Cannon was bad, and on top of that he stopped hitting this year as well. So far, McGannon has been... meh in 60 starts, hitting .254 without much power but at least not being a black hole in the infield. The Cards are on top of the NL right now but are there in spite of a bad pitching staff that needs all the defensive help it can get.

7. 3B Rich Duran (NYY) - Was handed the 3rd base job in 1947 and hasn't looked back. He's easily been the star of that draft so far, although he's yet to make a trip to the All-Star Game.

8. 3B Kareem Bailey (BSN) - Looks like he was a casualty of the Braves and Tigers swapping minor league clubs in '47, although he has fallen down the top prospect list since he was originally graded the 12th best prospect in the league (the last one he appeared on in April of this year, he was 97th). A fantastic campaign in Hartford (A) led him to be called up to Little Rock (AA) this year, where he's been... fine. The Tigers' incumbent 3B Zach Ebeling has been a beast this season (.324, 17 HR, 54 RBI) and so he's looking slightly blocked at the moment, assuming he gets out of AA.

9. 2B Jeff Klotz (DET) - A solid campaign in Little Rock (AA) saw him recently called up to AAA Seattle, where he's hit .322 in 13 games. The Tigers' leadoff hitter Jim Koressel is also their 2nd baseman, although I wouldn't say he has a lock on the position (.251, 77 runs, and 9 SBs with virtually no power this year).

10. SS Alexis Reyes (PHN) - The fact that he's been in Utica (A) for three seasons running is more of a function of the Phillies' tiny minor league system than any indictment on him. He really only plays SS, which makes him sort of blocked at that position by Franklin Melo, but not really: Melo (.260, 5, 52) is JAG at the position, really.