Quote:
Originally Posted by dkgo
Those numbers are true in general, but the offensive team can play very differently when instead of trying to maximize expected runs they are only trying to maximize the chance of scoring exactly one.
I wouldn't intentionally walk automatically, but I'd be sure not to throw anything hittable either.
|
Not really, though. The chance of scoring 1 run if you sacrifice the runner to 3rd only increase to 66.0% (1 out, runner on 3rd) - which, if a sacrifice is successful at an 85% rate pretty much makes it a break even proposition - and from there quite frankly teams do not squeeze bunt very often. There’s a reason why “scoring position” starts at 2nd, not 3rd: it’s very easy for a fast runner to score from either base on a base hit to the outfield, likely easier than normal if the batting team gets to choose their runner.