Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover36
The data collected from perfect team sim's is not relevant if the ratings aren't correct going in.
What I am saying is that if you created a specific year solo game with the ratings generated for all players (which I assume is generated by their algorithm). Using historical lineup and transactions sim that season 100x times. When you add up all the stats per player from those 100 sim and found the average season totals for each player, they should come within a close approximation of that players performance in that specific season. Do that for all players, all season, you could calculate more accurate ratings for players.
What it feels like is happening right now is a close enough rating is applied to players. Something that "feels about right". However if you used the ratings for those players in a solo season for that specific year, you get nothing close to actual performance.
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They use an algorithm to create ratings out of the stats. They’ve been using the same basic algorithm for nearly 20 years and it comes pretty close for pretty much any season at this point. They don’t spend that kind of time beta testing individual historical seasons because that kind of curated season content is not what they sell (that’s more Strat-o-Matic’s thing). Which, besides, if the model works, all running simulations against the model does is prove that the model works. And if it doesn’t, you don’t change individual ratings, you figure out what caused the model to churn out bad stats and fix it. I am *sure* this kind of generalized testing has been done.
PT is not of course running against some kind of historical baseline. Your 1930 Hack Wilson doesn’t get to play against 1930 Claude “Weeping” Willoughby or Leo Strickland (who still holds iirc the record for most IP with more runs allowed than IP). Playing nothing but stars vs stars is going to do screwy things with the numbers, even if the ratings were originally “right” for the era/season/etc.