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Old 09-14-2015, 08:29 PM   #2
kq76
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I wondered what the difference in expected points between the two was now and apparently it's zero:

Quote:
According to Burke: "Analytically speaking, coaches should now generally be indifferent to the extra-point and two-point conversion, at least during most of the game until time becomes a factor. Rationally, if a scoring team believes it has a better-than-typical chance at a successful conversion (better than 47 percent), it should go for two. And if they believe that kicking conditions are poor (less than 95 percent), they should also go for two."

In other words, analytics suggest going for two rather than attempting a 33-yard extra point if teams feel good about a matchup or if there are any factors -- weather or otherwise -- that could further inhibit the potential success of a 33-yard extra point.
Everything you want to know (and then some) about NFL's new PAT rule - NFL Nation - ESPN

So the way I read that, if there's bad weather or if you like your offense over their defense, go for the 2. And you'd have to think time left and game score should also influence what you go for. So we should have a lot more 2 point tries now, but my guess is a lot of coaches are still going to play it safe.
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